頁岩氣對台灣化石業的影響與建議 / As America successfully explore shale gas and eagerly discuss its application from gas exporting to petrochemical industry downstream feedstock, shale gas comprehensive influence has made its self a hot topic since 2010. One third of Taiwan gas is from Malaysia and Qatar with importing cost around USD13-15/mmBTU, which are mostly used for power generation and domestic use and few are used for petrochemical industry because gas cost is too high comparing with naphtha. However, shale gas has brought down gas price to below USD4/mmBTU that provides a competitive advantage for America manufacturers and changes production method from naphtha to gas for petrochemical industry crackers. On the contrary, Asian petrochemical industry which are naphtha based crackers will face competition from America makers who has cheaper production cost and over supplied in domestic market and looking for international market. Taiwan petrochemical industry, dominated by two major petrochemical companies, is facing several difficulties including limited space for capacity expansion and furious competition from China and ASEAN. We will explore the possibility for Taiwan to import shale gas and any solutions to improve our situation.

美國擁有豐富的石油儲量，目前已探明的石油儲量即達到 485 億桶，居世界 第 9 位；同時也於 2014 年追過沙烏地阿拉伯，以平均每日 1164 萬桶的產量成為 世界上最大石油生產國。但另一方面，美國每日的石油消耗量，更大於歐洲及歐 亞大陸內 29 個國家的每日消耗量的總合，成為世界上最大的石油消費國。身為 世界上最大的能源消費國及戰後世界秩序的主導者，同時歷經一、二次世界大戰 及石油危機的重大衝擊後，深知能源的穩定供應是國家安全的重要基礎，美國必 須盡全力透過外交甚至軍事手段以確保能源的安全，所以歷屆政府都以能源安全 作為國家安全及外交政策的重點。 中東是目前全球己探明石油儲量最大的地區，也是全球石油產量最大的地區， 是以美國以能源戰略為導向的外交政策（簡稱能源外交）傳統上是以中東石油為 重心，美國也將中東地區的均勢與穩定、確保石油運輸通道的安全等視為其最根 本的國家利益之一。二次世界大戰之後，美國為了擴張或鞏固其在中東地區的影 響力而投入了大量的資源進行政治、經濟及軍事的干預。而頁岩油的出現使得美 國石油自給率大幅提高，對中東地區石油的依賴也迅速下滑。 頁岩油的出現是否會讓美國改變其向中東傾斜的外交政策，進一步將其全球 戰略部署重心進行調整至快速崛起的亞洲地區，值得我們觀察與探討。本論文以 文獻研究之方式，透過分析美國對石油進口的依賴程度與其在中東發生軍事衝突 時所採用的外交政策工具之間的關聯，嘗試探討在頁岩油革命大幅提高美國能源 自給率後，是否會影響美國對中東地區事務的干預程度。 本研究發現，石油進口比例的確影響了美國在中東地區所運用的外交政策工 具。石油進口比例高時，美國面對中東的跨國軍事衝突時傾向採取強度較高的外 交政策工具；石油進口比例低時，則採取干預強度較低的外交政策工具。是以本 研究認為，在頁岩油革命使美國進一步降低對進口石油的依賴後、將使中東這個 提供美國主要石油來源的地區的重要性降低。但另一方面，中東除了提供美國重 要的石油來源，亦是全球的石油供應中心，美國對中東地區的影響力不僅關係到 美國的能源安全，亦關係到美國全球霸權的地位。 / United States has abundant oil reserves that reserves reached 485 billion barrels, ranking No. 9 in the world; and also chase in 2014 over Saudi-Arabia, to 1164 million barrels of production per day on average to become the world largest oil producer. On the other hand, the US daily oil consumption, the greater the total combined daily consumption in Europe and Eurasia in the 29 countries, the world's largest oil consumer. As the world's largest energy consumer and the postwar world order leader, after a while, after the Second World War and the significant impact of the oil crisis, we know that stable supply of energy is an important basis for the national security of the United States must do efforts through diplomatic and even military means to guarantee energy security, the successive governments have focused on energy security as national security and foreign policy. The Middle East is currently the world's largest oil reserves in the region have been proven, is the world's largest oil production area, based on the US foreign policy-oriented energy strategy (referred to energy diplomacy) is traditionally focus on Middle East oil, the United States will in the Middle East balance and stability in the region, to ensure the safety of oil transport corridor, etc. regarded as one of the most fundamental interests of their country. After World War II, the United States in order to expand or consolidate its influence in the Middle East and put a lot of resources, political, economic, and military intervention. The emergence of shale oil self-sufficiency rate of such a substantial increase in US oil dependence on Middle East oil is also declining rapidly. Shale oil occurs whether the United States will change its foreign policy towards the Middle East tilt further its global strategic center of gravity to adjust to the rapid rise of Asia, we should observe and discuss. In this paper, after the manner of literature, through the analysis of foreign policy tools related U.S. dependence on oil imports and its military conflict in the Middle East used between attempts to discuss a substantial increase in US energy self-sufficiency rate in shale oil revolution, whether the United States will affect the level of intervention in the Middle East affairs. The study found that the proportion of imported oil does affect US foreign policy tool in the Middle East by the use of. A high proportion of oil imports, the United States when faced with cross-border military conflict in the Middle East tends to take a higher intensity of a foreign policy tool; low proportion of imported oil, then take a low intensity intervention foreign policy tool. The present study is that in the US shale oil revolution to further reduce the importance of post-import dependence on oil, the Middle East, will provide the main source of US oil region is reduced. On the other hand, the Middle East and the United States in addition to providing an important source of oil, is also a center of global oil supplies, the US forces in the Middle East not only to America's energy security, but also related to the status of US global hegemony.