Thesis ((Ph.D. (Mathematics Education)) -- University of Limpopo, 2016 / The focus in this thesis was on the approaches that seek to compare two study arms
in the absence of randomisation when the interclass correlation coefficient is greater
than zero. Many reports on performance of learners in Grade 12 have used ordinary
regression models (such as logistic regression model and linear regression models)
which ignore clustering effect, and descriptive statistics (e.g., averages and standard
deviations for continuous variables, and proportions expressed as percentages and
frequencies). These models do not only bias point estimates but also give falsely
narrow confidence intervals. The study was applied to two of the nine provinces of
South Africa: Gauteng Province and Western Cape Province in 2008, 2009 and 2010
academic years.
Causal models, and in particular, hierarchical models (or disaggregated approach),
unlike descriptive analyses, are more powerful as they are able to adjust for individual
covariates. For the analysis of continuous variables; Western Cape Province was
expected to significantly score higher marks than Gauteng Province in 2008 (Crude
estimate: 0.782) and 2009 (Crude estimate: 0.957 ) while Gauteng Province was
expected to score higher marks than Western Cape Province in 2010 (Crude estimate:
−0.302). Adjusted models indicate that Western Cape Province performed better
than Gauteng Province in 2008 and 2009 but not in 2010 where Gauteng Province
performed better than Western Cape Province after adjusting for gender. In case of
binary outcome; the crude estimates favoured Western Cape Province than Gauteng
Province in 2008 (Odds ratio = 1.16) and 2009 (Odds ratio = 1.19). Otherwise, the
crude estimates favoured Gauteng Province in 2010 (Odds ratio = 0.11).
The proportion of female learners in Gauteng Province ranged between 54.48% and
54.99%, while in Western Cape Province it ranged between 56.78% and 57.16%, in
2008 through 2010 academic years. Proportion of female learners in Western Cape
Province were found to be higher than those in Gauteng during this period. At least
70.42% of learners in Gauteng and at least 73.96% of learners in Western Cape
Province passed Grade 12 during the years 2008 to 2010.
Through the application of causal model we have learned that although gender is
not a significant predictor of the overall learner performance in Grade 12, the effect
of gender gave the mixed findings depending on the nature of the outcome. The
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effect of gender on continuous endpoint (marks) suggests that a model of single-sex
classrooms or single-sex schools may be adopted so as to mitigate the inherent
perceptions and stereotype regarding learner-gender. However, the results based on
binary endpoint (pass/not pass) suggest that coeducation system is the best bet.
A school quintile is a significant predictor of the overall learner performance in the two
provinces. The resourceful schools are more likely to produce learners with higher
marks. Also, the resourced schools than the less or under resourced schools are
more likely to produce the favourable results (higher marks (%) or/and pass) in the
two provinces.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:ul/oai:ulspace.ul.ac.za:10386/4254 |
| Date | January 2016 |
| Creators | Letsoalo, Maupi Eric |
| Contributors | Maoto, R. S., Masha, J. K., Lesaoana, M. |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis |
| Format | xxi, 186 leaves |
| Relation |
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