published_or_final_version / Economics and Finance / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Ohio State University, 2008. / Title from first page of PDF file. Includes bibliographical references (p. 122-129).

This thesis consists of two essays analyzing the effect of uncertainty in macroeconomic and financial settings. Inspired by the counter-cyclical pattern of uncertainty and the role played by capital reallocation in Total Factor Productivity, we propose a theoretical viewpoint on uncertainty-driven business cycles in the first essay. Relying on the interaction between financial market and real sector, we are able to build up a transmission mechanism from uncertainty to business cycle by introducing a financial contract between firms and financial intermediaries. By setting up two types of firm with different production technology in a general equilibrium model, we show that information asymmetry leads firms with financing needs to be financially constrained. Due to information asymmetry, first best case is unachievable and production resources are allocated more to firms without financing needs. When uncertainty changes, the lending decision of financial intermediary also changes, further affecting firms’ production capacities. Production resources are reallocated between the two types of firms which generates fluctuations in TFP and other aggregates. More importantly, firms with financing needs is assumed with better production technology than the one adopted by the other type on average. Increase in uncertainty worsens the informational problem, reduces funds provided to firms with better technology, causes reallocation of resources to the other type, and further decreases productivity of the economy as a whole. This is in line with an economic downturn and also consistent with the counter-cyclicality of uncertainty. We also conduct a quantitative analysis by calibrating the model to the data and the estimated results provide corroborating evidence for the theory. Using a merged data-set of US firms during years 1971-2008, we empirically examine the impact of uncertainty on capital reallocation via financial friction in the second essay. By adopting KZ index as an indicator for firms’ financial statuses, we decompose the uncertainty-capital reallocation relation into three hypotheses. Using cross-sectional dispersion of stock return as a measure for uncertainty, we find that uncertainty is negatively associated with firms’ financial statuses. A firm with high uncertainty level is more likely to be in a low position of financial status. Second, uncertainty is in a negative relation with capital reallocation, which means capital reallocation decreases at firm level when uncertainty increases. Third, by sorting firms into different groups based on their financial statuses, we find that firms which are in worse financial situation are more responsive to uncertainty change. The finding is consistent with our prediction that uncertainty affects capital reallocation through financial friction. We employ both reduced-form and structural estimation strategies to examine our predictions, and all regression results are supportive. To further test the role of financial friction in the relation, we also sort firms into different groups by SIC code. And we find that, firms in industries relying more on financial market for external financing are more responsive to uncertainty change. / published_or_final_version / Economics and Finance / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Chicago, Dept. of Economics, June 1998. / Includes bibliographical references. Also available on the Internet.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Chicago Graduate School of Business, June 1999. / Includes bibliographical references. Also available on the Internet.

做好財富管理需要一個穩健均衡的投資組合資產配置架構，在一個10-15年的景氣循環長期投資市場裡，做好投資組合資產配置，將能使資產配置的報酬率與波動率更趨於均衡與穩健的成長，會比隨投資市場環境的變動，而做單一市場或單一投資標的的集中投資，更能達到資產配置的均衡與穩健。 在財富管理的規畫中，以符合客戶的風險承受能力，來為客戶做均衡的資產配置，找出對客戶最有效率的投資組合，完成穩健均衡的資產配置，才能在不確定的投資市場中立於不敗之地； 資產配置雖然不能快速創造財富，但資產配置才能穩健的保護財富，投資是長期的累積，穩健增值是重點，資產配置才是王道。 藉由投資組合資產配置消除投資市場的非系統風險，若能正確的組合相關性低的投資資產，則在獲得相同的回報下，投資組合資產配置的投資風險可以低於集中投資的投資風險，更能讓高資產客戶的資產配置達到長期的均衡與穩健，並完成每階段的人生財務目標。

The goal of the first part of this thesis is to obtain a high-level theoretical understanding of how an alliance can be managed such that its resources are used in an optimal manner. We propose a pricing mechanism to manage the interactions of carriers, through the allocation of alliance resources and profits, in a manner that encourages individual carriers to make decisions that are optimal for the alliance. Our methodology is based on modeling carrier behavior as linear programs, which are incorporated into a mechanism that manages carrier interactions by appropriately setting resource prices. After introducing two distinct behavioral models, the performance of the mechanism using each model is analyzed for its ability to ensure alliance optimal behavior is attained. We find that the behavioral model selected can significantly impact the characteristics of allocations obtained using the mechanism. In the second part of the thesis, we seek to establish practical insights regarding how the characteristics of potential partners impact the benefit that can be gained by collaborating with these partners. Computational experiments are conducted to evaluate the impact of network size, fleet capacity, demand distribution, and network compatibility on the benefit associated with collaborating. A comprehensive study for simulated two and three-carrier alliances establishes general insights regarding the compatibility of carriers with varying network sizes and fleet capacities. The impact of increasing hub-to-hub connectivity between partnering carriers is then investigated, followed by a study of the effect of market overlap on alliance success. Finally, a real-world cargo alliance is analyzed. In the third and final part of this thesis, we develop new approaches for determining and inducing fair profit allocations in alliances, providing alternatives to traditional approaches which equate minimum acceptance requirements and satisfaction. The mechanism established in the first part of the thesis is adapted to more precisely control the profit allocations obtained, in particular so that an allocation as close to some predetermined fair" allocation is obtained. Several measures of fairness are proposed and implemented, and their performance analyzed for each of the behavioral models discussed in the first part of the thesis.

This thesis studies three asset allocation strategies under a defined-contribution pension plan: Buy-and-hold (BH), constant mix (CM), and time-invariant portfolio protection (TIPP). First in this paper, the actuarial assumptions follow Frees et al (1998), as well as Chang and Lin (1999): the age of the beneficiaries is between 25 to 65 and follows the uniform distribution. As to the investment environment, the portfolio includes a risk-free asset, certificate deposit (CD), and a risky asset--the stock. The interest rate of CD is fixed and the return of stock varies according to 14 scenarios. Then the concept of an open-ended fund is applied to compute the NAV (Net Asset Value) of three strategies for each month and a model of defined-contribution pension funds was developed. Moreover, this thesis also discussed the relationship between the trends of the stock and the changes of stock weights, as well as the terminal wealth of pension fund and the income-replacement ratio under each asset allocation strategy. The characteristics and timing of each strategy can be investigated clearly. Finally, the input parameters derived from the data of historical stock market in Taiwan is used to implement Monte Carlo simulation so that the study of the performance of asset allocation strategies can go more close to reality. The endeavor and results of this thesis will be a useful reference to facilitate both the government and private sector to manage the pension fund.

Real Estate Investment Trusts is suggested as an attractive addition to mixed-asset portfolio. This study develops several hypothesized portfolio and tests whether REITs can actually increase diversification benefits of investors. We use mean-variance spanning test by Kan and Zhou (2008) to examine whether adding a REITs into portfolio can significantly expand efficient frontier in either global minimum variance portfolio or tangency portfolio. We assume our investors hold portfolio in the four markets, namely Japan, Singapore, Taiwan and US markets for period from March 2005 to February 2008. Three hypotheses are tested under various assumed conditions. The first hypothesis, which is REITs can provide diversification benefit, is confirmed in all these four markets. In addition, we find, for Taiwan domestic investors, holding international REITs in their portfolio rather than only Taiwan¡¦s REITs will provide more diversification benefit. The second hypothesis, which is holding period will affect diversification benefit, is not supported. However, this could be resulted from a test of short period in this study. The final hypothesis, which is different investment portfolio will affect the diversification benefit of RETIs for Taiwan domestic investors, is confirmed. Our results also suggest that expanding of efficient frontier are mainly from global minimum variance portfolio rather than tangency portfolio.

Thesis (M.B.A.)--University of Nevada, Reno, 2006. / "December, 2006." Includes bibliographical references (leaves 35-36). Online version available on the World Wide Web. Library also has microfilm. Ann Arbor, Mich. : ProQuest Information and Learning Company, [2006]. 1 microfilm reel ; 35 mm.