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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

國際公司改名對股票市場和借款成本的影響 / Two essays on the benefits and costs of corporate name changes: evidence from stock and loan markets

林曉梅, Lin, Hsiao Mei Unknown Date (has links)
本文包含兩篇文章,分別探討國際市場公司改名對企業股價與借款成本的影響。從本文的實證分析結果得知,國際市場公司改名對公司股票價格與其貸款成本有截然不同的影響。 Cooper, Dimitrov and Rau (2001)與Cooper et al. (2005)發現當網際網路興盛時,不論公司業務主體是否與網際網路有關,於公司名稱加入與網路有關文字之公司其股價報酬上升且維持一段時間;然而,當網際網路衰弱時,將公司名稱刪除網路字樣之公司,其股價出現顯著異常報酬,使得股東財富增加。鑒於近年來國際石油價格急遽上升,之後又逢美國次級房貸風暴因而暴跌,國際石油價格的波動走勢提供本文第一篇文章之研究動機。本文第一篇文章的研究目的在於探討當國際石油價格持續上升時,國際市場公司是否傾向變更其公司名稱,將其公司名稱加入「石油」或「原油」等相關之文字,透過公司名稱的變更提高企業價值;而當國際石油價格急速下降時,國際市場公司是否反而傾向將其公司名稱刪除「石油」或「原油」等相關之文字,以防止股價下跌。此外,由於美國與加拿大地理位置與文化相近,過去文獻常將兩者作比較。顧此,本文進一步探討美國公司與加拿大公司更名對企業股價的影響是否有顯著地差異。 本文發現當國際石油價格上漲時,美國公司傾向將其公司名稱加入「石油」或「原油」等相關之文字且其股價報酬上升,企業價值增加。然而,當美國次級房貸風暴時期,投資人深恐石油產業將受美國次級房貸危機影響,因此變更公司名稱之公司其股價下跌。另外,本文發現由於近年來加拿大為世界主要石油輸出國之一,投資人對石油產業公司的了解度較佳,因此美國與加拿大公司更名對企業股價有不同的影響。 過去文獻主要以股東角度探討公司更名議題,本文第二篇文章主要從銀行貸款者的角度來探討公司更名的影響。本文認為公司更名提高貸款者與借款者之間的資訊不對稱,增加銀行貸款者評估借款者未來還款能力的不確定性。為了要降低不確定性帶來的財務風險,銀行貸款者傾向提高借款利息或增加要求抵押擔保品。本文發現在公司更名後,公司須負擔較高的借款成本、較多的抵押品擔保與合約限制。此外,公司更名後,願意加入聯合貸款的銀行數目降低。 這些實證結果支持本文的推論。在股票市場上,公司變更公司名稱對企業價值有顯著地影響,管理階層藉由變更公司名稱影響投資人對其的看法(investor sentiment),進而提高股票價值。然而,在借貸市場上,公司變更名稱提高公司與貸款者間之資訊不對稱,公司更名須償付較高的借款成本和較多的抵押品擔保。本文的實證結果說明金融機構對公司治理具有監督和管理的重要角色。 / Two essays are comprised in this dissertation to examine the benefits and costs of corporate name changes. The empirical investigation on corporate name changes in stock market and loan market provide the entirely different insights on the effect of corporate name changes. With the recent oil price in surge and then crash, I have the opportunity to examine whether firms have the incentives to changes their names when oil price surge. In the first essay, I examine the wealth effect of corporate name changes involving oil-related terms. Following Cooper, Dimitrov and Rau (2001) and Cooper et al. (2005), I argue that firms tend to change their name by adding the words “oil” or “petroleum” to names when oil price in surge, while deleting the words “oil” or “petroleum” to names when oil price in a crash. I also compare the effect of corporate name changes between U.S. and Canadian stock market. Consistent with the prediction, I provide the evidence that there exists valuation effect of corporate name changes involving oil-related terms in U.S. stock market when the recent oil price surge. When financial crisis exploded U.S. stock market reacts significant negatively to corporate name changes. This is perhaps because investors expect economic difficulty caused by the financial crisis, which in turn, would hurt the oil industry and high oil price is not expected to be sustainable. On the contrary, relative to U.S. market, Canadian stock market has little reaction on the corporate name changes regardless of the type of name changes or market condition. This opposite results can be attributed to the different economic structure between U.S. and Canadian market. In the second essay, I focus on the effect of corporate name changes from the perspective of bank loan holders. I examine the cost of corporate name changes in the loan contracting. A corporate name changes creates information asymmetry and uncertainty about the future cash flow of a firms. To reduce the increase of credit risk, bank loan holders would attempt to enhance the efficient monitoring by tighter contracting terms and more concentrated lending structure. Consistent with this argument, the empirical results show that loan after name changes have significantly higher loan spread, higher probability of being secured, more general covenant restrictions and fewer lenders participate in a syndicated loan. Following Wu (2010), I categorize corporate name changes into different types of name changes and examine whether there is different effect among different types of name changes. I find that firms experiencing radical name changes are more likely to bear more financing costs. Lastly, I provide the evidence that firms pay higher borrowing costs when investors experience a significantly positive reaction from stock market through cosmetic name changes, which illustrate the importance of banks playing the role of monitoring and controlling borrowers.
2

模糊時間數列分析與預測—以石油價格為例 / Fuzzy Time Series Analysis and Forcasting – with an Example of Oil Prices

陳蒼山 Unknown Date (has links)
石油是維持人類生存必需的商品,是容易運輸、儲存、使用的能源。石油價格的漲跌,將直接或間接影響經濟成長與物價水準。以公司營運來說,對海運業、航空業、石油公司等石油高度相關行業來說,購油成本一直佔據公司總成本相當大的比例,因此石油價格的變動,將使得會計年度內的購油成本高低相差甚大,進而影響公司整體營運利潤,因此購油決策重要性自不待言。當預測油價會上漲時,則公司將會以較低的石油價格購入較多的石油事先加以貯存或使用,以降低全年購油成本與分散風險。本文嘗試著導入模糊統計的概念並建立多變量多階自廻歸模糊時間數列模式,以期應用在油價之預測。實證方面則收集紐約商品交易所 (NYMEX: New York Mercantile Exchange) 的每日原油收盤價原始資料,針對原油價格進行模糊時間數列分析與預測,並比較命中率、誤差率與準確度。相信這對於購油風險控管及降低成本,提高公司盈餘深具意義。

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