Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Chicago, 1994. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 148-152).

The object of this thesis is the analysis of the external debt of countries which are members of the G-8. The external debt is researched through individual sectors of economy. Also there are described debt instruments and all the factors which can influence the external debt. The last part of this thesis analyses situation and development of individual debt instruments and the impact on total external debt.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Maryland, 1993. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 253-265).

In this dissertation, I study international financial crises. For this purpose, I build two models. In the first model, I focus on financial crises in developing, large open economies where foreign debt with various maturities and issue dates is available. The objective is to measure the vulnerability of the domestic financial system to domestically triggered bank runs and externally triggered sudden stops. The main contribution of this model is that both types of crises are treated as rational responses of domestic depositors and international creditors. Such vulnerability measures are linked to fundamentals and equilibrium term structure of foreign debt. Banks’ vulnerability to runs increases if they hold a relatively shorter term debt. Also, a larger cost of liquidating the long-term investment before maturity makes the banks more fragile. In the next step, given a domestic banking crisis, I allow international creditors to decide whether they want to stop lending to domestic banks (in which case a “sudden stop” takes place) or not. A sudden stop is more likely if (i) creditors highly discount future consumption, (ii) creditors’ current income is small relative to their future income, and (iii) the cost of liquidating the long-term investment before maturity is small. In the second model, I investigate the merits of alternative monetary policies with respect to financial fragility. In this monetary model of an explicit financial system, I motivate the demand for two fiat currencies by spatial separation and limited communication of agents. There is a domestic and a foreign currency freely traded without restrictions. I analyze the policy of a constant growth rate of domestic money supply with a floating exchange rate regime. Both currencies are held in positive amounts at the steady-state only if the growth rate of domestic money supply is equal to the world inflation rate (WIR). If the former rate is larger than the WIR, domestic currency is not held at the steady-state. Also, total real money balances held is negatively related with WIR. Finally, monetary policy in the form of a constant growth rate of domestic money supply is neutral with respect to welfare.

In this dissertation, I study international financial crises. For this purpose, I build two models. In the first model, I focus on financial crises in developing, large open economies where foreign debt with various maturities and issue dates is available. The objective is to measure the vulnerability of the domestic financial system to domestically triggered bank runs and externally triggered sudden stops. The main contribution of this model is that both types of crises are treated as rational responses of domestic depositors and international creditors. Such vulnerability measures are linked to fundamentals and equilibrium term structure of foreign debt. Banks’ vulnerability to runs increases if they hold a relatively shorter term debt. Also, a larger cost of liquidating the long-term investment before maturity makes the banks more fragile. In the next step, given a domestic banking crisis, I allow international creditors to decide whether they want to stop lending to domestic banks (in which case a “sudden stop” takes place) or not. A sudden stop is more likely if (i) creditors highly discount future consumption, (ii) creditors’ current income is small relative to their future income, and (iii) the cost of liquidating the long-term investment before maturity is small. In the second model, I investigate the merits of alternative monetary policies with respect to financial fragility. In this monetary model of an explicit financial system, I motivate the demand for two fiat currencies by spatial separation and limited communication of agents. There is a domestic and a foreign currency freely traded without restrictions. I analyze the policy of a constant growth rate of domestic money supply with a floating exchange rate regime. Both currencies are held in positive amounts at the steady-state only if the growth rate of domestic money supply is equal to the world inflation rate (WIR). If the former rate is larger than the WIR, domestic currency is not held at the steady-state. Also, total real money balances held is negatively related with WIR. Finally, monetary policy in the form of a constant growth rate of domestic money supply is neutral with respect to welfare.

No description available.

The external debt is no doubt "a front burner" nowadays, not only in the group of well informed economists or politicians. And although it is regarded as a problem ascribed to the third world countries only, any national economy can bear it. Anyway, neither developed countries are exceptions, despite distinctly small attention which is given to them from the external indebtedness point of view. In my thesis, I decided to link the foreign debt problem with another frequent topic of any discussions: with the really prudent process of the European Union expansion to the East. Primarily, I will try to confute many skewed information about both of them. Or - is the foreign debt really such an uncompromising indicator of the external instability hindering any economic progress? Must thus the relatively successful transformation of the transitive economies pass off with the zero foreign indebtedness entirely?

Sub-Saharan Africa is the poorest region in the world suffering from social, political and economic problems. The study focuses on investigation of relationship of capital flight and external debt to long-term economic growth in this region. Firstly the magnitude of capital flight is computed. Using fixed effects model and random effects model we estimate the impact of external debt and capital flight on long-term growth. Moreover the time structure of debt and its source is integrated into model. Our sample consists of 24 countries from sub-Saharan Africa over the period 1989-2008. We have found that external debt has statistically significant negative impact on growth. On the other hand this impact is economically negligible. The long-term growth is also slowed down by long-term debt and by multilateral borrowing. Concerning capital flight its effect on growth is harmful as well. JEL klasifikace: F34, O47, O55, Klíčová slova: zahraniční dluh, únik kapitálu, Subsaharská Afrika, růst

Durante o século XIX, para financiar a atividade econômica, era comum as jovens nações captarem empréstimos no exterior com pagamento em moeda estrangeira. A prática, chamada de Pecado Original era comum no regime do padrão ouro e objetivava garantir aos credores segurança num mercado financeiro ainda em desenvolvimento, que não oferecia instrumentos de proteção contra a flutuação de moedas não lastreadas e para casos de mercado secundário pouco desenvolvido no país devedor. A prática de fornecer empréstimos com serviço em moeda estrangeira perdura pelo século XX com notável estabilidade, haja vista a retomada do sistema de câmbio fixo (Padrão Dólar-Ouro) durante o Fordismo. Neste período, protegidos pela estabilidade cambial, os países em desenvolvimento fizeram uso da prática de rolagem da dívida para cumprir suas obrigações e obter recursos para custear o crescimento de suas economias. O Brasil foi um bom exemplo desta prática. A crise da década de 1970, porém, põe fim ao regime de câmbio fixo. Com a flutuação das moedas estrangeiras, as taxas de juros internacionais tornam-se mais voláteis, colocando em risco todos os países em desenvolvimento que fizeram uso da estratégia de rolagem da dívida nas décadas anteriores. Em 1979, a elevação das taxas de juros internacionais arremessa a América Latina, em particular, numa crise de grandes proporções. Com a dívida atingindo um patamar considerado impagável, o México decreta moratória em 1982, o que cessa o fluxo de empréstimos para o subcontinente. Para administrar a crise, o FMI propõe em 1982 o pagamento integral dos débitos através do saldo nas balanças comerciais dos países endividados, a ser obtido com a desvalorização cambial. Ao longo da década de 1980, a crise latino-americana se aprofunda, com hiperinflação e recessão. Em 1985, no Plano Baker, o FMI reforça sua posição de 1982, sugerindo, porém, uma elevação dos empréstimos para reduzir a transferência líquida de divisas e, assim, custear o desenvolvimento. O Brasil adota planos econômicos heterodoxos que resultam em fracasso e, em 1987, decreta a moratória parcial de sua dívida. O Plano Baker fracassa e, em 1989, o FMI lança o Plano Brady, que pressupunha a securitização das dívidas e a redução do principal, apropriando-se de parte do desconto então praticado no mercado secundário. Com estas medidas, o FMI abria uma brecha para que os países endividados troquem suas dívidas em moeda estrangeira por títulos a serem pagos em moedas locais. O motivo que leva a esta mudança de postura está relacionado à própria transformação sistêmica da Economia Mundo, além da evolução dos mercados secundários e da emergência da doutrina Neoliberal a nortear as novas diretrizes do Fundo. Em 2005, após renegociar sua dívida e fazendo uso da possibilidade aberta como Plano Brady, o Brasil emite títulos no exterior com pagamento em Reais, rompendo com a cláusula secular do Pecado Original. / During the XIX century, it was very common for nations worldwide to raise debt internationally with payments due in foreign currency to finance economic activity. This practice, known as original sin, was common during the gold standard period, and aimed at ensuring safety to creditors in a financial market yet in development, with a lack of protection instruments against the floating of the unbacked currencies and for cases of an undeveloped secondary market in the debtor country. This practice of providing loans in foreign currency endures throughout the entire XX century with remarkable stability, given the recapture of the fixed exchange rate system (dollar-gold standard) during the Fordism. In said period, protected by exchange rate stability, developing countries made use of a practice called debt rollover to fulfill its obligations and raise funds to sustain its economies´ development. Brazil is a good example of this practice. The 1970 crisis puts an end to the fixed exchange rate system though. With foreign currencies fluctuation, international interest rates became more volatile, endangering all developing countries that used the debt rollover strategy at previous decades. In 1979, the rise in international interest rates puts Latin America in fullblown crisis. With its debt reaching a level considered priceless, Mexico defaults in 1982, ceasing the flow of loan money to the whole continent. Still in 1982, in order to manage the crisis, the IMF proposes the full payment of debts through balance in the trade balances of indebted countries, achieved via exchange rate devaluation. During the decade of 1980, the Latin American crisis deepens, resulting in hyperinflation and recession. In 1985 with the Baker plan, the IMF reinforces its position, but this time suggesting a rise in loans to reduce the net transfer of foreign currency and thus support development. Brazil adopts heterodox economic plans that with frustrating results and, in 1987, partially defaults its debt. The Baker plan fails and, in 1989, the IMF launches the Brady Plan, which involved the securitization of the debt and reduction of principal, appropriating part of the discount then practiced in the secondary market. With these measures, the IMF creates a loophole for indebted countries to switch its foreign currencies debts for bonds to be paid in local currency. The reason leading to this behavior change is not only connected to the very transformation of systemic world economy itself, but also to the evolution of secondary markets and the surge of the neoliberal doctrine guiding the fund´s new guidelines. In 2005, after renegotiating its debt and using the open possibility with the Brady Plan, Brazil issues bonds overseas with payment in Brazilian Reais, breaking the secular clause of the original sin.

Thesis (M.Com (Economics)) --University of Limpopo, 2018 / The burden of public debt is an economic issue, dominating debates in different sectors of our society. The post financial crisis era has been marked with an increasing level of public debt at international, national and sub-national level. The study investigates if public debt can affect economic growth in South Africa, for the period 1995 to 2016. The results for Johansen test of cointegration signposted the existence of cointegration among variables observed in this study. The trace statistic and max-eigen value complimented each other to confirm the cointegration, thus, showing a long run relationship. Furthermore, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is applied to achieve the objectives of the study, complemented by other econometric tests such as, Granger causality, impulse response function and variance decomposition. The VECM results revealed the existence of a short run relationship between public debt and economic growth. Granger causality results have shown that public debt can Granger cause economic growth, and there is bi-direction relationship between the two variables. The results for Variance Decomposition indicate that, a shock to public debt causes 1.509115 % fluctuation in economic growth in the second quarter. In the fourth quarter, a shock to public debt account for 16.39628 % fluctuations in economic growth. This shows that, as time goes on, a shock to public debt account for a high percent of fluctuation in economic growth. The Impulse Response Function has shown that, the period of ten quarters marks a negative response of economic growth to public debt. Thus, one standard deviation shock in public debt will inversely affect economic growth. The diagnostic tests such as serial correlation and heteroskedasticity bode well for the model because, neither serial correlation nor heteroskedasticity has been found. Moreover, the model has shown that the residuals are normally distributed, and also the stability of the model has been confirmed. The study recommends that, since South Africa is a capital scarce country, it is encouraged to borrow so that there is an increase in the accumulation of capital. However, the later stage of borrowing marked with high debt will lead to subdued economic growth. / SETA