This paper develops a stochastic model for the growth of two interacting populations: when one species preys upon the other. The spatial distribution of the populations is considered, that of the prey being assumed to be clustered and quasi-uniform. This latter distribution is discussed in some detail, and it is found that, although it has been suggested that clustering of the prey may be a protective device against predators, any differences in the stochastic models for clustered and unclustered populations lie only in the constant coefficients involved in the formulation of the model. The approach used in developing the proposed model is that of Chiang. The size of the prey and predator populations; are assumed to be random variables X(t) and Y(t) respectively, and certain assumptions are made concerning the birth-rate and death-rate In either population. These assumptions are based on the deterministic equations (formula omitted). These equations are modifications of equations published by Leslie in 1958. Differential equations are developed for the rate of change of the probability that X(t)=x and Y(t)=y, by giving transition probabilities in some small interval of time and letting the interval shrink to a point. Hence differential equations, for the rate of change of the joint probability generating function of X and Y, and for the rate of change of the joint factorial moments of X and Y are obtained. Because of the complicated nature of these equations, however, no attempt is made to solve them. / Science, Faculty of / Mathematics, Department of / Graduate

Class of 2008 Abstract / Objectives: Use of expired and unused prescription medication in the elderly population is not clearly defined. Improper use of medication can lead to serious adverse drug events and poor health outcomes. More information on the actual use of expired and unused medications in the elderly population may help in determining the need for future education of this population on this subject. Methods: A total of 72 people 65 years or older completed an anonymous survey about use of expired and unused medication. The completed survey was returned by mail. The data was extracted into a database and analyzed using chi-squared, averages, and percentages. Results: The data showed that there was no significant difference between the age groups with respect to willingness to share medications with family or friends. The population was predominantly white, and most respondents had completed some level of college education. The results showed 69.4% of respondents would share at least one category of medication with a friend or family member. 56.9% of respondents would share at least one category of medication with a friend, and 66.7% would share at least one with a family member (p=0.23). Respondents indicated they would take 23.4% of the medications listed as being in their possession if they were expired and would only share only 6.9% of the listed medications with a friend or family member. Conclusions: This data demonstrated that this population was reluctant to share medications they actually possessed, but were theoretically willing to share some categories of medications. More research needs to be done to assess use of expired medications and medication sharing in all populations, and especially in the elderly population.

This thesis presents a comparison over time of the fertility control policies of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. It is a search for commonalities and idiosyncracies among the determinants of the three major elements of fertility policy, namely: (i) the fertility policy fact, (ii) shifts up or down in the vigour or coerciveness of fertility policy, and (iii) specific measures taken to control population growth on the subcontinent. The development of these policies is divisible into three distinct phases. In the first phase the appearance of fertility control on the public policy agenda is explained. The shift into the second phase -- in which government activity in these countries took a dramatic upturn — is then accounted for. This shift occurred when it became apparent that motivation of fertile couples was at least as important as providing them with the means to prevent conception, and was, accordingly, marked by a succession of "crash programmes" to attain both these objectives. In the third phase -- characterized by experimentation with policy concepts which go beyond the traditional practices of family planning -- India's experience with compulsion in fertility control policy is described and explained in contrast to her own and other countries' past policies. The whole range of determinants of these shifts and choices is divided into five categories of analysis: environment, power, ideas, institutions, and process. The most important of these is highlighted for each successive shift in policy direction. The thesis argues that the overall pattern of fertility control policy-making reveals that shifts in commitment occurred largely as a result of choices by individual leaders who responded to changes in the demographic and economic environments and, --in accordance with what they perceived to be politically feasible — attempted to affect that environment. / Arts, Faculty of / Political Science, Department of / Graduate

No description available.

This study examines older persons’ hopes, fears and expectations for the future, a topic little explored in Hong Kong. The study of twenty-five people aged 65-85 years adopts a qualitative approach to explore the experiences that shape older persons’ views of their future lives. Three models emerged from the empirical study, namely The Model of Resignation, The Model of Predestination and The Model of Adaptation. The findings suggest that respondents who had and still have little social support from friends tend to live very much in the present; they do not look forward to the future nor do they have a strong anticipatory sense of it. In addition, the research identifies “turning points” related to life events mainly in the domain of marriage, health, work and living arrangements that shape people’s attitudes toward their future. Turning points are identified by individuals as a moment when life is redirected into a different path. Turning points continue to influence subsequent events over their life-course. The concept of turning points helps us understand the life trajectories and transitions throughout the life-course. The research also identifies variables that influence respondents’ perceptions of their future. This research indicates that current living environment and living environment does not appear to play an important part in how respondents view their future. Respondents who believed they had performed their responsibilities to their family and society or have strong religious belief did not report any fears related to their health. Respondents who failed to maintain good marital relationships in the past or in the present did not create future hopes in the domain of social relationships. The study further investigates how older people translate their future hopes into daily activities and how they obstruct fears of the future. Furthermore, the research finds that respondents reported their own health and the well-being of their family members as the most important life domain. The research provides both formal and informal caregivers with ideas suited to motivating older persons to think positively about their daily lives and their future.

Mass tutoring on senior secondary curricula, with specific focus on examination syllabi and techniques, has expanded rapidly in Hong Kong in the recent decade. Through semi-structured in-depth interviews, conducted in summer 2007, with 20 certificate level (Secondary 4 and 5) and 21 advanced level (Secondary 6 and 7) students with various level of involvement in mass tutoring, this study discovered: (1) Risk awareness and future-oriented mentality: Students expected that mass tutoring could help improve their performance in public examinations, and could secure good grades. To them, better grades mean higher chance to get a recognized qualification, fulfil their career aspiration, and secure a better life in the uncertain future. (2) Individualization of decisions and choices: Students thought that they should be responsible and accountable for their own life-choices. The decision to enrol in mass tutoring was made on their own. When they needed advice on choices of tutors, they referred to the opinions from the schoolmates with similar learning experience and academic performance as themselves. In order to locate the most suitable tutors, some students even collected various tutors’ lecture notes or recordings for comparison, or attended free-of-charge trial lessons before finalizing their choices. (3) Individual reflexivity and conditional trust on authority: In terms of enhancement of academic performance, a number of students trusted cram school tutors more than daytime school teachers, as they thought the former more familiar with the examination requirement than the latter. Nevertheless, they did not completely trust their tutors. They evaluated from time to time the effectiveness and suitability of the tutorials they were attending, and discontinued and made changes if necessary. (4) Detraditionalization of schooling values: Students viewed senior secondary education different from more idealistic lifelong learning. In their eyes, getting good grades and preparing for good prospect in further studies and career are of utmost importance in senior secondary schooling. Some of them even preferred daytime school teachers to adopt cram school tutors’ approach. With the above findings, the study argues that the microscopic phenomenon of blossoming mass tutoring enrolment is a reflection of the macroscopic risk culture of late modernity, which has been addressed by Anthony Giddens and Ulrich Beck. The study unfolds several specific qualities of individual life and social environment in the post-industrial era. To deal with the uncertain social environment, individuals prefer adapting to the existing social order rather than imposing changes to the external social environment. Appreciated traditional values not conforming to the modern social order will only be practised only after an individual has achieved ontological security in the highly modernized social environment. Individuals are locked in a cage where they had to endlessly appeal to uncertain measures to deal with the uncertainties embedded in daily life. This study also reveals the unbalanced power between individuals and social structure in the structuration process, and the disparity in power of risk negotiation due to wealth difference in the highly modernized environment, which were under-examined by the proponents of the late modernity paradigm.

Hong Kong is one of Asia’s more demographically-aged cities, with 14% of population aged 65+ in 2012, projected to be 23% by 2025. Facilities and transport are generally good by world standards although the urban environment may not consistently be particularly ‘age-friendly’. Drawing on a range of urban sub-areas, this research investigated the ‘age-friendliness’ of Tuen Mun, a ‘new town’ of half a million population in Hong Kong. This study was also interested in socio-cultural variables and age-friendly cities (AFC) characteristics in its predominantly Chinese population, and relationships with psychological well-being (PWB). A total of 503 participants aged 50 years or above were interviewed in a face-to-face questionnaire survey in Tuen Mun. Two focus groups were held afterwards as a post facto evaluation to ascertain and explain the findings of the survey. Among the WHO’s original eight AFC domains, in this study ‘Social participation’ scored the highest AFC rating. ‘Housing’, ‘Civic participation and employment’, and ‘Community support and health services’ perhaps surprisingly scored the lowest. Interestingly, the ‘higher social group’ (i.e. respondents from private housing, with a higher education attainment and household income) tended to be less satisfied with the AFC domains than the lower social group. An important contribution of this study is therefore to show the importance of considering social variations in attitudes to AFC characteristics, as perceptions/expectations of AFC might vary across different social groups. This study also addressed the potential role of AFC characteristics in influencing older persons’ PWB. AFC, especially the ‘software’ aspects related to social support, were found to have the strongest positive correlations with PWB. A newly-proposed ‘Food and shopping’ dimension appeared to be a salient factor affecting PWB, showing such ‘lifestyle’ items should be included in AFC in Asian settings. The policy implications and the value of the AFC concept in cities such as Hong Kong are discussed.

No description available.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Boston University. / The economic problem of Greece is basically the persistent imbalance between resources and population. Previous attempts to establish the Greek economy on a long-run, sound economic basis by developing the domestic resources of the country fell short of their objective. In the past, the rate of resources utilization through capital investment, technological improvements, and institutional changes has been inadequate to support the growing population at a rising scale of living. Furthermore, post-war population growth may dissipate the economic gains achieved by foreign aid and may lead again to a new economic relapse. In Chapter I a concept of demographic equilibrium is developed which substitutes for the natural subsistence of the Malthusian equilibrium the concept of conventional subsistence and takes into consideration the attitudinal aspects of the people with regard to the scale of living. The objective of economic development is accepted as the establishment of conditions of demographic equilibrium achieved by a rate of resources utilization higher than the rate of population increase that results in a rising scale of living in accordance with desired standards. The approach in this study is historical and statistical. The objective is to analyze the direction which economic progress has taken in the past and to observe to what extent previous attempts were successful or unsuccessful in altering the course of economic change under a continuously growing population. Present developments are better understood when they are observed through conclusions drawn from past experience. The importance of natural resources is emphasized in Chapter II. The belief held among geographers that Greece constitutes an integral part of a world region termed AEgeis, a region occupying the greatest part of the eastern Mediterranean basin, cannot be explained without the presence of limited domestic resources on the Greek peninsula. These limited resources forced the surplus population to colonize and contributed to an economic prosperity based principally on transport-commerce- service activities. In the long history of Greece, the economic prosperity of the Greek peninsula was externally conditioned, depending on the changing economic significance of the region. In Chapter III a statistical analysis is conducted concerning the extent and nature of Greece's dependence on foreign trade. The propensity to trade and the per capita trade of Greece are the highest in the world. Measurements reveal that most of the increase in trade was necessary for the support of a growing population at an almost stationary scale of living. The persisting imbalance between population and domestic resources is also evidenced by a chronic trade deficit. Increasing visible imports were not met by a corresponding increase in visible exports. The deficit was met by invisible exports and borrowing. Furthermore, the chronic trade deficit indicates that Greece has never passed the borrowing stage. A cyclical trade disequilibrium was superimposed on the secular trade deficit. Measurements show that both visible and invisible export receipts are relatively more elastic than import expenditures. The nature of Greece's trade dependence is further explained by the monocultural character of the economy and the fact that Greece is a small buyer and seller in world trade. Post-war foreign aid has contributed little in moderating this monocultural economy. Furthermore, World War II has created some unfavorable conditions for Greek trade. As the balance of payments is a limiting factor on the size of the investment program, high trade dependence seriously restricts the prospects for economic development, and the population factor assumes paramount importance. Further evidence of the persistent imbalance between resources and population is offered in Chapter IV. The Greek economy is investigated during the period of free migrations and trade (1828-1920). The population of Greece increased from 753,000 to 5,017,000. About two-thirds of the increase came from territorial acquisitions. Excess birth rates and some net immigration account for the remainder. Economic conditions in the domestic economy remained practically stagnant. Limited land, a feudal-like land tenure, primitive methods in production, and lack of capital restricted employment opportunities in agriculture. Manufacturing was largely a household operation. Foreign capital, borrowed by the government on heavy terms, was mostly spent on unproductive undertakings and led the country into default. Close correlation was found between the increase in population and imports. Percentwise, visible exports declined, while emigrant remittances and shipping earnings rose in importance. Migratory movements were almost continuous, especially with Greeks settled along the Anatolian littoral. Extensive emigration, especially overseas, at the turn of the century was more than offset by repatriation and the influx of refugees, even before the compulsory exchange of minorities in the Balkans. It is most likely that the scale of living did not improve after the third default of the country in the 1890's. This likelihood, together with the extensive overseas emigration, strongly suggests that conditions of demographic equilibrium were not established. The 1920's witnessed a mass in-migration of refugees and the first inter-war attempt toward economic adjustment. This is the subject of Chapter V. Population increased qy about 1,450,000 to approximately 6,472,000 in 1931. About 300 million 1947-49 U.S. dollars of foreign capital entered the country. Yet, this reconstruction scheme was not successful. The refugee settlement, the agrarian reform, and rising excess birth rates resulted in uneconomic parcelation of the land and small-scale subsistence farming. Extensive cultivation accounts for the largest part of the increase in agricultural production. The growing imbalance between capital-resources and population is evidenced by the increase in labor-absorbing lines of farm production. Despite progress, manufacturing fell short of taking care of the large urban underemployment. Furthermore, manufacturing exports comprised a very small fraction of total commodity exports. A balanced budget, a stabilized currency, and a restored monetary and credit mechanism were an economic bonanza. The depression of the 1930's put an early end to this first scheme. Greece fell into default again. Per capita real income never reached pre-World War I levels during the 1920's. Even with milder or no cyclical effects at all, it is problematic whether the Greek economy would be able to export an adequate surplus to meet foreign loan obligations, much less maintain a rising scale of living. Chapter VI deals with the policy for economic autarchy of the 1930's, which constitutes the second inter-war attempt toward economic adjustment. Total gross investments, mostly forced savings through bootstrap-like operations, are estimated at between 600 and 700 million 1947-49 dollars. Agriculture proper received first and most attention. The weighted index of agricultural production, 1928 : 100, averaged 211 in 1937-38. Despite the drive for intensive production, extensive cultivation accounts for most of the increase in output. The animal-vegetable ratio showed marked signs of declining. The gains in greater output were largely the result of high tariffs. An increase in industrial production was not followed by a corresponding increase in employment. During the 1930's population increased by about 950,000 to 7,345,000 in 1940 because of high excess births. Measurements estimate that Greece had a 1,424,000 "surplus" agricultural population. Most likely, per capita income did not reach pre-World War II levels. Deterioration of nutritional standards through a fall in the animal-vegetable ratio at the consumption level and inferior manufactured goods domestically produced behind high tariffs most probably have taken place. International accounts were balanced and employment opportunities increased, but the policy for economic autarchy fell short of establishing conditions of demographic equilibrium. The subject of Chapter VII concerns the third attempt toward economic adjustment through post-war foreign aid. Widespread destruction, guerrilla warfare, and political instability delayed economic recovery. Finally, by 1952 economic conditions were improved, and the first post-war stable government came into power. However, prospects for maintaining conditions of demographic equilibrium are not encouraging. From over 2 billion dollars of foreign aid, only about 450 raillion were invested in long-run developmental projects. The drastic cut in foreign aid for 1953-54 and the limited availability of capital from domestic and foreign sources emphasize again the importance of population. In the past, continuous population increase has underscored and aggravated the economic difficulties of Greece. Post-war vital statistics indicate that the population of Greece is increasing rapidly, from 10 to 12 per thousand annual rate on the 1951 population census of 7,631,000. Fertility decline depends on the slow process of demographic transition. Emigration on an adequate scale is neither easily attainable nor acceptable on general grounds. At the same time, a higher scale of living is not only socially desirable but regarded as a matter of social justice. The ensuing relative deprivation may result in widely spread social unrest with corresponding political and ideological implications. In the final chapter (VIII) a summary of the findings is made, together with the following concluding remarks: The present rate of resources utilization may prove to be inadequate to support the rapidly increasing post-war population at a rising scale of living. Even prospects brighter than those of the present with respect to availability of capital and the renewal of foreign aid for the continuation of the development program, or to the integration of Greece into a European economy do not justify the absence of attempts on the part of the government to control future population growth.

Population register and its design for Kazakhstan Abstract This project primarily affects the process of creating/ building of population register in the Republic of Kazakhstan. The international experiences of population registration in European countries were used in the process of writing this thesis. Current data collection processing, their legal basis in the registers were also was analyzed. The diploma thesis also described the positive and negative sides of building population registers and usage this approach in Kazakhstan's reality. A census was carried out in Kazakhstan during the writing master thesis. The results of the census can contribute further to improve information base for the establishment of a register of the population based on census. Keywords: Register, Register-Based Census, The Republic of Kazakhstan, Statistics