The study is based on the time series analysis of stock prices in South Africa. It uses the data covering the period 1980Q1 to 2010Q4 to test the effect of inflation on stock prices. The analysis is done using Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL). First, we investigate time series properties of data. The unit root test results reveal stock prices (SP), interest rate (IR), economic growth (GOP) and real effective exchange rate (EXCR) are integrated of order zero -1(0), while the growth of money supply (MS) and inflation were found to contain unit root. The Augumented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and the Philips-Perron (PP) tests were used to test for unit root. Causality test suggests that causation runs from inflation to stock prices. Cointegration test shows that there is cointegration and as such, Error Correction Model (EC) is done to establish short-run and long-run dynamics. The study shows that inflation does contribute negatively to stock prices. / Thesis (MBA) North-West University, Mafikeng Campus, 2011

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The main objective of the thesis is to analyse the suitability of inflation targeting, a monetary policy regime which focuses on the achievement of the price stability, for the emerging market economies. The performance of inflation targeting countries is compared to the performance of non-inflation targeting countries which use other monetary policies such as the monetary aggregate target or exchange rate anchor. Regressions, using the difference-in-differences estimation approach, are run to assess the contribution of the inflation targeting framework to the development of economic variables such as the CPI, GDP, national interest rate etc. Economic outcomes of the financial crisis period (2007- 2010) are crucial part of the thesis. The convenience of the inflation targeting framework for the emerging market economies is derived. This holds also for the severe situations such as the crisis since it lowers the volatility of the main variables of the interest. Keywords: inflation targeting, monetary economics, monetary policy, emerging market economies, difference in differences estimation, financial crisis

In this thesis, we study the causes of inflation in Mongolia. We estimate a small open economy VAR model for Mongolia. The model comprises of two blocks - China and Mongolia and we impose a block exogeneity restriction in regards with our estimation purpose. We assess domestic and external shock affect on price level of Mongolia using impulse response function and reveal the main contributors to the price variability utilizing the forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD). Therefore, we trace out that the external shocks affect the price significantly in comparison with the domestic shock. In addition, we can say that the price level is very susceptible under the supply side shock.

The present paper has attempted to provide an empirically argumented basis on the existing conflict about effectiveness of IT regime on lowering inflation and inflation volatility. In the first part we perform panel analysis on a group of 43 emerging and developing economies for a more recent period ranging from 1997 to 2011, distinguishing between normal and crisis times as well as between geographical regions. Differently from common studies we applied dynamic panel model specification that controls for reverse causality of regime adoption. Despite broad arguments addresing IT ineffectiveness, our results support the regime and imply that shifting to IT will lower both inflation and inflation volatility in normal times. Model specification during the external shocks was inconclusive on the selected sample with relatively recent IT history. Regarding the geographical IT performance, we outlined that regime effectiveness was uniform along analyzed regions. In the second part we perform a preliminary analysis of a developing economy IT experience and conclude that, even though there are some problems of technical nature and main policy rate is still a weak instrument of transmission channel, the Republic of Moldova chose right time for regime adoption and has made considerable progress towards the...

M.Com. (Economics) / This study looked into the possible presence of structural inflation in South Africa. The South African rate of inflation has, by the time this study was undertaken, showed resistance to reduce in the face of several years of demand management policies. It was this resistance that led to the idea that the South African inflation rate might be the result of several structural factors in the economy. The study was done in three separate stages. In the first, a study of the conventional theories of inflation, the demand-pull and cost push theories, was done. The main objective was to establish whether inflation could be controlled by the medicine these theories prescribed. In section two, the different schools of thought as regards the structural approach to inflation were analyzed. The structuralist school, developed during the late 1950s, described inflation as the result of productivity discrepancies mainly between the agricultural and industrial sectors. The structural school, which developed during the early 1970s has two variations. The first, the Scandinavian variant, ascribes inflation to the existing productivity gap between the international competing sectors and the domestic sectors, whilst no corresponding gap in salaries between the relevant sectors exists. The second variant designates inflation to the gap existing between the labour productivity in the public and private sectors. Here again, no such salary gap exists between the sectors. The last structural inflation school of thought discussed was the one prevailing in the USA. This school saw inflation as the result of the unproductive use of capital and labour when measured against the incomes generated by the same factors of production. In section three of the study, the abovementioned theories of structural inflation were empirically applied in the South African context. In all cases very definite pointers, indicating the applicability ·of these theories in the South African situation were found. In all cases two main sector groups were constructed; each consisted as the sum of the weighted productivity of wages of the sectors belonging to that sector group i.e. internationally or domestically competitive and public or private competing groups. The constructed series for labour productivity and wages and salaries for the different sector groups were then compared.