This research aims to identify to what extent the primary drivers of migration gain influence due to social contagion effects – in other words, to what extent the metaphor of an “epidemic” can be used to describe emigration. The scope of the research is limited to the migration of individuals from South Africa to countries abroad. A model is developed as a means with which to analyse the premise that social contagion influences migration due to its effect on the underlying driver's thereof. Results obtained through analysis of secondary data reveal the primary drivers of migration, their trends and their relative influence within the population. Results obtained through simulation revealed that the impact of general crises attributable to a particular determinant of migration is fleeting and that increased rates will subside in time. In contrast, as random isolated events related to the primary drivers of migration increase in frequency and intensity, so too does migration. In addition, drivers disseminated through social contagion discouraging migration from South Africa are found to be capable of negating the influence of the determinants of migration. Copyright / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2010. / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / unrestricted
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:up/oai:repository.up.ac.za:2263/25264 |
| Date | 04 June 2011 |
| Creators | Nash, Graham |
| Contributors | Barnard, Helena, ichelp@gibs.co.za |
| Publisher | University of Pretoria |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Dissertation |
| Rights | © 2010, University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretori |
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