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Modeling the EU-US Cereal Trade - The Post 'Agenda 2000' AnalysisChintawar, Sachin 22 June 2007 (has links)
Significant changes in attitudes toward farm policy and trade have occurred within the European Union and the United States in the past decade. Trade negotiations under the General Agreement on Tariff and Trade (GATT) specifically the Agreement on Agriculture (AoA) and later under the Doha Round of the World Trade Organization (WTO) have bought about considerable changes in the market structure in the cereals trade. Bilateral trade has further been impacted by the cessation of concession treaties like the Blair House Accord that expired at the end of the 2004 marketing year (WTO).
Domestic budget pressures in the United States have lead to decreased support to farmers, making them more oriented to world market needs based on prevailing world prices (Daryll E. Ray). The European Union has introduced reforms in the Common Agricultural Policy as a consequence of high budgetary expenditure and the accession of the ten new central European nations into the European Union in the form of the Mac Sharry Reforms and the Agenda 2000 Reforms. These reforms are now aimed at decreasing the distortions caused due to the high amount of protection for farm income thus moving towards more targeted farm programs. These economy wise changes internal to each of these major players in agricultural trade in the world, coupled with transformed bilateral trade relations under the auspices of the WTO have had vital effects on bilateral transactions and world markets. These reforms may have had compelling economy wise effects on consumption, production, trade and world prices and could subsequently provoke trade liberalization in other sectors based on the quantification and prediction of welfare effects of such measures by the two trading partners. This study is aimed at reviewing policy changes in the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy and their effects on the cereal trade with the United States. The study contributes to estimating whether changes in the cereal policies of the EU have had a significant impact on the trade between the EU and the US. Further a forecast for the domestic prices for wheat in a free trade scenario is documented with an estimated trend for the exogenous variables.
Results obtained from the suggest that the re-instrumentation of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) by the Mac Sharry Reforms of 1992 and the Agenda 2000 Reforms have had significant effects on trade between the U.S. and the fifteen member countries. The forecast for domestic prices in wheat for the EU suggest a period of decreased prices followed by an increased amount of imports of wheat.
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Analysis of the Impact of Fish Imports on Domestic Crawfish Prices and Economic Welfare Using Inverse Demand SystemsLee, Young-Jae 22 June 2007 (has links)
This study is mainly intended to determine quantitatively the economic effects of crawfish imports on the domestic crawfish industry. Inverse demand systems are used to estimate the price and scale flexibility as an indicator for the effects of imports on crawfish domestic price.
A variety of algebraic forms for empirical consumer allocation models have been developed. Economic theory, however, does not provide the necessary fundamental criteria to choose ex ante among the alternative specifications. Bartern (1993) and Brown, Lee, and Seale (1995) examined a family of inverse demand systems, showing that the integrated demand system, in its own right, has more parameters than any of the component systems, and is, therefore, more flexible. This study also finds that among the different type of inverse demand systems the generalized inverse demand model (GIDS) is a better fit for the data used in this study.
As expected, the cross price flexibility of imported crawfish and scale flexibility in the domestic crawfish equation are shown to be negative, implying that crawfish imports have negative effect on domestic crawfish price and imports of aggregate fish also have a negative effect on the domestic crawfish price. At the same time, cross price flexibilities show either substitutability or complementarity. The Morishima elasticity of complementarity was used as a more adequate measure of interaction between commodities than the coefficients of the Antonelli matrix. The study showed that the elasticities of complementarity are all positive, implying both the tendency toward complementarity and the negativity of the own-quantity elasticities.
As the negativity of cross price flexibility of imported crawfish indicates, domestic crawfish producers will suffer economic losses from increased imports of crawfish, while the domestic crawfish consumer will be better off. Even though the economic loss to the domestic crawfish producers resulting from increases in the imports of crawfish is relatively small compared with the gains to domestic crawfish consumer welfare, the impact of imports is serious to the domestic crawfish industry because the loss is accrued to a small number of domestic crawfish processors. This study however, shows a net social welfare gain from increasing crawfish imports.
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An Economic Evaluation of Sugarcane Combine Harvester Costs and Optimal Harvest Schedules for LouisianaBarker, Francis Gil 12 July 2007 (has links)
Rising production costs, primarily associated with increasing fuel and fertilizer prices, combined with a relatively flat to slightly declining market price trend, have significantly reduced profit margins from sugarcane production in Louisiana over the past few years. Harvest operations are one area in which growers can have considerable influence on costs per unit. Estimation of current sugarcane harvest costs as well as economic evaluation of the impact of various factors on the performance and cost of this production phase are important to growers in conducting these harvest operations as efficiently and cost effectively as possible.
The general objective of this research project was to estimate the current fixed and variable costs of harvesting sugarcane in Louisiana with combine harvest units and to determine optimal harvest schedules for groups of farms delivering sugarcane to a common mill. Using 2004 input prices, average estimated harvest costs were calculated to be $2.41 per ton for fixed expenses and $2.79 per ton for variable expenses, resulting in a total harvest cost of $5.20 per ton. A cost analysis conducted to evaluate the impact of increased truck waiting time at the mill on farm level harvest costs found that for every one minute of waiting time at the farm during harvest operations, the total harvest fuel and labor costs were increased by approximately $1.30 per acre.
An integer linear programming model was developed which simulated the daily delivery of approximately 10,000 tons of harvested sugarcane with the goal of scheduling harvest operations of all farms to better coordinate trucking operations. Results of the linear programming analysis demonstrated that transport operations between farm and mill, which impacts harvest operation efficiency, could be improved with better coordination of harvest operation scheduling across a large group of farms.
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An Hedonic Analysis of Southwestern Louisiana Wetland Prices Using GISXu, Baifu 13 July 2007 (has links)
Louisiana is the beneficiary of more than 30% of the U.S. coastal wetlands, but the states wetland loss accounts for about 90% of the total throughout the continental United States. The Coastal Wetlands Planning, Protection and Restoration Act of 1990 and the $1.9 billion that has recently been dedicated by Congress for coastal restoration activities will certainly aid in restoration efforts. However, these dedicated funds are but a small fraction of the total monies that will be required to maintain/restore Louisianas degraded wetlands. Recent estimates suggest restoration activities will cost, at a minimum, about $14 billion.
The research, based on 119 wetland property transactions throughout Southwest Louisiana, develops an hedonic model which relates price to various property characteristics. These characteristics include type of property (i.e., fresh marsh, intermediate marsh, brackish and saline marsh, open water, and other property), distance from the nearest road, distance from the coast, and whether the property is in an area where projected wetland loss during the next 50 years is anticipated.
Results indicate that fresh marsh and other land (this is a catchall category for property that is not specifically delineated as wetlands or open water) is valued more than open water (on a per acre basis) in the private market. However, intermediate marsh is valued less than open water in the private market. Depending upon the model specification, brackish and saline marsh is valued in the private market as either higher than open water or the same as open water (in a statistical sense). Results further suggest that buyers will, at least to some extent, discount properties in those areas where future wetland loss is anticipated (i.e., prices of properties in these areas are less after controlling for the influence of all other factors). This discounting increases as the rate of projected loss increases. Whether this discounting of future losses reflects previous losses remains untested.
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Analyzing the Cost of Harvesting and the Economic Structure of Florida Grouper FisheryNedelea, I. Cristian 09 October 2007 (has links)
This study uses a translog cost function to investigate the technical and economic relationships present among a sample of Florida grouper longline vessels. The existence of jointness-in-inputs and non-separability between inputs and outputs suggests that resource management should be based on multiproduct production theory, and that explicit recognition of the economic interactions among species should be incorporated in any regulatory process. The cross-price elasticities of input demands showed substitution relationships between input pairs, implying that imposed regulation on the single input will be compensated for by increases in the other inputs. Furthermore, model results showed apparently substantial economies of scope, especially between red grouper and most of the other species in the grouper fishery, product specific economies of scale and multiproduct economies of scale. The technical and economic interrelationships inferred from this study suggest that individual species regulation can generate economic inefficiency by inducing nonoptimal input and output mixes.
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Liability, Institutions, and Determinants of Landowner Access Policies for Fee-Based Recreation on Private LandsHenderson, James Emery 26 October 2007 (has links)
Landowners in the Lower Mississippi Valley or Delta may be willing to consider alternative land uses for some acreage, particularly for marginal agricultural lands. Recreational hunting, fishing, and wildlife watching opportunities on private land for public use may be a possible way to provide income to landowners and restore marginal lands as a contributor to the local economy. Previous studies have identified that landowners often chose not to engage in recreational leasing due to liability concerns. Thus, an institutional change that reduces liability risk to landowners may increase the amount of private land available for public recreation and reduce transaction costs associated with liability mitigation. These possibilities were examined using primary data obtained from a mailed questionnaire sent to agricultural landowners in the Delta region of Arkansas and Louisiana.
About 14% of landowners indicated that they would be willing to allow fee-based recreation under the current institutional environment. If the Arkansas and Louisiana recreational use statutes were amended giving greater liability protection to landowners, the number of landowners that would be willing to allow fee-based recreation on their lands would increase to over 20% in Arkansas and nearly 24% of owners in Louisiana. Clearly, an institutional change that reduces the liability risk to landowners can increase the potential amount of private land that could be used for fee-based recreation, again particularly so for Louisiana. Over 40% of landowners have land that is marginal for agricultural purposes with the average ownership of marginal land being slightly more than 100 acres. Owners of marginal land were particularly responsive to an institutional change providing greater liability protection.
Risk averse landowners were more unlikely and risk seeking landowners were more likely to allow fee-based recreation under the current institutional environment. Following an institutional change it was observed that risk preference was no longer a significant predictor of the willingness to allow fee-based recreation indicating that the element of risk was diminished. Transaction costs associated with liability are evident and amending the recreational use statute appears to produce a reduction in expected WTA reflecting a transaction cost savings to landowners.
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Analysis of Trade on El Salvador Post DollarizationRivera, Jorge Raul 15 November 2007 (has links)
Dollarization has been suggested as an option for emerging economies. This policy might, among other goals, promote trade between a country adopting the dollar and the United States. Recent research suggests that adopting a common currency increases bilateral trade. Those findings have been widely critiqued for the lack of consistency over different currencies specially the case of dollarization.
This thesis is primarily concerned with the impact of dollarization in El Salvador regarding bilateral trade flows. Utilizing the framework of the Gravity Model, bilateral trade flows for 13 trading partners of El Salvador were examined. This study found that dollarization has had a positive effect on bilateral trade flows. The findings were not only large but statistically significant.
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Estimating The Economic Impacts of Hurricane Damage on Coastal Fishing InfrastructureErlambang, Tanza 11 January 2008 (has links)
Two severe Hurricanes, Katrina and Rita, caused devastating damages in the northern Gulf of Mexico during late summer and early fall 2005. Louisiana was the most heavily impacted state, where both storms made initial landfall. The storms caused billions of dollars in damages to public and private infrastructure, with particularly strong impacts to coastal fishing businesses. Numerous assessments of coastal fisheries infrastructure damage were developed by state and federal agencies following the storms. The range of estimates varied greatly (from $275 million to $3.5 billion), because of a wide range of methods and assumptions. This study describes two alternative damage assessment methods that utilize a combination of economic and biophysical data that can be used to produce rapid and geographically-specific estimates of commercial fisheries infrastructure damages.
Using a Geographic Information System (GIS) framework, location data was geo-coded for more than 100,000 addresses of commercial seafood infrastructures in 22 coastal parishes. Economic damage curves for seafood infrastructures were then fit using a combination of primary and secondary data. These damage curves were related to each location using data on maximum storm surge height simulated by the ADCIRC model via the LSU Hurricane Center. The first damage model, a form of partial income capitalization, estimated total damages to commercial seafood infrastructures at $269 million. The second model, in which revenue losses are discounted over a five-year period, produces a total of damage estimate of $455 million. As suspected, of Plaquemines Parish received the highest overall economic damages, as this parish was contained a high concentration of fisheries infrastructure and was the initial point of landfall for hurricanes. Conversely, Cameron Parish, the initial point of landfall for Hurricane Rita, had only the 6th highest damages. This outcome reflects the ability of the models to account for the geographic concentration of fisheries infrastructure, as well as the trajectory and intensity of a particular storm. The results of these applications can be used to guide damage assessments through more strategic allocation of recovery funding for short and long-term objectives.
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An Analysis of the World Shrimp Market and the Impact of an Increasing Import Base on the Gulf of Mexico Dockside PricePoudel, Pawan 24 January 2008 (has links)
As a result of increased cultured activities, the world shrimp market has been expanded significantly during the past two decades. Because the growth in world supply has exceeded that of growth in demand, the deflated world shrimp price has fallen significantly since the mid-1980s. While a large producer of shrimp (primarily in the Gulf of Mexico), the United States is also the worlds largest importer. In general, the Gulf of Mexico dockside price is determined by the world export price and, as such, the Gulf of Mexico price has fallen sharply in recent years. This study quantifies the impact on the U.S. Gulf of Mexico dockside shrimp price associated with increased cultured shrimp activities and concomitant increased exports to the U.S. market.
For purposes of analysis, a set of import demand and export supply equations were estimated. Specifically, import demand equations were estimated for three countries (regions) that account for the majority of shrimp imports the United States, Japan, and the European Union. Similarly, export supply equations, were developed for the three primary warm-water shrimp producing regions Asia, South America, and Central America. Finally, an inverse demand equation associated with U.S. Gulf of Mexico shrimp production was estimated.
Results suggest that the increased cultured production from the three regions has had a significant impact on the Gulf of Mexico dockside price. For example, results indicate that the Gulf of Mexico dockside price is expected to decline by approximately 3.5% for every 10% increase in Asian production of cultured shrimp. Similarly, analysis suggests that the estimated decline in dockside price associated with a 10% increase in South American cultured shrimp production is 2.2%. While an increase in Central American cultured shrimp production was also found to significantly reduce the dockside price, increases in captured shrimp production were found to have a greater impact.
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Best Management Practices Adoption Rates and Alternative Land Usage among Southwest Louisiana Rice ProducersLandry, Heidi 16 November 2007 (has links)
The EPA has identified agriculture to be a major contributor of nonpoint source water pollution. The production of rice poses two major water quality issues: the application of a large amount of water that is held on the field for long periods of time during the growing season and the disposal of that water at a later time in the production cycle.
Louisiana has developed the voluntary adoption of Best Management Practices (BMPs). These practices have been promoted through educational programs such as the Master Farmer program. This program, developed by the LSU AgCenter, targets conservation practices that are both environmentally and economically beneficial.
This study assessed the current adoption of 20 Best Management Practices (BMPs) in the Southwest Louisiana rice industry and provided policy recommendations based on the results. The practices were grouped into five management areas: erosion and sediment management, water management, nutrient management, pesticide management, and wildlife habitat management. A mail survey was conducted to determine producer awareness of water quality legislation, adoption of BMPs, participation in Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) cost share programs, additional sources of on-farm revenue, environmental attitudes, and socioeconomic information.
The results show that the most significant variables include: awareness of the Coastal Nonpoint Pollution Control Act, educational programs and consultation with LCES personnel, attendance of grower meetings, farm size, intention to pass the farm to a family member, and the leasing of the majority of land to others. The recommendations of this study are to continue the promotion of educational programs and producer involvement with LCES agents
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