中國被稱為是一個已崛起的世界大國已是不爭的事實。然而為何中國會迅速崛起，除了外在因素的配合外，最重要還是要歸功於鄧小平實施「改革開放」以來，社會知識增長，經濟蓬勃發展的緣故，其中中國政府高層對智庫及學者、專家的重視，使各項政策的出臺，在合理性、周延性、可操作性與前瞻性上大為提高應為重要成因。 毛澤東當政時期智庫幾乎不存在（尤其是文革時期）。鄧小平掌權後重建一些舊有研究機構，並陸續成立新的研究機構，是為中國現代智庫發展之濫觴。近30年來，中國官方智庫蓬勃發展，而民間智庫（尤其是政治、外交、軍事方面）卻因受政治環境的影響，出現巨大起伏變化，其後續發展值得觀察。 中國官方智庫扮演的角色頗多，與美國等西方智庫比較，其中擔任政府政策宣傳者的角色，以及作為情報機關的掩護機構，較為特殊，另外部份官方智庫已成為政府與外國「二軌」對話之主要管道。在功能上，由於中國由落後中崛起，故其發揮之功能頗為顯著，至於「旋轉門」及儲備與提供高層官員人才二項功能，由於中國遴選人才制度的關係，目前發揮有限，惟未來可望逐漸提升。 由於政治制度的不同，中國智庫相較於西方，有以下三點差異，第一、高度的壟斷性，面對民間智庫的競爭相對較少；第二、經費來源單一、量少；第三、可透過一種屬於常態卻「非正規」管道直接提供高層政策建議，發揮其影響力。 中國民間智庫因為法律註冊問題及政治信任問題，生存發展遭受挫折，針對中國特有的政治環境，吾人以為中國智庫未來可能出現以下的發展走向：一、續將部份官方研究機構改為民間（或半官方）智庫，二、調整法律註冊方式，開放民眾成立真正民間智庫。 / China, being called a rising world strong power, is an indisputable fact.Why can China rise rapidly? Apart from external factors to support its development, the most important internal factor is the social and economical grows due to the “reform and opening” policy of Deng Xiaoping. With consulting to think tanks, scholars and experts, Chinese government carry out national policy in a more rational, compre- hensive, feasible, far-sighted way. One could hardly find a think tank in Mao’s period (especially during the Cultural Revolution). After Deng came to power, he reconstructed some research institutions and established new ones, which became Chinese modern think tanks later on. China's official think tanks have acted vigorously for nearly 30 years. However, the non-official think tanks (especially in the areas of politics, diplomacy, and military) have gone through huge ups and downs with the changing of political environment. The subsequent development of the think tanks needs to be watched closely. Compared with think tanks in the West, China's official think tanks play multiple roles. They not only serve as media for government propaganda, but also act as fronts for intelligence agencies. Further- more, some of the official think tanks have served as the "dual-track" channels to communicate with foreign governments. Think tanks play important roles for China’s development in recent years. Their func- tions, however, as a “revolving door” and human power providers, are still limited. It is expected that above situation will change gradually. There are at least three differences between Chinese think tanks and the western ones. First, a high degree of monopoly- there is little competition from non-official think tanks. Second, they have a single and limited source of funding. Third, they provide policy suggestions to the government officers through normal, but "informal" channels. It is difficult to register as a “think tank” in China. Even a think tank can register legally; it’s still hard to get political trust from the government. This thesis finds that there are two possibilities for the development of Chinese think tanks in the future. First, Chinese government will transfer the government research institutes to non-official (or semi-official) think tanks. Second, Chinese government will amend the law to allow the public to set up non-official think tanks.