The dynamic response of the demand is defined as the time-domain real and reactive power response to a voltage disturbance, and it represents the dynamic load characteristics. This thesis develops a methodology for probabilistic estimation and prediction of dynamic responses of the demand at bulk supply points. The main outcome of the research is being able to predict the contribution of different categories of loads to the total demand mix and their controllability without conducting detailed customer surveys or collecting smart meter data, and to predict the dynamic response of the demand without performing field tests. The prediction of the contributions of different load categories and their controllability and load characteristics in the near future (e.g., day ahead) plays an important role in system analysis and planning, especially in the short-term dispatch and control. However, the research related to this topic is missing in the publically available literature, and an approach needs to be developed to enable the prediction of the participation of different loads in total load mix, their controllability and the dynamic response of the demand. This research contributes to a number of areas, such as load forecasting, load disaggregation and load modelling. First, two load forecasting methodologies which have not been compared before are compared; and based on the results of comparison and considering the actual requirements in this research, a methodology is selected and used to predict both the real and reactive power. Second, a unique methodology for load disaggregation is developed. This methodology enables the estimation of the contributions of different load categories to the total demand mix and their controllability based on RMS measured voltage and real and reactive power. The confidence level of the estimation is also assessed. The methodology for disaggregation is integrated with the load forecasting tool to enable prediction of load compositions and dynamic responses of the demand. The prediction is validated with data collected from real UK power network. Finally, based on the prediction, an example of load shifting is used to demonstrate that different dynamic responses can be obtained based on the availability and redistribution of controllable devices and that load shifting decisions, i.e., demand side management actions, should be made based not only on the amount of demand to be shifted, but also on predicted responses before and after load shifting.

[pt] Desagregação de cargas é a tarefa de estimar o consumo individual de aparelhos elétricos a partir de medições de consumo de energia coletadas em um único ponto, em geral no quadro de distribuição do circuito. Este trabalho explora o uso de técnicas de aprendizado de máquina para esta tarefa, em uma base de dados coletada em uma fábrica de ração de aves no Brasil. É proposto um modelo combinando arquiteturas de autoencoders variacionais com as de fluxos normalizantes inversíveis. Os resultados obtidos são, de maneira geral, superiores aos melhores resultados reportados para esta base de dados até então, os superando em até 86 por cento no Erro do Sinal Agregado e em até 81 por cento no Erro de Desagregação Normalizado dependendo do equipamento desagregado. / [en] Load Disaggregation is the task of estimating appliance-level consumption from a single aggregate consumption metering point. This work explores machine learning techniques applied to an industrial load disaggregation dataset from a poultry feed factory in Brazil. It proposes a model that combines variational autoencoders with invertible normalizing flows models. The results obtained are, in general, better than the current best reported results for this dataset, outperforming them by up to 86 percent in the Signal Aggregate Error and by up to 81 percent in the Normalized Disaggregation Error.