Accurate prediction of officer loss behavior is essential for the planning of personnel policies and executing the U.S. Army's Officer Personnel Management System (OPMS). Inaccurate predictions of officer strength affect the number of personnel authorizations, the Army's budget, and the necessary number of accessions. Imbalances of officer strength in the basic branches affect the Army's combat readiness as a whole. Captains and majors comprise a critical management population in the United States Army's officer corps. This thesis analyzes U.S. Army officer loss rates for captains and majors and evaluates the fit of several time series models. The results from this thesis validate the time series forecasting technique currently used by the Army G-1, Winters-method additive.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:nps.edu/oai:calhoun.nps.edu:10945/1912 |
| Date | 06 1900 |
| Creators | Sparling, Steven J. |
| Contributors | Buttrey, Samuel E., Hoffmann, Arthur J., Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)., Operations Research |
| Publisher | Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School |
| Source Sets | Naval Postgraduate School |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis |
| Format | xiv, 83 p. : col. ill. ;, application/pdf |
| Rights | Approved for public release, distribution unlimited |
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