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Past research has primarily focused on tornado outbreak intensity; however, this study presents an updated ranking index scheme that provides intensity ranks for both hail and tornado-dominant outbreaks. All outbreaks spanning 1960 - 2022 were obtained using a 24-hour kernel-density-based approach to map the severe weather report density. Notably, secular trends in the annual means of many of these variables (such as the number of hail and wind reports) showed a significant upward trend until 2010, after which that trend flattened. Thus, these fields were detrended using support vector regression that better fit these parameters' underlying annual time series. The resulting indices delineate between tornado and hail-dominant outbreaks, allowing further investigation into mixed-mode outbreaks and synoptic-scale precursors of these unique outbreak modes. It also provides an objective measure of outbreak intensity which can be useful when assessing potential future impacts from events with similar meteorological characteristics.

[pt] Dentre as manifestações da natureza de grande intensidade que têm acontecido em algumas regiões brasileiras, uma das que carecem de mais estudos direcionados ao território nacional é o tornado. Por ser um fenômeno que não pode ser evitado, a ocorrência de tal desastre pode causar inúmeros impactos ambientais e sócio-econômicos. Com o propósito de avaliar a ação de um tornado sobre certas estruturas civis de usinas nucleares, estão sendo estudadas as forças mecânicas, os efeitos barométricos e as ações dos mísseis originários de um tornado de projeto chocando-se com três estruturas selecionadas: o prédio do reator, o edifício de alimentação de emergência e a torre de ventilação. Para isso, está sendo adotado o modelo de campo de ventos proposto por Wen, baseado na solução teórica de Kuo. Ademais, para melhor compreenssão do modelo, é feita uma análise dos parâmetros utilizados no método, demonstrando como alterações nesses elementos influenciam nos valores das velocidades calculadas. Também é feita uma análise comparativa entre os efeitos de inércia e arrasto, além dos esforços globais nas estruturas avaliados como ponto material e corpo extenso, e uma breve descrição da geração da curva de ameaça para a região de Angra dos Reis, desenvolvido por Almeida. E, por fim, mediante uma simulação numérica, apresenta-se a resposta dinâmica para a torre de ventilação quando atingida pelo tornado proposto. / [en] Among the nature great intensity manifestations that have happened in some brazilian regions, one that needs more directed attention in civil enginnering structures design is the tornado. For being a phenomenon that cannot be prevented, the occurrence of such disaster can cause innumerable ambient and partner-economic impacts. With the intention to evaluate the action of a tornado on certain nuclear power plant civil engineering structures, mechanical forces, barometric effects and the action of flying missiles,under a tornado action on three selected structures: the Reactor Building, the Emergency Feed Building and the Vent Stack. For this, it is being adopted the Wen’s wind field model, based on the theoretical Kuo’s solution. Furthermore, for better model understanding, variations on the used parameters are made to indicate how these changes may influence the calculated velocities. Also a comparative analysis is done between inertia and drag effects, beyond the global effects on the evaluated structures, as material point and extensive body, for instance, and a short description on the generation of a tornado hazard curve for Angra dos Reis region, according to Almeida. And, finally, by a numerical simulation, a dynamic response is studied for the Vent Stack reached by an artificial tornado.

[pt] Tornados são fenômenos atmosféricos de pequena escala com grande poder de destruição ao longo de sua trilha e têm sido reportados com freqüência crescente no território brasileiro. Do ponto de vista da engenharia de estruturas, atenção especial deve ser destinada a instalações sensíveis, como centrais nucleares e torres de transmissão de energia. A despeito do registro do colapso dessas últimas por conta da ação de tornados no território nacional, pesquisas brasileiras dessa natureza são incipientes. Neste contexto, estudam-se os efeitos mecânicos decorrentes da incidência de tornados sobre torres de transmissão, comparando-os com valores prescritos em normas para ventos usuais de projeto. Para isso, utiliza-se o modelo de campo de vento proposto por Wen (1975) a partir do trabalho de Kuo (1971) e simulações de torres de transmissão representativas da região das bacias hidrográficas do Sul e Sudeste, propícias a tornados. A partir desses estudos, propõe-se e exemplifica-se uma metodologia para avaliação dos efeitos globais tornádicos no projeto das torres de transmissão. O método é construído através da variação de diversos parâmetros envolvidos no problema, buscando-se situações críticas. Na seqüência, realiza-se uma análise mais abrangente da demanda tornádica e sugere-se, a partir da mesma, uma metodologia para avaliação da probabilidade anual de falha de uma torre de transmissão a eventos dessa natureza, que é ilustrada ao final. / [en] Tornadoes are small-scale atmospheric phenomena that have large power of destruction along their path. Tornado occurrence has been reported with increasing frequency in Brazilian territory. From the point of view of engineering, special attention should be destined to sensible structures, such as nuclear power plants and towers for transmission of electric energy. In spite of observed collapses of these systems due to the action of tornadoes in national territory, Brazilian researches on this subject are incipient. In this context, the mechanical effects of tornado incidence on transmission towers are studied and compared with values prescribed by the usual standards for wind design. The wind field model proposed by Wen (1975) based on the work of Kuo (1971) and simulations of representative transmission towers of South and Southeast Brazilian river basins, favorable to such events, are used. From these studies, a methodology for evaluation of the tornadic global effects in the design of transmission towers is proposed and exemplified. The method is carried out through the variation of several parameters involved in the problem, seeking to critical situations. Finally, a broader tornadic demand analysis is made and a methodology for evaluation of transmission tower annual probability of failure due to tornado events is suggested and illustrated.

This research assesses shifts in tornado occurrence pattens in space and time employing continental United States tornado records with an Enhanced Fujita (EF) rating equal or greater than 1. In similar research, most researchers discard tornado records prior to 1980 due to factors including: magnitude anomalies related to development of the Fujita Scale, unpredictability in tornado reporting (escalating populace, storm spotters, and technologic improvements), and better data records from the Census Bureau. We therefore constructed two datasets using tornados recorded in the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather GIS (SVRGIS) database: 1950-2019 (dataset 1) and 1980-2019 (dataset 2). The goals for this study were to 1) determine whether spatiotemporal patterns of recorded tornado activity have shifted over time, and 2) determine whether inclusion of pre-1980 tornado data changes the findings from 1). This study employed Space-Time Pattern Mining (STPM) to construct four spacetime cubes (STC) in ArcGIS Pro. Emerging Hot Spot Analysis (EHS) was employed to identify the changes in tornado occurrence (number of incidents in a STC cell) and magnitude (sum of tornado EF ratings for all incidents in a STC cell). EHS displayed increased tornado activity in the Southeast and decreased activity for areas in the Great Plains for both occurrence and magnitude in both datasets. This is interpreted as significant intensifying hot spots in the Southeast region and diminishing hot spots in the Great Plains indicating an east-south-east shift for both datasets. Similar findings for both datasets indicate that inclusion of the less reliable pre-1980’s tornado data does not change the results and we recommend that the practice of discarding pre-1980’s tornado data in tornado occurrence research be reconsidered.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Geography / Bimal K. Paul / Given the recent recognition that not only physical processes, but social, political and economic aspects of hazards determine vulnerability and impact of an event, the next logical step would seem to be the development of classification systems that address those factors. Classifications for natural disasters, such as the Fujita Scale for tornadoes and the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, focus on the physical properties of the event, not the impact on a community. Pre-event vulnerability to a natural hazard is determined by many factors, such as age, race, income and gender, as well as infrastructure such as density of the built environment and health of the industrial base. The behavior of residents in the community, construction quality of shelters and warning system effectiveness also affect vulnerability. If pre-event vulnerability is to be determined by such factors, post-event impact should, at least in part, be as well. The goal of this research was to develop the Tornado Impact-Community Vulnerability Index (TICV) that utilizes variables such as the number of persons killed, economic impacts and social vulnerability to describe to the level of impact a tornado event has on community. As tornadoes that strike unpopulated areas are often difficult to classify, even in the traditional sense, the TICV will take into consideration only events that strike communities with defined political boundaries, or “places” according to the U.S. Census Bureau. By assigning a rating to the impact, this index will allow the severity of the storm to be understood in terms of its effect on a specific community and hence its impact, rather than an physically-based rating that gives only a broad, general indication of its physical strength.

The comparison of aerodynamic characteristics for a combat aircraft studywas addressed in this work. The thesis is a feasibility study which reviewsthe workload and output quality efficiency of different numerical and experimentalmethods often used during conceptual aircraft design.For this reason the Vortex Lattice Method (VLM), Euler or Reynolds-Averaged-Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulations were compared to the moreheavier Large Eddy Simulation (LES) which also has the capability to capturealso more complex flow physics, such as those that occur, for example,at high angles of attack. To be able to crosscheck the numerical results,the same static alpha sweep tests were executed in a tunnel. Thereby itwas discovered that it was quite challenging to reach the same values in thewater tunnel as those previously calculated in computational fluid dynamics(CFD) due to different technical issues.However it could be shown that LES simulations can be today a suitabletool for conceptual aircraft design, as they offer much higher levels ofaccuracy and give the designer the possibility to check the new study at anearly stage along the border of the aircraft’s flight envelope.

<p>Several programs exist today for calculating aerodynamic coefficients that with some simplificationsprovide fast approximations of the values for a real aircraft.Four different programs were analyzed for this report: Tornado, AVL, PANAIR and a handbook-typepreliminary method. In addition, ANSYS CFX was used for airfoil validation. For calculation of the zerolift drag, an approximation was computed in order to calculate the remaining values that were notcalculated by the software: drag contribution for fuselages, nacelles and some horizontal stabilizersand fins.Different types of aircraft were selected for trial: two commercial aircraft (Boeing 747-100 and 777-300), a TF-8A research airplane (with area rule application: some additions were made to the fuselageto prevent large variations in the cross-section when the contribution of the wing is added), a LockheedConstellation C-69 used as a military cargo airplane, a Boeing Stratocruiser used by the USAF withtwo configurations (basic and bomber), and an Aero Commander 680 Super, similar to a Cessna 162.Two airfoils (NACA2412, 0012) were also analyzed, to investigate the limitations of software designedfor three-dimensional calculations.The accuracy of the results showed that the validity of the software depends on the planform of theaircraft, as well as the simulation parameters Mach number and Reynolds number. The shape of thewing caused some of the methods to have serious difficulties in converging to valid results, orincreased the simulation time beyond acceptable limits.</p> / <p>Numera finns det olika program för beräkning av de aerodynamiska koefficienterna från en modellmed vissa förenklingar som ger en snabb approximation av värdena för ett verkligt flygplan.Fyra olika program har analyserats för denna rapport: Tornado, AVL, PANAIR och en handbokbaserad preliminär metod. Dessutom användes ANSYS CFX för validering av vingprofiler . Vidberäkningen av noll-lyft motståndet, en approximation användes för de återstående delarna som inteberäknas av de andra metoderna: motståndsbidraget från flygkroppar, gondoler och vissa horisontellastabilisatorer och fenor.Olika flygplaner har testats: två trafikflygplan (Boeing 747-100 och 777-300), ett TF-8Aforskningsflygplan (med area regel användning: några tillägg gjordes på flygkroppen för att tvärsnitteninte har stora variationer när bidraget från vingen läggas), ett Lockheed Constellation C-69, ett BoeingStratocruiser som används av USAF i två konfigurationer (den vanliga och bombplan), och ett AeroCommander 680 Super, som liknar ett Cessna 162. Två vingprofiler (NACA 2412, 0012) analyseradesockså, för att kontrollera begränsningarna av programmen avsedd för tredimensionella beräkningar.Riktigheten av resultaten visade att giltigheten av programmen beror på formen av flygplanernasvingar, samt de simulationernas parametrar: Mach nummer och Reynolds nummer. Formen på vingenorsakade några av de metoderna att ha stora svårigheter med konvergensen till giltiga resultat, ellerökat simulering tid över acceptabla gränser.</p>