本研究目的主要在了解資訊(數位)滙流(Information Convergence)下廣播產業發展趨勢、業者各自優勢及因應策略，內涵則以數位廣播為主要研究對象，分別包含「數位音訊廣播」、「網際網路廣播」及「3G數位廣播」等三類。 影響廣播產業發展因素眾多，其中有確定性、可預測性及不確定性三類，本文引用「產業情境模擬(Scenario Analysis)進行廣播產業未來發展趨勢之整體性研究，產業情境模擬認為不確性因素是影響產業發展最重要因素。本文分別從文獻探討，並參考專家之意見，萃取「數位技術發展」、「新廣播終端設備配合程度」、「廣播數位內容產業的興盛與否」及「經營模式的建立」等四項為不確定因素。 經由「產業情境模擬」分析，本文建議： 一、數位技術方面： (一)數位音訊廣播(DAB)部份：「已進入數位廣播之業者」應積極規劃數 位頻道內容及應用，俟政府核發營業執照，才能推動數位廣播的發 展；「待進入數位廣播業之業者」則建議尋求與「已進入數位廣播 之業者」合作，進而能轉型為數位化電台。 (二)3G數位廣播部份：3G接收機在車儎端目前尚未有模組，可視為未來 發展願景，廣播業者應加強節目內容的蒐集及數位頻道規畫，以因應 未來趨勢。 (三)網際網路廣播電台部份：本身亦具電台身分，可進行內容蒐集與利用 豐富的內容，設計加值的經營模式；若頻寬問題解決，未來可把網 際網路當數據傳輸主幹，為各式終端設備製作數位內容或轉型為視訊 電台。 二、終端接收設備方面： (一)終端接收設備整合：必須研發出螢幕大且誼人式介面、操作簡單、輸 入容易，整合與解決廣播新舊系統、網路、藍芽(Bluetooth)、電 腦、3G及數位音訊等問題之終端設備。 (二)雙網手機應用：透過無線區域網路（WLAN）及行動電話（Cellular） 網路，進行先進的應用與服務。 三、市場開發方面： (一)未來廣播業有兩大族群，一為開車族；一為電腦使用族；DAB的引進 可以大幅提昇車用音響的附加價值，廣播業者可與車商密切合作，優 先開發車儎數位廣播。 (二)閱聽眾收播習慣方面：降低收聽價格與提升內容應用及品質。前者如 收費可採其一固定式月租費，不限上線時數。後者如須針對廣播業特 性，設計出閱聽眾所喜歡節目與數據應用。 四、經營模式方面： (一)完整資料庫內容，授權或加值服務。 (二)網站的建立，進行線上交易。 五、數位內容經營方面：增加資訊人員，針對電台因活動或廣播等所產生 內容進行整理與歸類，未來可就內容進行加值服務。 六、產業價值鏈方面：短期內應仍維持目前經營型態，長期言則需清楚電 台定位，或只從事本身最專長部份、或就節目提供、頻道經營、廣播 系統業等分別成立子公司，一方面符合法制要求，一方面依優勢經 營。 七、媒體跨業經營方面：廣播業除擁有既定閱聽眾，最大優勢在於內容的 蒐集，不可忽視網路廣播電台的發展，當頻寬問題後，傳統廣播業可 利用豐富內容進行加值服務，或轉型為視訊電台或Set Top Box 經營 類型。 八、就政府角色扮演： (一)前端接收機標準的制定者 (二)產業發展的推動者 (三)法規制定的完成 / The main purpose of the research is the understanding of broadcasting industry development trend under the Information Convergence, dealers’ respective dominance and their strategies. Digital Broadcast is the main research object, including Digital Audio Broadcast, Internet Broadcast and 3G Digital Broadcast. There are many factors influencing the Broadcasting industry, among which are categories of affirmation, prediction and uncertainty. Scenario Analysis is cited here to investigate the broadcasting industry development trend in the future. Scenario Analysis thinks the uncertainty factor influences the industry development most. With the document discussion and reference of professionals’ opinions, we abstract four parts, “digital technique development,” “coordination level of new broadcast terminal apparatus, “whether digital broadcast content industry prosperous or not,” and “the construction of business model” as uncertainty factors. With the analysis of “Scenario Analysis”, we suggest as followed. 1.Digital Technique Aspect (1)Digital Audio Broadcast (DAB) “Dealers who have already entered digital broadcast industry”should actively arrange digital channel content and its application. They cannot promote digital broadcast development until the government issues the business license. “Dealers waiting in the line of the digital broadcast industry ”suggest they cooperate with “the dealers who have already entered digital broadcast industry,” which enables the industry transform into digital station. (2)3G Digital Broadcast 3G receiver so far has no model in car and this is viewed as a perspective of the future development. To keep pace with the future trend, the broadcasting dealers should enforce material collection and the arrangement of digital channel. (3)Internet Broadcast As a station, it can work on the material collection and design the value-added business model by using the abundant material. If the broadband problem is solved, Internet can be used as the main assess of transferring data in the future. It will help all kinds of terminal apparatus produce digital content or transform the Internet broadcast into video broadcast. 2.Terminal Receiving Apparatus (1)Integration of Terminal Receiving Apparatus It is necessary to invent a favorable interface with big, simple operation and input method. Terminal apparatus are also needed to be invented to integrate and solve problems of new as well as old broadcast system, Internet, Bluetooth, computer, 3G, digital audio and some so on. (2)The use of Double-Network Through Wireless Area Network (WLAN) and Cellular Network, the advanced use and service are carried on. 3.The Development of Market (1)Future Development The broadcast industry in the future includes two group, car drivers and computer users. The introduction of DAB (Digital Audio Broadcast) greatly enhances the additional value of automobile used stereo. Broadcast dealers can cooperate with the automobile businessmen and develop car digital broadcast in precedence. (2)Audiences’habits of reception Decrease the listening price while enhance the material use and quality. In the former one, the price required, for example, can be fixed as a monthly payment without limitation of time spent on line. The example of the latter one is the design of readers and audiences’favorable program, based on the broadcast industry characteristic, and data application. 4.Business Model (1)Completion of the materials in database; accreditation or additional service. (2)The construction of website and the trade on line. 5.Digital Content Business Increase the number of information people; arrange and categorize the content produced by stations’activities or broadcast. In the future, additional service is provided according to the content. 6.Industry Value Chain In short term, the current business style should be maintained. In long term, we should confirm the status of station, work on our professional field only, or set up chain companies according to the programs provided, channel management, broadcast system and so on. On one hand we comply with the requirement of regulations; on the other, we manage company according to the domination. 7.Cross- Industry Media Business Aside from having the fixed audiences, the broadcasting dealers have the greatest dominance in collecting material. The development of Internet broadcast cannot be ignored. After the broadband problem is solved, the traditional broadcast dealers can provide additional service by using the abundant data or they can transform the station into video station or Set Top Box. 8. Roles Government Plays (1)The enactor of front end receiver standard (2)Promoter of industry development (3)The completion of regulation