This thesis deals with the globalization of production, a salient feature of the modern economy. The development of international outsourcing as a widespread business practice and the simultaneous decrease in trade and transport costs have contributed to the growth of a phenomenon known as global value chains. The main aim of the thesis is to understand how global value chains alter the location of economic activity. The thesis also studies the extent of firms' participation in global value chains and its consequences for firm performance.   The thesis consists of four papers studying the behavior of firms in global value chains. Paper 1 analyzes how production fragmentation influences the importing and exporting behavior of Swedish firms in the manufacturing sector. Paper 2 focuses on manufacturing firms in the ICT sector and analyzes the effect of global sourcing on firm performance. In Paper 3, the thesis examines deeper implications of global production by investigating whether exposure to trade raises firms' sensitivity to external shocks. The final paper in the thesis studies the location patterns of multinational firms and analyzes the effect of institutional distance on the number of multinational entries in developing countries.   A number of patterns emerge from these studies. The first is that Swedish manufacturing firms increasingly participate in global value chains by sourcing production inputs from overseas to create products for local and foreign customers. As a result, global value chains help to alter the specialization patterns of manufacturing firms. The second finding is that firms reap benefits from global sourcing in the form of greater efficiency. However, global sourcing may also raise the responsiveness of firms to negative external shocks. The final key result points to a developing trend in the location of activity in which emerging market multinational firms are becoming significant sources of foreign direct investment flows and their investment patterns challenge existing theories of multinational location choice.

Corporate investment decisions are among the most important decisions of a firm. Internal capital markets play a key role in facilitating the allocation of capital resources in order to finance investment projects within diversified firms. This thesis investigates internal capital markets and its relationship with analysts earnings forecast errors in three countries with two distinct financial systems, namely, the market-based and bank-based financial system. Using segment level data for public listed companies in the UK, France and Germany between 2005 and 2010, we examine the operation and efficiency of internal capital markets in market- and bank-based systems. We also examine the impact of the financial crisis of 2008 on internal capital markets and analysts earnings forecasts errors, namely, the accuracy, bias and dispersion. The findings indicate internal capital markets actively facilitate the allocation of resources within diversified firms and, in general, operate inefficiently. Furthermore, internal capital markets appear to be more active in France compared with the UK. On the other hand, their role appears to be limited in Germany, as segments appear to rely more on their own resources and less on internal capital markets for investments. In addition, we find that internal capital market activity declines and efficiency improves during the financial crisis in UK. In contrast, there is no significant evidence to suggest that efficiency improves during the crisis in France or Germany. This research also finds some evidence to suggest internal capital markets operations aggravate firm complexity and, in turn, negatively affect short-term forecast accuracy in the UK. In addition to this, our analysis shows there is a positive relationship between the size of internal capital markets and dispersion in analysts earnings forecasts. In general, our study shows analysts are optimistic about firms future performance; however, the level of optimism significantly declines during the financial crisis. Lastly, we report a positive relationship between efficiency of internal capital markets and optimism in earnings forecasts.

Master of Science / Department of Family Studies and Human Services / Farrell J. Webb / Farrell J. Webb / The purpose of this thesis was to examine how financial stressors influence family well-being. The specific thrust of this thesis was to examine if and how family well-being is influenced by financial stressors caused by the current economic crisis through an adaptation of Hills ABC-X Mosel (1949) known as the ABCE-WB Model. The ABC-X Model was adapted first by White (2007) who substituted the X—crisis element with the WB- well-being item. I added a new element to this model known as E—family expenditures. The data used in this thesis were gleaned from research conducted by Knowledge Networks on behalf of the National Center for Family and Marriage Research. The study was titled: Familial Responses to Financial Instability, How the Family Responds to Economic Pressure: A Comparative Study, 2009. In consisted of nationally representative a (multivariate) address the central hypotheses of this weighted a sample of 1,169 respondents. Analyses included simple correlations (bivariate) and hierarchical analyses investigation that explored what was the relation shop between the resources, perceptions, and expenditures a family had available to them in the current economic crisis and their well-being. The results indicate that approximately 22.4% of the variance in well-being could be explained by the elements in the ABCE-WB Model. In addition, there were several important relationships that were revealed between the predictors and the outcome measures individually. Overall, the efficacy and utility of the ABCE-WB Model was upheld by the results. Based on these findings future use of the ABCE-WB Model holds promise.

The purpose of this thesis is to conduct a comparative study in order to estimate the impact of the financial crisis to the GNI of Greece and Iceland. By applying synthetic control matching (a relatively new methodology) the study intends to compare the two countries, thus deducting conclusions about good or bad measures adopted. The results indicate that in both cases the adopted measures were not the optimal ones, since the synthetic counterfactual appear to perform better than the actual Greece and Iceland. Moreover, it is shown that Iceland reacted better to the shock it was exposed. However, different characteristics of the two countries impede the application of Icelandic actions in the Greek case.

The thesis deals with the economic crisis and financial crisis of 2007 -- 2010. There is described the development of the economic situation during the economic crisis and the impact on individual sectors. The main attention is paid to the IT industry and specifically the market with business information systems. As a specific example demonstrating the impact of current crisis is selected company SAP, which operates in the field of business information systems nearly 40 years and is a world leader in business information systems. Various situations were analyzed during several economic recessions and compared with the current economic situation. Aim is to analyze the current situation, the impact on specific sectors, especially in the IT industry and producers of business information systems. You can find here the analysis of effect on SAP and what is its response to the crisis. There are most common anti-crisis measures taken and their impact on business and also recommendation that companies should watch out in times of economic crisis.

This dissertation analyzes key features of credit derivatives market, basic risks of the products and trends the market has experienced for several years since its inception, discusses regulatory issues of the market with regard to the Basel II treatment and key reasons for investors using credit derivatives. Dissertation also examines whether and how credit derivatives affected current financial turmoil, analyzes credit derivatives losses of selected institutions on the financial markets and compares them with total losses of these institutions. The main result of the work is that there was no substantial effect of the credit derivatives market on the current financial crisis. Dissertation also examines whether there is any connection between U.S. banks credit derivatives trades and their capital adequacy ratio. According to the analysis, there is no evidence for credit derivatives to essentially affect capital adequacy ratio of U.S. banks. A potential explanation for the higher values of U.S. banks' capital adequacy ratio may be that there are sophisticated risk management strategies banks have been implicating for many years.

The Thesis summarizes development and management of multinational corporation which must deal with the consequences of the financial crisis. It includes theoretical background within international management and strategic analyses which are applied in functional part to General Motors Corporation. The result of the strategic analyses is to map the current situation of the company, its prospective trend and recommendations.

Magister Commercii - MCom / Since the discovery of herding behaviour in financial markets in the 1990s, it has become an area of interest for many investors, practitioners and scholars. Herding behaviour occurs when investors and market participants trade in the same direction during the same time period, as a result of the influence of other investors. Studies on herding behaviour have been undertaken in both the developed and developing economies and majority of these studies have confirmed the existence of herding behaviour in the stock markets. Despite its tremendous growth, the South African financial markets are not immune to such market anomaly. Herding behaviour on the JSE was first investigated in 2002 focusing in the unit trust industry on the South African stock market. Motivated by this, this study assessed the presence of herding behaviour using the Johannesburg Securities Exchange tradable sector indices. Four indices were employed, namely Financials, Industrials and Resources and were benchmarked against the JSE All Share Index for the period from January 2007 to December 2017. The industrials index ((FINI15) constitutes of 25 largest industrial stocks by market capitalization, the financials index (FINI15) comprises of 15 largest financial stocks by market capitalization, the resources index (RESI10) which represents 10 largest resources stocks by market capitalization and lastly the FTSE/JSE All Share Index defined as a market capitalization-weighted index which is made up of 150 JSE listed companies and is the largest index in terms of size and overall value JSE. The FTSE/JSE All Share Index was used as a benchmark for investors to check how volatile an investment is. The South African economy experienced the effects of the 2008 global financial crisis from 01 July 2007 to 31 August 2009. This study split the examination period into three categories namely before the global financial crises which was the period starting from 1 January 2007 to 30 June 2007, then the period during the global financial crisis which was from 1 July 2007 to 31 August 2009 and lastly the period after the global financial crises which was from 1 September 2009 to 31 December 2017. Apart from the diversity of the indices, the length of the examination period also had a significant influence towards the magnitude of herding behaviour on the JSE.

L’axe principal de la thèse est centré sur des approches non-linéaires modernes d’analyse des données économiques et financières, avec une attention particulière sur les cycles économiques et les crises financières. Un consensus dans la littérature statistique et financière s’est établie autour du fait que les variables économiques ont un comportement non-linéaire au cours des différentes phases du cycle économique. En tant que tel, les approches/modèles non-linéaires sont requis pour saisir les caractéristiques du mécanisme de génération des données intrinsèquement asymétriques, que les modèles linéaires sont incapables de reproduire.À cet égard, la thèse propose une nouvelle approche interdisciplinaire et ouverte à l’analyse des systèmes économiques et financiers. La thèse présente des approches robustes aux valeurs extrêmes et à la non-stationnarité, applicables à la fois pour des petits et de grands échantillons, aussi bien pour des séries temporelles économiques que financières. La thèse fournit des procédures dites étape par étape dans l’analyse des indicateurs économiques et financiers en intégrant des concepts basés sur la méthode de substitution de données, des ondelettes, espace incorporation de phase, la m´méthode retard vecteur variance (DVV) et des récurrences parcelles. La thèse met aussi en avant des méthodes transparentes d’identification, de datation des points de retournement et de l´évaluation des impacts des crises économiques et financières. En particulier, la thèse fournit également une procédure pour anticiper les crises futures et ses conséquences.L’étude montre que l’intégration de ces techniques dans l’apprentissage de la structure et des interactions au sein et entre les variables économiques et financières sera très utile dans l’élaboration de politiques de crises, car elle facilite le choix des méthodes de traitement appropriées, suggérées par les données.En outre, une nouvelle procédure pour tester la linéarité et la racine unitaire dans un cadre non-linéaire est proposé par l’introduction d’un nouveau modèle – le modèle MT-STAR – qui a des propriétés similaires au modèle ESTAR mais réduit les effets des problèmes d’identification et peut aussi représenter l’asymétrie dans le mécanisme d’ajustement vers l’équilibre. Les distributions asymptotiques du test de racine unitaire proposées sont non-standards et sont calculées. La puissance du test est évaluée par simulation et quelques illustrations empiriques sur les taux de change réel montrent son efficacité. Enfin, la thèse développe des modèles multi-variés Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive avec des variables exogènes (MSETARX) et présente une méthode d’estimation paramétrique. La modélisation des modèles MSETARX et des problèmes engendrés par son estimation sont brièvement examinés. / This thesis centers on introducing modern non-linear approaches for data analysis in economics and finance with special attention on business cycles and financial crisis. It is now well stated in the statistical and economic literature that major economic variables display non-linear behaviour over the different phases of the business cycle. As such, nonlinear approaches/models are required to capture the features of the data generating mechanism of inherently asymmetric realizations, since linear models are incapable of generating such behavior.In this respect, the thesis provides an interdisciplinary and open-minded approach to analyzing economic and financial systems in a novel way. The thesis presents approaches that are robust to extreme values, non-stationarity, applicable to both short and long data length, transparent and adaptive to any financial/economic time series. The thesis provides step-by-step procedures in analyzing economic/financial indicators by incorporating concepts based on surrogate data method, wavelets, phase space embedding, ’delay vector variance’ (DVV) method and recurrence plots. The thesis also centers on transparent ways of identifying, dating turning points, evaluating impact of economic and financial crisis. In particular, the thesis also provides a procedure on how to anticipate future crisis and the possible impact of such crisis. The thesis shows that the incorporation of these techniques in learning the structure and interactions within and between economic and financial variables will be very useful in policy-making, since it facilitates the selection of appropriate processing methods, suggested by the data itself.In addition, a novel procedure to test for linearity and unit root in a nonlinear framework is proposed by introducing a new model – the MT-STAR model – which has similar properties of the ESTAR model but reduces the effects of the identification problem and can also account for asymmetry in the adjustment mechanism towards equilibrium. The asymptotic distributions of the proposed unit root test is non-standard and is derived.The power of the test is evaluated through a simulation study and some empirical illustrations on real exchange rates show its accuracy. Finally, the thesis defines a multivariate Self–Exciting Threshold Autoregressive with eXogenous input (MSETARX) models and present an estimation procedure for the parameters. The modeling procedure for the MSETARX models and problems of estimation are briefly considered.

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the stock price behaviour of firms listed on the Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE) around corporate events relating to final cash dividend change announcements over the period 2004 to 2009. Declared for the financial year-end, final cash dividend announcements either represent an increase, a reduction or no change relative to the previous year’s announcement. In this paper we analyse the stock price behaviour of firms that announced dividend reductions before and during the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 (GFC 2007). The pre-crisis analysis focuses on dividend reduction effects on share price during normal economic times and crisis analysis focuses on effects during economic downturn. We refer to the pre and during crises effects as firm-specific and systemic effects respectively. Studies about the general effect of dividend announcements on shareholder value are well documented; however our study is motivated by the fact that there has not been an abundance of forthcoming research in South Africa pertaining to how share prices have reacted to dividend reductions before and during the GFC 2007. We employ an event study methodology in the context of this emerging market to assess the share price behaviour to dividend reductions. Integral to an event study methodology in the corporate context, is the analysis of abnormal performance around the event date. Abnormal performance is measured by employing three widely used quantitative approaches namely, the market-adjusted, market model and the buy-and-hold abnormal return approaches. Based on daily closing share price information collected from iNet Bridge database, abnormal performance is calculated from 2004 to 2009 while controlling for the contemporaneous effect of earnings announcements (earnings data collected from Bloomberg database) occurring within 10 trading days of dividend announcement. The analysis shows that the market reaction is not statistically significant on the announcement day and that more negative returns occur during the pre-crisis period. Volatility of abnormal returns is higher during the pre-crisis period. The research does not support the Irrelevance Theory but seems to support the signalling hypothesis.