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A time series analysis of U.S. Army officer loss rates / A time series analysis of United States Army officer loss rates

Accurate prediction of officer loss behavior is essential for the planning of personnel policies and executing the U.S. Army's Officer Personnel Management System (OPMS). Inaccurate predictions of officer strength affect the number of personnel authorizations, the Army's budget, and the necessary number of accessions. Imbalances of officer strength in the basic branches affect the Army's combat readiness as a whole. Captains and majors comprise a critical management population in the United States Army's officer corps. This thesis analyzes U.S. Army officer loss rates for captains and majors and evaluates the fit of several time series models. The results from this thesis validate the time series forecasting technique currently used by the Army G-1, Winters-method additive.

Identiferoai:union.ndltd.org:nps.edu/oai:calhoun.nps.edu:10945/1912
Date06 1900
CreatorsSparling, Steven J.
ContributorsButtrey, Samuel E., Hoffmann, Arthur J., Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)., Operations Research
PublisherMonterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Source SetsNaval Postgraduate School
Detected LanguageEnglish
TypeThesis
Formatxiv, 83 p. : col. ill. ;, application/pdf
RightsApproved for public release, distribution unlimited

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