In the operation, planning and design of the transmission system it is of greatest concern to quantify the reliability security margin to unwanted conditions. The deterministic N-1 criterion has traditionally provided this security margin to reduce the consequences of severe conditions such as widespread blackouts. However, a deterministic criterion does not include the likelihood of different outage events. Moreover, experience from blackouts shows, e.g. in Sweden-Denmark September 2003, that the outages were not captured by the N-1 criterion. The question addressed in this thesis is how this system security margin can be quantified with probabilistic methods. A quantitative measure provides one valuable input to the decision-making process of selecting e.g. system expansions alternatives and maintenance actions in the planning and design phases. It is also beneficial for the operators in the control room to assess the associated security margin of existing and future network conditions. This thesis presents a method that assesses each component's risk to an insufficient transfer capability in the transmission system. This shows on each component's importance to the system security margin. It provides a systematic analysis and ranking of outage events' risk of overloading critical transfer sections (CTS) in the system. The severity of each critical event is quantified in a risk index based on the likelihood of the event and the consequence of the section's transmission capacity. This enables a comparison of the risk of a frequent outage event with small CTS consequences, with a rare event with large consequences. The developed approach has been applied for the generally known Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS). The result shows that the ranking of the components is highly dependent on the substation modelling and the studied system load level. With the restriction of only evaluating the risks to the transfer capability in a few CTSs, the method provides a quantitative ranking of the potential risks to the system security margin at different load levels. Consequently, the developed reliability based approach provides information which could improve the deterministic criterion for transmission system planning.

Este trabalho tem como objetivo realizar um estudo de alocação de unidades termoelétricas em sistemas elétricos de potência (SEP). O fluxo de potencia ótimo (FPO) foi utilizado para se obter o ponto ótimo de operação para o sistema e os multiplicadores de Lagrange associados às restrições. Os multiplicadores de Lagrange indicam a sensibilidade entre a função objetivo e a restrição a ele associada. Esta sensibilidade indica, quais as barras do sistema, são candidatas à alocação de novas usinas termoelétricas. Testes nos sistemas de 5 barras, IEEE 14 barras, IEEE 30 barras, equivalente CESP 440 kV de 53 barras e IEEE 118 barras comprovam a eficiência da abordagem, a qual poderá ser utilizada em estudos de planejamento da expansão do sistema. / The aim of this paper is to present a study of thermoelectrical generation allocation in electric power systems. The optimal power flow (OPF) was used to evaluate the optimal operation point for the power system and also Lagrange multipliers associated with the constraints. The Lagrange multipliers are the sensitivity between the objective function and its constraints. This sensitivity is used to verify in a power system where is the best place to incentive the allocation of new thermoelectrical power plants. Tests on the systems: 5 buses, IEEE 14 buses, IEEE 30 buses, equivalent CESP 440kV 53 buses and IEEE 118 buses showed the efficiency of the presented approach. This method of analyzing the system can be used in study of expansion planning system.

Este trabalho tem como objetivo realizar um estudo de alocação de unidades termoelétricas em sistemas elétricos de potência (SEP). O fluxo de potencia ótimo (FPO) foi utilizado para se obter o ponto ótimo de operação para o sistema e os multiplicadores de Lagrange associados às restrições. Os multiplicadores de Lagrange indicam a sensibilidade entre a função objetivo e a restrição a ele associada. Esta sensibilidade indica, quais as barras do sistema, são candidatas à alocação de novas usinas termoelétricas. Testes nos sistemas de 5 barras, IEEE 14 barras, IEEE 30 barras, equivalente CESP 440 kV de 53 barras e IEEE 118 barras comprovam a eficiência da abordagem, a qual poderá ser utilizada em estudos de planejamento da expansão do sistema. / The aim of this paper is to present a study of thermoelectrical generation allocation in electric power systems. The optimal power flow (OPF) was used to evaluate the optimal operation point for the power system and also Lagrange multipliers associated with the constraints. The Lagrange multipliers are the sensitivity between the objective function and its constraints. This sensitivity is used to verify in a power system where is the best place to incentive the allocation of new thermoelectrical power plants. Tests on the systems: 5 buses, IEEE 14 buses, IEEE 30 buses, equivalent CESP 440kV 53 buses and IEEE 118 buses showed the efficiency of the presented approach. This method of analyzing the system can be used in study of expansion planning system.

[pt] A solução do problema de planejamento da expansão da transmissão (PET) tem por objetivo geral identificar reforços a serem construídos na rede de forma a garantir a adequada interligação entre carga e geração, previstos para um determinado horizonte de estudo. No processo de solução desse problema, busca-se manter o equilíbrio ótimo entre os custos envolvidos (investimento e operação) e os níveis de qualidade e desempenho na operação do sistema reforçado. Nesse sentido, é proposta nesta dissertação de mestrado uma ferramenta de otimização especializada para solução do problema PET, a qual é baseada na técnica metaheurística Algoritmo Genético. A ferramenta proposta, denominada Algoritmo Genético Especializado (AGE-PET), faz uso de informações heurísticas fundamentadas em análises atualizadas de fluxo de potência da rede realizadas durante o processo evolutivo de solução do problema. Essas informações heurísticas são traduzidas por meio de índices de sensibilidade, os quais são integrados aos operadores genéticos inerentes à ferramenta, conduzindo a solução do problema na direção de planos de expansão de boa qualidade. Para análise e validação da metodologia proposta, é solucionado o problema PET estático de longo prazo, considerando o modelo linearizado DC com perdas ôhmicas e atendimento do critério de segurança N-1 para a rede de transmissão. Sistemas elétricos de transmissão com diferentes características e dimensões, incluindo um subsistema atual da rede interligada brasileira, são empregados nos estudos realizados. / [en] The main goal in the solution of the transmission expansion planning (TEP) is to identify reinforcements to be built in the network in order to guarantee the adequate interconnection between load and electric power generation, both foreseen for a given future planning horizon. In the process of solving this problem, the aim is to maintain the optimal balance between the costs involved (investment and operation) and the levels of quality and performance in the operation of the reinforced system. Thus, it is proposed in this dissertation a specialized optimization tool for solving the TEP problem, which is based on the metaheuristic Genetic Algorithm technique. The proposed tool, called Specialized Genetic Algorithm (SGA-TEP), makes use of heuristic information based on updated network power flow analyses carried out during the evolutionary process of solving the problem. This heuristic information is translated by means of sensitivity indices, which are integrated with the genetic operators inherent to the tool, leading to the solution of the problem in the direction of good quality expansion plans. For analysis and validation of the proposed methodology, the long-term static TEP problem is solved, considering the linearized DC model with ohmic losses and the compliance of the N-1 security criterion for the transmission network. Electric transmission systems with different characteristics and dimensions, including a recent subsystem of the Brazilian interconnected grid, are used in the case studies.