The world shipping freight market for the transportation of bulk cargo - liquid and dry - is characterised by the somewhat erratic and extreme fluctuations exhibited by many of the measures that can be used to describe the "state" of the market. Such 'measures' include the spot freight rates - the cost to the shipper of chartering a unit of shipping capacity 'on the spot' (that is, not reserving the vessel in advance), - the proportion of chartered tonnage at any time taken on a period (time) basis as opposed to a voyage (single) basis, and the rate at which orders for new vessels reach the shipyards. These factors are extremely variable, and have exhibited a similar form of behaviour for a large number of years. This present thesis describes an attempt to investigate the behaviour of the freight market (bulk cargo); the aim of the investigation being to identify the structure of the market system and to construct a System Dynamics model which describes the complex relationships in the market and which can be used to explore questions relating to present or future market behaviour. The construction of such a model is described, together with an exhaustive chapter on the analysis of the model, covering loop-analysis, the behaviour of the model under various test inputs, and the senstivity of the model to significant changes in parameter values. The final chapter considers the use of the model, and, in particular, describes its use in an investigation of the feasibility or desirability of introducing tonnagestabilization schemes into the market. Such schemes aim to prevent the freight rates from falling to unacceptably low values, by implementing a scheme whereby tonnage is withdrawn from operation and laid-up: the decrease in the supply of tonnage then has a positive influence on the freight rates. It is concluded that the problems involved in designing such schemes preclude the schemes from implementation. The appendices cover the various data used in the determination of market relationships, as well as the computer listing, in Fortran, of the market model. Also included in an appendix is a description of the application of System Dynamics to a hypothetical company. The tcompany model' allows for the examination of chartering policies and lay-up policies under a variety of conditions of market demand.

[pt] O objetivo desta dissertação é desenvolver e demonstrar a aplicabilidade de um modelo multicritério para a seleção de opções de afretamento de navios para exportação e importação de petróleo e derivados, segundo dois vetores de transformação do transporte marítimo internacional – Shipping 4.0 e Green Shipping. A pesquisa pode ser considerada aplicada, descritiva e metodológica. Quanto aos meios de investigação, a metodologia compreende: (i) pesquisa bibliográfica e documental sobre os temas centrais da pesquisa; (ii) caracterização das principais tecnologias digitais embarcadas e sistemas inteligentes que vêm sendo empregados na indústria naval, associando-as a requisitos funcionais e operacionais de navios inteligentes e sustentáveis; (iii) análise morfológica para concepção de configurações alternativas de navios inteligentes e sustentáveis; (iv) desenvolvimento de modelo multicritério para seleção de opções de afretamento de navios inteligentes e sustentáveis no contexto de exportação e importação de petróleo e derivados; e (v) demonstração da aplicabilidade do modelo conceitual, mediante a realização de um estudo empírico em uma empresa de transporte marítimo, subsidiária da Petrobras – a Transpetro. Destaca-se como resultado principal um modelo multicritério inovador para seleção de opções de afretamento de navios para exportação e importação de petróleo e derivados, que emprega análise morfológica para a geração das configurações alternativas de navios inteligentes e sustentáveis e um método multicritério de apoio à decisão para a seleção propriamente dita das alternativas de afretamento, segundo uma visão conjunta dos dois vetores de transformação do transporte marítimo internacional. O estudo empírico desenvolvido da Transpetro permitiu demonstrar a aplicabilidade do modelo em um contexto organizacional real e evidenciar seu potencial de replicação em outras empresas de transporte marítimo no Brasil e no mundo que desejam operar com novos modelos de negócio, segundo o novo paradigma de transporte marítimo internacional. / [en] This dissertation aims to develop and demonstrate the applicability of a multicriteria model for the selection of shipping freight options for export and import of crude oil and derivatives, aligned to the new paradigm of international maritime transport driven by two vectors of transformation - Shipping 4.0 and Green Shipping. The research can be considered applied, descriptive and methodological. The methodology comprised: (i) bibliographic and documental analysis on the central themes of the research; (ii) characterization of the key enabling digital technologies that have been used in the shipping industry, associating them with the functional and operational requirements of intelligent and sustainable ships; (iii) morphological analysis to design alternative configurations of shipping freight options for exporting and importing of oil and derivatives; (iv) development of a multicriteria model for the selection of shipping freight options for exporting and importing oil and derivatives, according to the new paradigm of international maritime transport; and (v) empirical study carried out in a maritime transport company, a subsidiary of Petrobras – Transpetro. The main result of this research is an innovative multicriteria model for the selection of shipping freight options for exporting and importing oil and derivatives, which integrates morphological analysis with a multicriteria approach for selecting shipping freight options, aligned to a joint vision of shipping 4.0 and green shipping. Furthermore, the empirical study developed at Transpetro made it possible to demonstrate the applicability of the model in a corporate context and to highlight its potential for replication in other maritime transport companies in Brazil and in the world, which wish to operate according to new business models in the new paradigm of international maritime transport.