The thesis contains four essays, covering topics in the field of real-time macroeconometrics, forecasting and applied macroeconomics. In the first two chapters, I use recent techniques developed in the "nowcasting" literature in order to analyse and interpret the macroeconomic news flow. I use them either to assess current macroeconomic conditions, showing the importance of foreign indicators dealing with small open economies, or linking macroeconomic news to asset prices, through a model that help us interpret macroeconomic data and explaining the linkages between macro variables and financial indicators. In the third chapter, I analyse the link between macroeconomic data in real-time and the yield curve of interest rates, constructing a forecasting model which takes into account the peculiar characteristics of the macroeconomic data flow. In the last chapter, I present a Bayesian Vector Autoregression model built in order to analyse the last two crisis in the Eurozone (2008-09, and 2011-12) identifying their unique characteristics with respect to historical regularities, an issue of great importance from a policy perspective. / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:ulb.ac.be/oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/308164 |
| Date | 25 June 2020 |
| Creators | Caruso, Alberto |
| Contributors | Weil, Philippe, Gassner, Marjorie, De Mol, Christine, Aldashev, Gani, Reichlin, Lucrezia, Giannone, Domenico |
| Publisher | Universite Libre de Bruxelles, Université libre de Bruxelles, Faculté Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, Bruxelles |
| Source Sets | Université libre de Bruxelles |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis, info:ulb-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis, info:ulb-repo/semantics/openurl/vlink-dissertation |
| Format | 3 full-text file(s): application/pdf | application/pdf | application/pdf |
| Rights | 3 full-text file(s): info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess | info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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