Climatic changes have induced striking altitudinal and latitudinal vegetation shifts throughout history. These shifts will almost certainly recur in the future; threatening other flora and fauna, and influencing climate feedback loops. Changes in the spatial distribution of vegetation are most conspicuous at physiognomically distinct ecotones, particularly between the subalpine forest and alpine tundra. Traditionally, ecological research has linked abiotic variables with the position of this ecotone (e.g., cold temperatures inhibit tree survival at high elevations). Thus, the prevailing assumption states that this ecotone is in equilibrium or quasi-equilibrium with the surrounding physical environment and that any dynamic shifts express direct linkages with the physical environment. This dissertation employs a landscape ecology approach to examine the abiotic and biotic ecological mechanisms most important in controlling tree establishment at this ecotone. The study site is on the western slopes of Mount Rainier, which was severely burned by a slash fire in 1930. Therefore, a crucial underlying assumption is that the ecological mechanisms controlling tree establishment are similar at disturbed and undisturbed sites. I exploited the use of 1970 CORONA satellite imagery and 2003 aerial photography to map 33 years of changes in arboreal vegetation. I created detailed maps of abiotic variables from a LIDAR-based DEM and biotic variables from classified remotely sensed data. I linked tree establishment patterns with abiotic and biotic variables in a GIS, and analyzed the correlations with standard logistic regression and logistic regression in the hierarchical partitioning framework at multiple spatial resolutions. A biotic factor (proximity to previously existing trees) was found to exert a strong influence on tree establishment patterns; equaling and in most cases exceeding the significance of the abiotic factors. The abiotic setting was more important at restricted spatial extents near the extreme upper limits of the ecotone and when analyzing coarse resolution data, but even in these cases proximity to existing trees remained significant. The strong overall influence of proximity to existing trees on patterns of tree establishment is unequivocal. If the underlying assumption of this dissertation is true, it challenges the long-held ecological assumption that vegetation in mountainous terrain is in equilibrium with and most strongly influenced by the surrounding physical environment.

[pt] Esta dissertação investiga a utilização de sistemas Neuro- Fuzzy Hierárquicos BSP (Binary Space Partitioning) para aplicações em classificação de padrões, previsão, sistemas de controle e extração de regras fuzzy. O objetivo é criar um modelo Neuro-Fuzzy Hierárquico BSP do tipo Mamdani a partir do modelo Neuro-Fuzzy Hierárquico BSP Class (NFHB-Class) que é capaz de criar a sua própria estrutura automaticamente e extrair conhecimento de uma base de dados através de regras fuzzy, lingüisticamente interpretáveis, que explicam a estrutura dos dados. Esta dissertação consiste de quatros etapas principais: estudo dos principais sistemas hierárquicos; análise do sistema Neuro-Fuzzy Hierárquico BSP Class, definição e implementação do modelo NFHB-Mamdani e estudo de casos. No estudo dos principais sistemas hierárquicos é efetuado um levantamento bibliográfico na área. São investigados, também, os principais modelos neuro-fuzzy utilizados em sistemas de controle - Falcon e o Nefcon. Na análise do sistema NFHB- Class, é verificado o aprendizado da estrutura, o particionamento recursivo, a possibilidade de se ter um maior número de entrada - em comparação com outros sistemas neuro-fuzzy - e regras fuzzy recursivas. O sistema NFHB- Class é um modelo desenvolvido especificamente para classificação de padrões, como possui várias saídas, não é possível utilizá-lo em aplicações em controle e em previsão. Para suprir esta deficiência, é criado um novo modelo que contém uma única saída. Na terceira etapa é definido um novo modelo Neuro-Fuzzy Hierárquico BSP com conseqüentes fuzzy (NFHB-Mamdani), cuja implementação utiliza a arquitetura do NFHBClass para a fase do aprendizado, teste e validação, porém, com os conseqüentes diferentes, modificando a estratégia de definição dos conseqüentes das regras. Além de sua utilização em classificação de padrões, previsão e controle, o sistema NFHB-Mamdani é capaz de extrair conhecimento de uma base de dados em forma de regras do tipo SE ENTÃO. No estudo de casos são utilizadas duas bases de dados típicas para aplicações em classificação: Wine e o Iris. Para previsão são utilizadas séries de cargas elétricas de seis companhias brasileiras diferentes: Copel, Cemig, Light, Cerj, Eletropaulo e Furnas. Finalmente, para testar o desempenho do sistema em controle faz-se uso de uma planta de terceira ordem como processo a controlar. Os resultados obtidos para classificação, na maioria dos casos, são superiores aos melhores resultados encontrados pelos outros modelos e algoritmos aos quais foram comparados. Para previsão de cargas elétricas, os resultados obtidos estão sempre entre os melhores resultados fornecidos por outros modelos aos quais formam comparados. Quanto à aplicação em controle, o modelo NFHB-Mamdani consegue controlar, de forma satisfatória, o processo utilizado para teste. / [en] This paper investigates the use of Binary Space Partitioning (BSP) Hierarchical Neuro-Fuzzy Systems for applications in pattern classification, forecast, control systems and obtaining of fuzzy rules. The goal is to create a BSP Hierarchical Neuro-Fuzzy Model of the Mamdani type from the BSP Hierarchical Neuro-Fuzzy Class (NFHB-Class) which is able to create its own structure automatically and obtain knowledge from a data base through fuzzy rule, interpreted linguistically, that explain the data structure. This paper is made up of four main parts: study of the main Hierarchical Systems; analysis of the BSP Hierarchical Neuro-Fuzzy Class System, definition and implementation of the NFHB-Mamdani model, and case studies. A bibliographical survey is made in the study of the main Hierarchical Systems. The main Neuro-Fuzzy Models used in control systems - Falcon and Nefcon -are also investigated. In the NFHB-Class System, the learning of the structure is verified, as well as, the recursive partitioning, the possibility of having a greater number of inputs in comparison to other Neuro-Fuzzy systems and recursive fuzzy rules. The NFHB-Class System is a model developed specifically for pattern classification, since it has various outputs, it is not possible to use it in control application and forecast. To make up for this deficiency, a new unique output model is developed. In the third part, a new BSP Hierarchical Neuro-Fuzzy model is defined with fuzzy consequents (NFHB-Mamdani), whose implementation uses the NFHB-Class architecture for the learning, test, and validation phase, yet with the different consequents, modifying the definition strategy of the consequents of the rules. Aside from its use in pattern classification, forecast, and control, the NFHB-Mamdani system is capable of obtaining knowledge from a data base in the form of rules of the type IF THEN. Two typical data base for application in classification are used in the case studies: Wine and Iris. Electric charge series of six different Brazilian companies are used for forecasting: Copel, Cemig, Light, Cerj, Eletropaulo and Furnas. Finally, to test the performance of the system in control, a third order plant is used as a process to be controlled. The obtained results for classification, in most cases, are better than the best results found by other models and algorithms to which they were compared. For forecast of electric charges, the obtained results are always among the best supplied by other models to which they were compared. Concerning its application in control, the NFHB-Mamdani model is able to control, reasonably, the process used for test.