Over the course of the last century, humans have witnessed drastic levels of global environmental change that endangered both, the survival of single species as well as biodiversity itself. This includes climate change, in both environmental means and in variance and subsequently frequent extreme weather events, as well as land use change that species have to cope with.
With increasing urbanization, increasing agricultural area and increasing intensification, natural habitat is not only lost, but also changes its shape and distribution in the landscape. Both aspects can heavily influence an individual's fitness and therefore act as a selective force promoting evolutionary change.
This way climate change influences individuals' niches and dispersal. Local adaptation and dispersal are not independent of each other. Dispersal can have two opposite effects on local adaptation. It can oppose local adaptation, by promoting the immigration of maladapted indi-
viduals or favor local adaptation by introducing better adapted genotypes. Which of those effects of dispersal on local adaptation emerges in a population depends on the dispersal strategies and the spatial structure of the landscape. In principle an adaptive response can include adjustment of the niche optimum as well as habitat tolerance (niche width) or (instead) ecological tracking of adequate conditions by dispersal and range shifting. So
far, there has been no extensive modeling study of the evolution of the environmental niche optimum and tolerance along with dispersal probability in complex landscapes. Either only dispersal or (part of ) the environmental niche can evolve or the landscapes used are not realistic but rather a very abstract representation of spatial structures.
I want to try and disentangle those different effects of both local adaptation and dispersal during global change, as well as their interaction, especially considering the separation between the effects of increasing mean and increasing variance. For this, I implemented an individual based model (IBM), with escalating complexity.
I showed that both on a temporal as well as on a spatial scale, variation can be more influential then mean conditions.
Indeed, the actual spatial configuration of this heterogeneity and the relationship between spatial and temporal heterogeneity affect the evolution of the niche and of dispersal probability more than temporal or spatial mean conditions. I could show that in isolated populations, an increase of an environmental attribute's mean or variance can lead to extinction, under certain conditions. In particular, increasing variance cannot be tracked forever, since increasing tolerance has distinct limits of feasibility. Increasing mean conditions can also occur too fast to be tracked, especially from generalist individuals. When expanding the model to the metapopulation level without a temporal environmental trend, the degree of spatial vs.temporal heterogeneity influenced the evolution of random dispersal heavily. With increasing spatial heterogeneity, individuals from extreme and rare patches
evolve from being philopatric to dispersive, while individuals from average patches switch in the opposite direction.
With the last expansion to a different set of landscapes with varying degrees of edge density, I could show that edge effects are strong in pseudo-agricultural landscapes, while
in pseudo-natural habitats they were hardly found, regardless of emigration strategy. Sharp edges select against dispersal in the edge patches and could potentially further isolate populations in agricultural landscapes.
The work I present here can also be expanded further and I present several suggestions on what to do next. These expansions could help the realism of the model and eventually shed light on its bearing on ecological global change predictions. For example species distribution models or extinction risk models would be more precise, if they included both spatial and temporal variation. The current modeling practices might not be suffcient to
describe the possible outcomes of global change, because spatio-temporal heterogeneity and its influence on species' niches is too important to be ignored for longer. / Mögliche evolutionäre Reaktionen auf Landschaftsheterogenität und systemische Umwelttrends
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:uni-wuerzburg.de/oai:opus.bibliothek.uni-wuerzburg.de:21669 |
| Date | January 2020 |
| Creators | Sieger, Charlotte Sophie |
| Source Sets | University of Würzburg |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | doctoralthesis, doc-type:doctoralThesis |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Rights | https://opus.bibliothek.uni-wuerzburg.de/doku/lic_ohne_pod.php, info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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