This research introduces a new value elicitation method for non-market valuation, referred to as the “quasi-double-bound (QDB)” method, applied to the case of barrierisland restoration in Mississippi. The objective of this thesis is to implement the QDB method in an actual stated-preference survey instrument and to test empirically whether the method elicits consistent responses and yields more efficient welfare estimates relative to the more-commonly used single-bound (SB) method. To test the QDB method, several models were estimated to derive a variety of welfare estimates for comparison to the estimates derived from the SB method. The QDB method introduced here results in a median willingness to pay (WTP) that was higher than the estimate of median WTP using the SB method in three of the five models estimated. The variances (i.e., confidence interval) of the QDB models were generally lower than those of the SB models.

No description available.

No description available.

No description available.

No description available.

No description available.

Probabilistic models and fuzzy set models describe different aspects of uncertainty. Probabilistic models primarily describe random variability in parameters. In engineering system safety, examples are variability in material properties, geometrical dimensions, or wind loads. In contrast, fuzzy set models of uncertainty primarily describe vagueness, such as vagueness in the definition of safety. When there is only limited information about variability, it is possible to use probabilistic models by making suitable assumptions on the statistics of the variability. However, it has been repeatedly shown that this can entail serious errors. Fuzzy set models, which require little data, appear to be well suited to use with designing for uncertainty, when little is known about the uncertainty. Several studies have compared fuzzy set and probabilistic methods in analysis of safety of systems under uncertainty. However, no study has compared the two approaches systematically as a function of the amount of available information. Such a comparison, in the context of design against failure, is the objective of this dissertation. First, the theoretical foundations of probability and possibility theories are compared. We show that a major difference between probability and possibility is in the axioms about the union of events. Because of this difference, probability and possibility calculi are fundamentally different and one cannot simulate possibility calculus using probabilistic models. We also show that possibility-based methods tend to be more conservative than probability-based methods in systems that fail only if many unfavorable events occur simultaneously. Based on these theoretical observations, two design problems are formulated to demonstrate the strength and weakness of probabilistic and fuzzy set methods. We consider the design of tuned damper system and the design and construction of domino stacks. These problems contain narrow failure zones in their uncertain variables and are tailored to demonstrate the pitfalls of probabilistic methods when little information is available for uncertain variables. Using these design problems we demonstrate that probabilistic methods are better than possibility-based methods if sufficient information is available. Just as importantly, we show possibility-based methods can be better if little information is available. Our conclusion is that when there is little information available about uncertainties, a hybrid method should be used to ensure a safe design. / Ph. D.

An efficient beam-column approach, using an improved step-by-step numerical method, is developed in the current research for studying the ultimate strength problems of stiffened panels with two load cases: 1) under longitudinal compression, and 2) under transverse compression. Chapter 2 presents an improved step-by-step numerical integration procedure based on (Chen and Liu, 1987) to calculate the ultimate strength of a beam-column under axial compression, end moments, lateral loads, and combined loads. A special procedure for three-span beam-columns is also developed with a special attention to usability for stiffened panels. A software package, ULTBEAM, is developed as an implementation of this method. The comparison of ULTBEAM with the commercial finite element package ABAQUS shows very good agreement. The improved beam-column method is first applied for the ultimate strength analysis of stiffened panel under longitudinal compression. The fine mesh elasto-plastic finite element ultimate strength analyses are carried out with 107 three-bay stiffened panels, covering a wide range of panel length, plate thickness, and stiffener sizes and proportions. The FE results show that the three-bay simply supported model is sufficiently general to apply to any panel with three or more bays. The FE results are then used to obtain a simple formula that corrects the beam-column result and gives good agreement for panel ultimate strength for all of the 107 panels. The formula is extremely simple, involving only one parameter: the product λΠorth2. Chapter 4 compares the predictions of the new beam-column formula and the orthotropic-based methods with the FE solutions for all 107 panels. It shows that the orthotropic plate theory cannot model the "crossover" panels adequately, whereas the beam-column method can predict the ultimate strength well for all of the 107 panels, including the "crossover" panels. The beam-column method is then applied for the ultimate strength analysis of stiffened panel under transverse compression, with or without pressure. The method is based on a further extension of the nonlinear beam-column theory presented in Chapter 2, and application of it to a continuous plate strip model to calculate the ultimate strength of subpanels. This method is evaluated by comparing the results with those obtained using ABAQUS, for several typical ship panels under various pressures. / Ph. D.

The far-field underwater explosion (UNDEX) problem is a complicated problem dominated by two phenomena: the shock wave traveling through the fluid and the cavitation in the fluid. Both of these phenomena have a significant effect on the loading of ship structures subjected to UNDEX. An approach to numerically modeling these effects in the fluid and coupling to a structural model is using cavitating acoustic finite elements (CAFE) and more recently cavitating acoustic spectral elements (CASE). The use of spectral elements in CASE has shown to offer the greater accuracy and reduced computational expense when compared to traditional finite elements. However, spectral elements also increase spurious oscillations in both the fluid and structural response. This dissertation investigates the application of CAFE, CASE, and a possible improvement to CAFE in the form of a finite element flux-corrected transport algorithm, to the far-field UNDEX problem by solving a set of simplified UNDEX problems. Specifically we examine the effect of increased oscillations on structural response and the effect of errors in cavitation capture on the structural response which have not been thoroughly explored in previous work. The main contributions of this work are a demonstration of the problem dependency of increased oscillations in the structural response when applying the CASE methodology, the demonstration of how the sensitivity of errors in the structural response changes with changes in the structural model, a detailed explanation of how error in cavitation capture influences the structural response, and a demonstration of the need to accurately capture the shape and magnitude of cavitation regions in the fluid in order to obtain accurate structural response results. / Ph. D.

A wide range of applications involve interface problems. In most of the cases, mathematical modeling of these interface problems leads to partial differential equations with non-smooth or discontinuous inputs and solutions, especially across material interfaces. Different numerical methods have been developed to solve these kinds of problems and handle the non-smooth behavior of the input data and/or the solution across the interface. The main focus of our work is the immersed finite element method to obtain optimal numerical solutions for interface problems. In this thesis, we present piecewise quadratic immersed finite element (IFE) spaces that are used with an immersed finite element (IFE) method with interior penalty (IP) for solving two-dimensional second-order elliptic interface problems without requiring the mesh to be aligned with the material interfaces. An analysis of the constructed IFE spaces and their dimensions is presented. Shape functions of Lagrange and hierarchical types are constructed for these spaces, and a proof for the existence is established. The interpolation errors in the proposed piecewise quadratic spaces yield optimal <i>O</i>(h³) and <i>O</i>(h²) convergence rates, respectively, in the L² and broken H¹ norms under mesh refinement. Furthermore, numerical results are presented to validate our theory and show the optimality of our quadratic IFE method. Our approach in this thesis is, first, to establish a theory for the simplified case of a linear interface. After that, we extend the framework to quadratic interfaces. We, then, describe a general procedure for handling arbitrary interfaces occurring in real physical practical applications and present computational examples showing the optimality of the proposed method. Furthermore, we investigate a general procedure for extending our quadratic IFE spaces to <i>p</i>-th degree and construct hierarchical shape functions for <i>p</i>=3. / Ph. D.