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Esta pesquisa tem como objetivo principal desenvolver um modelo capaz de captar como mudanças nas alíquotas dos tributos afetam as diferentes classes de renda e quais são seus impactos na arrecadação do governo. A justificativa para desenvolver o estudo é que as autoridades públicas, no Brasil, não dispõem de mecanismos que permitam fazer tal análise e, provavelmente, esse é um dos motivos pelos quais não foi dada a devida atenção à forma como os impostos indiretos recaem sobre a população. O modelo desenvolvido no presente estudo requer três informações fundamentais: a carga tributária por faixa de renda, a estimação da matriz de elasticidades Marshallianas e o padrão de consumo da população. As simulações são feitas com base nos microdados da POF de 2002-2003. Sendo assim, para alcançar os objetivos propostos pela tese, é feito um estudo detalhado da atual incidência do sistema tributário brasileiro, que vai da averiguação da carga tributária direta, indireta e total por faixa de renda até a estimação de um modelo de sacrifício eqüitativo. Buscou-se detalhar ao máximo as alíquotas dos impostos indiretos, tomando como base as normas tributárias da Federação, das Unidades da Federação e respectivas capitais. Cruzando essas informações com os microdados da POF de 2002-2003, foi possível verificar que o sistema tributário brasileiro é regressivo quando tomada como base a renda. Isso se deve em grande parte aos impostos indiretos, mais especificamente ao ICMS, ao PIS e à COFINS. Contudo, é importante ressaltar que a baixa participação dos impostos diretos não permite equilibrar a carga por faixa de renda. O IR tem uma taxa efetiva bem abaixo da alíquota que está prevista em lei e o IPTU chega a ser regressivo quando analisada a renda familiar total. O estudo também revelou que há diferenças regionais no comportamento dos impostos indiretos. No caso específico dos alimentos, que é um grupo de despesa relevante para as famílias de baixa renda, as maiores cargas foram verificadas nas regiões Norte e Nordeste. Na estimação da matriz de elasticidades Marshallianas a partir dos microdados da POF de 2002-2003 é usada a versão não-linear do sistema quase ideal de demanda (NL-AIDS) para 27 grupos de produtos. Como não é possível obter todos os preços necessários para os produtos nãoalimentícios na POF, foi necessário buscar informações de preços em outras fontes. Para estimar uma função de tributação pressupondo obediência ao princípio de sacrifício eqüitativo, é utilizada a forma proposta por Hoffmann, Silveira e Pintos-Payeras (2006). Os resultados sugerem que o coeficiente de aversão à desigualdade está aumentando no Brasil e isto pode ser interpretado como o desejo da sociedade por uma tributação mais justa. As simulações feitas mostram que o modelo desenvolvido no último capítulo apresenta um razoável desempenho para avaliar os efeitos das mudanças no sistema tributário. Certamente é um recurso adicional que pode ser usado pelas autoridades públicas antes de fazer alterações nas alíquotas tributárias. O modelo permitiu observar que quando é buscada maior progressividade do sistema tributário, é necessário combinar alterações nos impostos diretos e indiretos. / The main objective of this research is to develop a model that is able to evaluate how the effects of changes in tax rates are distributed among the different income classes as well as their impact in the government revenues. This study is relevant, because Brazilian public authorities do not have mechanisms for such analysis, and this is possibly one the reasons why the way indirect taxes affect the population has not been carefully considered so far. The model developed in this study requires three fundamental types of information: the tax burden per income class, the estimate of Marshalls elasticities matrix, and the populations pattern of consumption. Simulations are based on Household Budgeting Survey (POF-2002-2003) microdata. Thus, to reach the objectives proposed by this thesis, a detailed study of the current incidence of the Brazilian tax system was carried out, including the evaluation of direct, indirect and per-class tax burden and the estimation of a tax function assuming equitable sacrifice. Indirect tax rates were detailed as much as possible, considering the tax regulations of the country, states and their respective capital cities. Combining this information with the 2002-2003 POF database, it could be verified that the Brazilian tax system is regressive when based on income. This is mainly due to indirect taxes, and more specifically to Value added tax (ICMS), Social Security (PIS), and Social Security Financing Tax (COFINS). However, we must point out that the low participation of indirect taxes does not allow a balance of the tax burden per income class. Income tax has an effective rate well below the rate established by the law, and municipal tax on properties (IPTU) is regressive, when the total family income is analyzed. The study also showed that there are regional differences as to indirect taxes. Particularly in the case of food, which is a relevant expense group for low income families, higher tax burdens were found for the North and Northeast regions. Marshalls elasticities matrix was estimated using a non-linear version of the almost ideal demand system (NL-AIDS), considering 27 product groups out of the 2002-2003 POF database. As not all the necessary prices for non-food products could be obtained from the POF database, other information sources were used. Tax functions assuming equitable sacrifice were estimated using the procedure proposed by Hoffmann, Silveira and Pintos-Payeras (2006). The results suggest that the coefficient of aversion to inequality is increasing in Brazil and this can be interpreted as the populations desire for a fairer tax system. The simulations show that the model developed in the last chapter has a reasonable performance in the evaluation of the effect of changes in the tax system. It is certainly an additional instrument which can be used by public authorities before establishing changes in the tax rates. The model allowed us to observe that when a higher progressivity of the tax system is attempted, it is necessary to combine changes in direct and indirect taxes.

Esta pesquisa tem como objetivo principal desenvolver um modelo capaz de captar como mudanças nas alíquotas dos tributos afetam as diferentes classes de renda e quais são seus impactos na arrecadação do governo. A justificativa para desenvolver o estudo é que as autoridades públicas, no Brasil, não dispõem de mecanismos que permitam fazer tal análise e, provavelmente, esse é um dos motivos pelos quais não foi dada a devida atenção à forma como os impostos indiretos recaem sobre a população. O modelo desenvolvido no presente estudo requer três informações fundamentais: a carga tributária por faixa de renda, a estimação da matriz de elasticidades Marshallianas e o padrão de consumo da população. As simulações são feitas com base nos microdados da POF de 2002-2003. Sendo assim, para alcançar os objetivos propostos pela tese, é feito um estudo detalhado da atual incidência do sistema tributário brasileiro, que vai da averiguação da carga tributária direta, indireta e total por faixa de renda até a estimação de um modelo de sacrifício eqüitativo. Buscou-se detalhar ao máximo as alíquotas dos impostos indiretos, tomando como base as normas tributárias da Federação, das Unidades da Federação e respectivas capitais. Cruzando essas informações com os microdados da POF de 2002-2003, foi possível verificar que o sistema tributário brasileiro é regressivo quando tomada como base a renda. Isso se deve em grande parte aos impostos indiretos, mais especificamente ao ICMS, ao PIS e à COFINS. Contudo, é importante ressaltar que a baixa participação dos impostos diretos não permite equilibrar a carga por faixa de renda. O IR tem uma taxa efetiva bem abaixo da alíquota que está prevista em lei e o IPTU chega a ser regressivo quando analisada a renda familiar total. O estudo também revelou que há diferenças regionais no comportamento dos impostos indiretos. No caso específico dos alimentos, que é um grupo de despesa relevante para as famílias de baixa renda, as maiores cargas foram verificadas nas regiões Norte e Nordeste. Na estimação da matriz de elasticidades Marshallianas a partir dos microdados da POF de 2002-2003 é usada a versão não-linear do sistema quase ideal de demanda (NL-AIDS) para 27 grupos de produtos. Como não é possível obter todos os preços necessários para os produtos nãoalimentícios na POF, foi necessário buscar informações de preços em outras fontes. Para estimar uma função de tributação pressupondo obediência ao princípio de sacrifício eqüitativo, é utilizada a forma proposta por Hoffmann, Silveira e Pintos-Payeras (2006). Os resultados sugerem que o coeficiente de aversão à desigualdade está aumentando no Brasil e isto pode ser interpretado como o desejo da sociedade por uma tributação mais justa. As simulações feitas mostram que o modelo desenvolvido no último capítulo apresenta um razoável desempenho para avaliar os efeitos das mudanças no sistema tributário. Certamente é um recurso adicional que pode ser usado pelas autoridades públicas antes de fazer alterações nas alíquotas tributárias. O modelo permitiu observar que quando é buscada maior progressividade do sistema tributário, é necessário combinar alterações nos impostos diretos e indiretos. / The main objective of this research is to develop a model that is able to evaluate how the effects of changes in tax rates are distributed among the different income classes as well as their impact in the government revenues. This study is relevant, because Brazilian public authorities do not have mechanisms for such analysis, and this is possibly one the reasons why the way indirect taxes affect the population has not been carefully considered so far. The model developed in this study requires three fundamental types of information: the tax burden per income class, the estimate of Marshalls elasticities matrix, and the populations pattern of consumption. Simulations are based on Household Budgeting Survey (POF-2002-2003) microdata. Thus, to reach the objectives proposed by this thesis, a detailed study of the current incidence of the Brazilian tax system was carried out, including the evaluation of direct, indirect and per-class tax burden and the estimation of a tax function assuming equitable sacrifice. Indirect tax rates were detailed as much as possible, considering the tax regulations of the country, states and their respective capital cities. Combining this information with the 2002-2003 POF database, it could be verified that the Brazilian tax system is regressive when based on income. This is mainly due to indirect taxes, and more specifically to Value added tax (ICMS), Social Security (PIS), and Social Security Financing Tax (COFINS). However, we must point out that the low participation of indirect taxes does not allow a balance of the tax burden per income class. Income tax has an effective rate well below the rate established by the law, and municipal tax on properties (IPTU) is regressive, when the total family income is analyzed. The study also showed that there are regional differences as to indirect taxes. Particularly in the case of food, which is a relevant expense group for low income families, higher tax burdens were found for the North and Northeast regions. Marshalls elasticities matrix was estimated using a non-linear version of the almost ideal demand system (NL-AIDS), considering 27 product groups out of the 2002-2003 POF database. As not all the necessary prices for non-food products could be obtained from the POF database, other information sources were used. Tax functions assuming equitable sacrifice were estimated using the procedure proposed by Hoffmann, Silveira and Pintos-Payeras (2006). The results suggest that the coefficient of aversion to inequality is increasing in Brazil and this can be interpreted as the populations desire for a fairer tax system. The simulations show that the model developed in the last chapter has a reasonable performance in the evaluation of the effect of changes in the tax system. It is certainly an additional instrument which can be used by public authorities before establishing changes in the tax rates. The model allowed us to observe that when a higher progressivity of the tax system is attempted, it is necessary to combine changes in direct and indirect taxes.

Please read the abstract in the dissertation. Copyright / Dissertation (MCom)--University of Pretoria, 2008. / Economics / unrestricted

Extractive industries (including oil, gas and mining) generally afford an opportunity for the host government to generate the revenue to fund sustainable growth and development. It is therefore not surprising for conventional economic theory to suggest this is a readily available revenue source for resource blessed countries. However, contrary to this reasonable expectation, several of these economies were found to be suffering a financial handicap. Nigeria, despite being the largest crude oil producer in Africa and the tenth largest in the world, has so far found realising the full financial benefits of this nature’s gift unattainable. Using both qualitative and quantitative data as well as grounded theory in the analysis of the qualitative data, this research work has been carried out to develop a model of Nigerian oil industry using System Dynamics modelling methodology in order to understand these challenges. Specifically, the research develops an System Dynamics model to capture and quantify the various potential revenue streams to the Nigerian government from the oil (petroleum) industry with the objective of providing an explanatory model of the causal factors and then using the model to construct policy experiments in order to evaluate policies that may optimise these revenues. Findings show that, the development of the model for the Nigerian oil industry was successfully undertaken. The model was used to evaluate two government policy interventions that were aimed at improving government revenue from the industry. Moreover, a range of alternative scenarios which suggested increase of transparency policy, reduction of rate of gas flare and reduction of time taken for repairs of vandalised facilities were used in the model. The relevant system actors in the Nigerian oil industry were impressed with the modelling idea, particularly in its ability to represents all the economic challenges facing the industry, which offered a better understanding of the system they are dealing with. Overall, the model was able to depict some potential policy points thus serving as a decision-making tool.

In the empirical literature on the revenue consequences of trade liberalization, most studies have focused on cross-country analysis. Because these studies are static in nature, they have not addressed the short-run and long-run dynamic public revenue and public investment consequences of economic reforms in developing countries. This dissertation contributes to the literature employing a dynamic time series analysis of the three East African countries-Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda. The dissertation uses a co-integration and error-correction framework to distinguish between short-run and long-run relationships. The results indicate that trade reforms in Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda had varying impacts on government revenue, tax performance and public investment spending in these three countries. It is demonstrated that trade reforms had adverse impact on government revenue in Uganda, but not in Tanzania and Kenya. The results also show that Tanzania has had the weakest overall tax revenue and public investment. Poor tax performance and erratic revenue generation have been problems in all three countries, contributing to adverse impacts on public investment spending.

This study aims to show the relation of the methods of county financing in Texas to the present form of county government. It argues that the present form of county government in Texas is antiquated and inadequate to meet the requirements of efficient administration of county financing.

Additional tax on gambling winnings was announced by the Minister of Finance, Mr. Pravin Gordhan in the 2010 National Budget Speech. This additional tax was proposed to discourage excessive gambling in South Africa. In 2011, it was proposed that all winnings above R25 000 will be subject to a final 15 per cent withholding tax. Gambling plays a significant role in the South African economy and contributes to job creation, infrastructure investment and overall economic growth. The Government faced negative comments from the gambling industry where the administrative challenges of implementing a withholding tax were emphasised. Challenges such as the difficulty in implementing, controlling and administering the proposed tax were mentioned. The objective of the proposal was questioned because excessive gambling declined in South Africa during the last few years. This led to the Government changing their proposed method in 2012 from a withholding tax at 15 per cent to a national gambling tax, based on gross gambling revenue, on a uniform provincial gambling tax base, which constitutes an additional 1% national levy. This raised two main problem statements. The first is which role of government, regulator versus stakeholder, is taking precedence through the implementation of the proposals to levy additional taxes on gambling in South Africa? And the second, is this role (identified above) the correct role that government should play that best supports government‟s objective of curbing excessive gambling in South Africa and does it justify the need for an additional tax to be levied on South African gambling? The two proposed methods were scrutinised to identify the ultimate role of the government. The fact that only the winnings will be subject to a withholding tax system did not contribute to a regulator role to decrease excessive gambling and thereby minimising negative externalities. Not all gamblers will be directly affected by this type of tax. The provincial tax base taxes all gambling activities, as all gamblers participating in gambling will be subject to the additional levy. The problem here is that the gambler will not be directly taxed and will then not be directly influenced to have any effect on their gambling behaviour. The government also recognised that they want to decrease the negative externalities that are associated with excessive gambling. It would seem that the main objective should rather be to address the negative externalities rather than the excessive gambling. It is debatable whether an additional tax levied in any form other than a sin tax would achieve this goal and give the role of regulator precedence. The role as stakeholder took precedence when the government decided to move to a provincial tax base. Research indicated that the main motivational factor behind the election was purely driven on how government would be successful in implementing an additional tax in the most administratively efficient and cost effective manner, while still benefiting from it through the collection of additional state revenue. / MCom (South African and International Taxation), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2014

Additional tax on gambling winnings was announced by the Minister of Finance, Mr. Pravin Gordhan in the 2010 National Budget Speech. This additional tax was proposed to discourage excessive gambling in South Africa. In 2011, it was proposed that all winnings above R25 000 will be subject to a final 15 per cent withholding tax. Gambling plays a significant role in the South African economy and contributes to job creation, infrastructure investment and overall economic growth. The Government faced negative comments from the gambling industry where the administrative challenges of implementing a withholding tax were emphasised. Challenges such as the difficulty in implementing, controlling and administering the proposed tax were mentioned. The objective of the proposal was questioned because excessive gambling declined in South Africa during the last few years. This led to the Government changing their proposed method in 2012 from a withholding tax at 15 per cent to a national gambling tax, based on gross gambling revenue, on a uniform provincial gambling tax base, which constitutes an additional 1% national levy. This raised two main problem statements. The first is which role of government, regulator versus stakeholder, is taking precedence through the implementation of the proposals to levy additional taxes on gambling in South Africa? And the second, is this role (identified above) the correct role that government should play that best supports government‟s objective of curbing excessive gambling in South Africa and does it justify the need for an additional tax to be levied on South African gambling? The two proposed methods were scrutinised to identify the ultimate role of the government. The fact that only the winnings will be subject to a withholding tax system did not contribute to a regulator role to decrease excessive gambling and thereby minimising negative externalities. Not all gamblers will be directly affected by this type of tax. The provincial tax base taxes all gambling activities, as all gamblers participating in gambling will be subject to the additional levy. The problem here is that the gambler will not be directly taxed and will then not be directly influenced to have any effect on their gambling behaviour. The government also recognised that they want to decrease the negative externalities that are associated with excessive gambling. It would seem that the main objective should rather be to address the negative externalities rather than the excessive gambling. It is debatable whether an additional tax levied in any form other than a sin tax would achieve this goal and give the role of regulator precedence. The role as stakeholder took precedence when the government decided to move to a provincial tax base. Research indicated that the main motivational factor behind the election was purely driven on how government would be successful in implementing an additional tax in the most administratively efficient and cost effective manner, while still benefiting from it through the collection of additional state revenue. / MCom (South African and International Taxation), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2014

Fiscal illusion is understood to be a concept that occurs where taxpayers do not always realize how much they contribute towards government revenue in the form of taxation, or how much they receive in the form of public goods and services (Dell’ Ánno&Mourao, 2011:2). The purpose of this study was to discover the originating causes of fiscal illusion amongst individual taxpayers in South Africa. To achieve this objective, available literature was reviewed, which revealed that complexity of the tax systems is argued to be one of the causes of fiscal illusion. A study conducted in South Africa suggested that taxpayer’s perception toward tax affects their attitude (Oberholzer, 2007:45). The hypothesis derived from the literature was then applied to a real life context by conducting interviews with a sample of individual taxpayers. Based on the analysis of data obtained, the study revealed that fiscal illusion of individual taxpayers in South Africa falls within four conceptual elements namely, hidden taxes, number of taxes, double taxation and, to a limited extent, tax shifting. / Dissertation (MCom)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Taxation / unrestricted