少子化問題使婦產科醫師的工作環境受到衝擊，人力短缺情形嚴重，為了解並預測未來婦產科醫療服務市場的供需情形，本研究使用1997-2011年健保資料庫數據，以及戶政司與經建會人口資料，分析婦產科醫師的人力變動特性及趨勢。 研究結果顯示，雖然產科醫師人數持續下滑，但由於出生人口持續降低，反而讓每1000出生人口對比醫生數有逐漸提高趨勢，人均年接生水準也可大致維持在固定水準。此外，新進婦產科醫師過少，7成以上的醫師又集中在45至64歲，未來當主要供給人力面臨退休年齡時，婦產科醫師總數將迅速減少，使婦產科醫師與女性人口醫病比隨之下滑。深究婦產科醫師人數減少的緣由，發現少子化的影響程度有超過7成6的比例，同時也發現，醫療環境不佳確實也會影響新進醫師的選擇。政府若欲解決婦產科醫師人力缺乏問題，需著重增加醫學生選擇進入婦產科的誘因。 / To examine the current supply of practicing obstetrician-gynecologists and project the future supply under low fertility rate, a discrete actuarial supply model was developed. Supply projections were examined using visiting information form the National Health Insurance research databases. We found the numbers of obstetrician is expected to continuously decline from its current level, whereas the number of obstetrician/gynecologists (OB/GYNs) per 1000 births will still increase because of the declining number of births. Besides, the number of obstetrician per 1000 births can be roughly maintained at a fixed level. Projections show that the total supply of OB/GYNs will sharply fall in recent years because the number of new physicians continues to diminish, while more than 70% of workforce is over 45 years old. Among two possible factors affecting growth or decline, the ones that seem most important is low fertility rate. These results highlight the necessity for developing a work environment that attracts young physician to obstetrics and gynecology.