¡§Save for a rainy day¡¨, a well known theory proposed in Campbell(1987), indicates that the current consumption depends on the rational prospect of future economy. Nevertheless, within a highly developed economy, individual¡¦s consumption is often affected by various factors, for instance, the rate of time preference, interest rates and inflation, ¡Ketc. Therefore, a rational representative consumer should take all possible information available to them into consideration in making decisions regarding optimal consumption; meanwhile, this will in turn affects a country¡¦s current accounts and domestic credit as well. Based on the viewpoints of consumption-smoothing and permanent income hypothesis, we modify Ghosh(1995a)¡¦s methodology to incorporate one of the most important macroeconomic variables, ¡§money¡¨ into the intertemporal approach to the current account to explore its influence in explaining the difference between theoretically predicted and actual current accounts. In this study, four major industrialized countries: Canada, Japan, the US and UK are investigated by adding money as one of the key elements in explaining their current accounts dynamics. According to the empirical findings, not only the national cash flow (output minus investment and government expenditure) as stated in the literatures but money stock also reflect their influential effects in determinating the dynamic behavior of current accounts also. Therefore, money dose play a crucial role in our extensive method in explaining what traditional method can not explain. Further, we used six kinds of test which are introduced by Diebold and Mariano¡]1995¡^to compare which estimation model has better explaining power to forecast the actual current account. As a whole, the current accounts of these four major industrialized countries indeed acts as a buffer to smooth consumption in facing fluctuations of shocks to national cash flow and money stock.

This paper is based on the viewpoint of the intertemporal substitution of the consumption smoothing. In order to reflection the tendency of economic liberation and the increasing degree of globally regional economic integration, we modify the traditional single-country VAR model which is based on the single country¡¦s economic variable themselves to a cross-country VAR model which is considering international affecting effect. We take one of the most famous region in the world---NATFA¡]North America Free Trade Agreement¡^for example, to investing the Granger causalities between current account and national cash flows within each country, to see if international macroeconomic policy cooperation in the region is necessary or not. In this study, we use six kinds of test which are introduced by Diebold and Mariano¡]1995¡^ to compare which estimation model has better explaining power to forcast the actual current account. Empirical results show that the cross-country VAR estimation model does provide a better estimation about the dynamic performance of current accounts for Canada, US and Mexico. It implies that one¡¦s current account is not only affected by her own economic variable, but also others. We conclude that one country should consider the other countries¡¦ economic performance when making macroeconomic and international trade policies.

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Thesis (doctoral)--Universität Heidelberg.

Thesis (doctoral)--Friedrich-Alexander-Universität zu Erlangen.

Thesis (doctoral)--Universität Freiburg i. B.

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名古屋大学博士学位論文 学位の種類 : 博士(医学)(課程) 学位授与年月日:平成10年6月4日 李鍾國氏の博士論文として提出された

The coastal current is influenced by coastline topography, its advection direction is parallel with coastline because different periodic of wind field function makes the ocean dynamics is more complicated in coastal. In order to treat the effects of topography and wind to coastal current variations, we make long time observation data about ocean and meteorology and analyze them near the harbor of HSinDa in Kaohsiung . This research use bottom Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (bm-ADCP ) , Temperature and Pressure Logger(TP ) , anemometer and wind direction vane to observe flow field ,tidal and wind field in the locality. The collected data are analyzed through a variety of time series analysis technique , such as strain wave, harmonic analysis , Fast Fourior Transform (FFT) analysis that uses different frequency wave bands make an relevant analysis materials and then. The results show that (1) when sea-land breeze was weak, the main axial angle of diurnal tide ellipticity of the current was parallel with the coastline direction. Because the friction of sea flow affected; the ellipticity became smaller and assumed the reciprocal motion¡Fwhen sea-land breeze was stronger, diurnal tide ellipticity of the current was bigger, and main axial angle from coastline parallel changes to follow the sea-land breeze heading. It means sea-land breeze can affect the surface flow motion. (2)When a front passed in winter, it produces the current faced to the southeast along the coast. In the energy spectrum effect, the wind field and the flow field have the same peak of the period, the period was 4 days, 5.5 days, and 8 days, it means that the correlation of the flow field and wind field is good; this result is closed with the observes in land station. (3)In the period of southwest monsoon, there has coastal current toward northwest in the southwest of Taiwan straits. In the other period, the direction of current always moved toward southeast. The result of the low-frequency filter, the flow is smaller than tidal current and wind-drift current. It means that this sea area is affected by tide current and wind-drift current.