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Mathematical modelling and risk management in deregulated electricity marketsDavis, Stephen January 2005 (has links)
In this thesis we aim to explore how electricity generation companies cope with the transition to a competitive environment in a newly deregulated electricity industry. Analyses and discussions are generally performed from the perspective of a Generator/Producer, otherwise they are undertaken with respect to the market as a whole. The techniques used for tackling the complex issues are diverse and wide-ranging as ascertained from the existing literature on the subject. The global ideology focuses on combining two streams of thought: the production optimisation and equilibrium techniques of the old monopolistic, cost-saving industry and; the new dynamic profit-maximising and risk-mitigating competitive industry. Financial engineering in a new and poorly understood market for electrical power must now take place in conjunction with - yet also constrained by - the physical production and distribution of the commodity.
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The effect of the implementation of lean production principles on the financial performance of a rail refurbishing plant of a large South African companyMeiring, AC January 2001 (has links)
Bibliography: leaves 170-174. / The study emanated from the needs for (i) effective management systems in the currently changing South Africa, (ii) empirical, "real world" research in the operations management field as well as (iii) the requirement by local management to verify the effects of an implemented intervention. In terms of this background, the study investigates the effects of the implementation of lean Production principles in a South African Government-owned Rail Refurbishing Plant with a Job production system on financial performance as measured by Return On Investment (ROI). The research question formulated for the study investigates the possible differences in financial performance as measured by ROJ between the Transwerk (Bloemfontein) Rail Refurbishing plant, which implemented lean Production Principles, and three similar Transwerk Rail Refurbishing plants which had no lean implementation initiatives. The literature review discusses the constructs Lean Production and Return On Investment (ROI). Emphasis is placed on the elements and transferability of lean Production, as well as the proven and potential effects of lean Production principles on ROI. Despite cited criticism of lean Production, the overall conclusion was reached (on the basis of case studies, research and postulations) that the implementation of Lean Production principles in a South African, Government owned, Rail Refurbishing plant with a job production system can improve ROI The research design (a case study) is reviewed next. Data sources are identified to be financial statements and questionnaires, while data collection methods are listed as the documentary approach and the survey approach. Sampling is non-random, and the generalisation of results is listed as a potential weakness of the study. The richness of in-depth descriptions of lean Production principles as applied in the case study plant accompanied by descriptions of results and obstacles encountered, however, are listed as strong points of the study. A MANOVA is chosen as an appropriate statistical test to evaluate the collected data with α = 5% to answer the research question of the study, while two χ² tests are performed to answer the secondary questions.
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Towards systems engineering approach applicable for small developing organisationJaroslawski, S R January 1998 (has links)
Includes bibliographical references. / The purpose of this thesis was to create the model which could be used to optimise the operational effectiveness of the general type of small developing business/system. The small developing organisation is the system which has the same type of components as a big organisation but the structure is much simpler. These components develop a system in the Technical, Economic and Environmental areas. Each of these components has its own purpose and together these purposes optimise the entire system. The identification of the purpose of the components of the small developing organisation should be analysed by: • investigating the component's performance; • investigating the component's behavioural pattern; and • investigating the component's support requirement. Further, the analysis of the general characteristics of the small developing organisation is such that: * analysis of the performance considers only the main point of the component's operation but not the entire operational function; * the behavioural pattern (i.e. failure and repair occurrence) is random; * the evaluation of the support requirements is subjective where the statistical tools may not be applicable; • the relationship between the elements of the aforementioned three activities is often unpredictable; • the components are usually analysed according to the hierarchy of importance to the development of the entire system.
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Development of computer software support for interpretive structural modellingLawrie, Peter Richard January 1995 (has links)
Includes bibliographical references. / Interpretive Structural Modelling is a computer-driven method for dealing with complexity, by allowing individuals or groups to interpret the inter-relationships between different aspects or elements of a problem. In doing this interpretation, the elements are structured, and from this structuring, a graphical model is produced, allowing the modeller(s) to better understand the problem. The main contribution of this thesis was to develop a computer package for Interpretive Structural Modelling (ISM), for use at the School of Engineering Management at the University of Cape Town. The package was developed for the IBM PC.
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Selection of multicriteria decision making methodologies in scenario based planningHeynes, Wynford Gustav January 1995 (has links)
Bibliography: leaves 131-136. / This dissertation investigates the application of Multicriteria Decision Making (MCDM) methodologies to the area of scenario based policy planning. We examine how the tools of MCDM can be used to develop a Decision Support System (DSS) that would allow management or policy planners to resolve conflicting goals and interests. Ideally, the resolution would be obtained by the various decision makers (DMs) in such a manner, that it satisfies all the relevant interest groupings at a maximum level of achievement for all concerned. This is not always possible and compromises need to be made that are fair and equitable to all the relevant interests. Stewart et al. (1993), in a report entitled: "Scenario Based Multicriteria Policy Planning for Water Management in South Africa", develop the principles of a procedure for implementing scenario based multicriteria policy planning. Their iterative procedure is illustrated in figure 2.1, chapter 2, of this paper. In this dissertation, we refine certain parts of this procedure and the two areas in particular that we have looked at are: (1) filtering a large set of policy scenarios (Background Set), that could be a continuum, to form a smaller set (Foreground Set), and (2) further reducing the smaller set to form a solution set of policy scenarios. (The generic terms "Background Set" and "Foreground Set" are defined in section 2.1 of chapter 2.) The main objectives of this study were therefore mainly twofold and are as follows: (1) to determine what MCDM methods are relevant to natural resources management (using water as a case study), and (2) to investigate how these methods need to be adopted for use in an interactive DSS. We address the first objective by surveying the literature in an attempt to identify potential MCDM approaches that are suitable to (i) reduce a large set of alternatives, analogous to the Background Set, to a more manageable smaller set, analogous to the Foreground Set of alternatives, and (ii) refine this Foreground Set in order to present the DMs with a solution set of alternatives from which University of Cape Town they will make their final selection. The literature has until now not dealt explicitly with these two issues and we had to adapt certain MCDM approaches, many of which have been developed in a linear programming context, to suit our purposes.
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Planning for the strategic management of South Africa's West Coast rock lobster fishery : an integrated approach to group decision supportMalyon, Brett Edwin January 1998 (has links)
Bibliography: leaves 175-184. / As Bryson (1995) points out, strategic planning is particularly useful for assisting organisations and communities to deal with change. This study was carried out at a time of great change in South Africa, when a new fisheries policy was being formulated and negotiated. The research describes an intervention with a group of .fisheries managers, scientists, fishing company directors and other key stakeholders, in planning for the future management of the West Coast Rock Lobster fishery. The primary objective of the study was to consider an integrated approach to group decision support, incorporating a particular soft-OR approach, SODA, together with multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). An integration of these two approaches has recently been suggested by researchers, for several reasons. Firstly, different phases of an intervention usually involve different tasks. Secondly, mixing methodologies will enable different aspects of the problem to be modelled and analysed. SODA was used at the outset, for divergent exploration and structuring of the problems surrounding the development of an operational management procedure (OMP) for the fishery, including more subjective and qualitative information. Several stakeholder groups opposed the idea of an OMP in the form in which it was proposed.
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Static and dynamic modelling of the South African real sectorBarr, Graham Douglas Irving January 1977 (has links)
This thesis provides a detailed investigation of the applicability of various economic models to the South African real sector. It has been written primarily for the statistician, and thus presentation of economic theory has been in a straightforward and, if possible, mathematical form. Chapter One provides an introduction to the application of econometric methods to economic model building. Chapters Two, Three and Four consider the theory and application of various economic models to the South African case. Chapter Five considers the relevance of money to the real sector.
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Robustness analysis based on weight restrictions in data envelopment analysisKantu, Dieudonne Kabongo January 2006 (has links)
Includes bibliographical references. / Evaluating the performance of organisations is essential to good planning and control. Part of this process is monitoring the performance of organisations against their goals. The comparative efficiency of organizations using common inputs and outputs makes it possible for organizations to improve their performance so that can operate as the most efficient organizations. Resources and outputs can be very diversified in nature and it is complex to assess organizations using such resources and outputs. Data Envelopment Analysis models are designed to facilitate this of assessment and aim to evaluate the relative efficiency of organisations. Chapter 2 is dedicated to the basic Data Envelopment Analysis. We present the following: * A review of the Data Envelopment Analysis models; * The properties and particularities of each model. In chapter 3, we present our literature survey on restrictions. Data Envelopment Analysis is a value-free frontier which has the of yielding more objective efficiency measures. However, the complete freedom in the determination of weights for the factors and products) relevant to the assessment of organisations has led to some problems such as: zero-weights and lack of discrimination between efficient organizations. Weight restriction methods were introduced in order to tackle these problems. The first part of chapter 3 in detail the motivations for weight restrictions while the second part presents the actual weight restriction rnethods.
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The adoption of lean techniques to optimise the on-shelf availability of products and drive business performance in the food industry: a South African manufacturing and retail case studyDomingo, Tony Mendes January 2013 (has links)
Includes bibliographical references. / The degree of sustaining business performance, while maintaining competitive costs, satisfied consumers and customers has become more difficult and harder to achieve. To date, both retailers and manufacturers are economically challenged as they enter into a new age and era that is characterised by a restructuring of the supply and demand known today, the one in which the consumer demand chain will both lead and direct all organisational processes. The greatest challenge in manufacturing and retail supply chains today continue to be the inconsistency of product availability. Both retailers and their manufacturers frequently find themselves in positions where they either have too much stock of specific stock-keeping units (SKUs) or insufficient stock levels of a particular SKU, Steve (2010). Retailers and their suppliers both seek to avoid the costly out-of-stock (OOS) situations, which result in lost revenue opportunity for both parties. OOS can also damage shopper loyalty as frustrated consumers might seek out alternative retailers for the same merchandise, while on the other hand suppliers' brand loyalty can be impacted if a competitor's product is substituted instead. It remains true that the two pillars of business, namely demand and supply, still rule. Traditionally, putting supply before demand, with its implied precedence, was the correct approach to apply, but in today's business environment, there is a major shift taking place, predominantly driven by the cycles in globalisation that would be faster than in the traditional way, oversupply in the fast -moving consumer goods industry, a parallel loss of pricing power, consumers with a twenty-four hours access to precise pricing information, which terminates the power of information scarcity, and shorter product life cycles. The global economic crash that represented a global economic storm led many organisations to rethink the manner in which organisations are led. A consensus exists among many authors and commentators that the emerging economic order has imposed changes to the very way companies are doing business.
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Interactive methods for multiple objective linear programming in decision supportMakaya, Makaya L January 2005 (has links)
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 144-155).
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