To escape from national poverty is the principal goal of the Developing Countries. A large number of current national statements of development indicate a growing awareness of the need to pursue plans that are increasingly sensitive to socioeconomic problems. The development of industrial activity is most likely to supply the dynamics and momentum to mobilise the necessary resources to start this escape from poverty. My approach to and proposals for more effective industrial planning, are based on an analysis of the relevant literature, and the comparison and evaluation of a considerable number of national and industrial plans. Part I deals with the ever-increasing gap between the GNP per capita of the Developed and the Developing Countries during the last 100 years. I show that this gap has widened more rapidly between the 1960's and the 1970's. The literature on the industrialisation efforts since the late 1950's is surveyed and the experience gained is assessed. In this way, the major constraints shared by almost all Developing Countries, although varying in background, starting-point and social aspiration, are scrutinized. Part II provides an outline of situations and decisions which directly affect the process of industrialisation in the majority of Developing Countries, while the planning process is broken down into its main elements. Each element is then discussed in accordance with its practical consequences, with the emphasis on overcoming observed difficulties and avoiding mistakes. In attacking the most common issues, I am guided by two principles: firstly, that these situations and issues are indeed the most important and, secondly, that by adequate planning, better practical results can be obtained - provided that the planning principles and their application are kept clear and simple. Planning is not only the design of a desired future, but it means, in its proper sense, taking decisions - and following them up - in order to bring this desired future about. This thesis suggests, therefore, a pragmatic approach which is reinforced by my practical experience over several years in a variety of Developing Countries, where I prepared industrial development plans and industrial studies.

I describe a series of seven experiments investigating how undergraduate students' comprehension of 2x2 `interaction' bar and line graphs widely used to present data from two-way factorial research designs is affected by both the graph format and the nature of the interaction with them. The first four experiments investigate how different Gestalt principles of perceptual organization operate in the two graph formats and demonstrate the effects of these principles (both positive and negative) on graph comprehension. In particular, Gestalt principles are shown to hinder significantly students’ comprehension of data presented in line graphs compared to bar graphs and that the patterns of errors displayed by students are systematic. The analysis also informs the development of two modified line graphs, one of which improves data interpretation significantly to the level of the bar graphs. The final three experiments investigate more deeply how the processes involved in different types of interaction with graphs affect users’ comprehension of the data depicted. In the first four experiments, participants attempted to understand the graphs while thinking aloud. However, a subsequent study (Experiment 5) demonstrated that writing an interpretation produced significantly higher levels of comprehension for line graphs than when thinking aloud. The final two experiments sought to identify the cause of this difference by isolating demands specific to the verbal protocol condition. The results of this research show that (a) in certain circumstances the Gestalt principles of perceptual organization that operate in different graph formats can significantly affect the interpretation of data depicted in them but that (b) these effects can be attenuated by the nature of the interaction. The implications of this research are that identifying an appropriate method of interaction as well as ensuring appropriate display design ensures that the majority of users will be able to interpret these graphs appropriately and so recommendations can be made for graph use in educational settings.

This thesis presents an analysis of the dynamic process of economic growth, national welfare and the HIV/AIDS epidemic. An assessment of the methodological designs of applied growth research is undertaken in order to polarise the limitations associated with cross-sectional growth regressions. The cross-country cross- sectional methodology that has been the dominant feature of empirical growth analysis may suffer from an endogeneity and omitted variable bias. A panel data approach is adopted in order to address the econometric issues associated with cross-sectional study designs. To highlight the discrepancies between theory and empirics, a rudimentary description of the Solow model is offered. Extensions of the Solow paradigm are also discussed and form the basis of the theoretical foundations of the research. The relationship between health and economic growth within the existing literature has considered the consequences of poor population health in determining national income levels. Disease-specific effects have been included in growth regressions to capture the output losses associated with the widespread reduction in human capabilities. This thesis contributes to the existing literature by testing the empirical relationship between economic growth and the HIV/AIDS epidemic for a broad cross-section of countries. Previous empirical studies have not presented a unified account of the epidemic's effects in determining cross- country productivity differentials. The way in which the epidemic might impede economic prosperity is considered by drawing upon the existing literature. The strengths and limitations of previous study estimates are considered in relation to the study design. A more robust empirical estimator for growth regressions is proposed in the form of a system Generalised Method of Moments estimator. The research extends on previous study estimates by considering the epidemic's effect across the conditional quantiles of the growth distribution. A central prediction of the neoclassical growth paradigm relates to the convergence hypothesis in which poorer economies are considered to achieve faster growth rates. By drawing upon the distributional changes in national income over time for the entire cross-section of countries, this thesis will assess the potential barriers that may violate the theoretical predictions of the convergence hypothesis. An empirical assessment of the role of convergence clubs, mortality and poverty traps will be presented through an analysis of the changes in health and income inequality over time. The distributional shifts that have occurred over the period under analysis consider the consequences of growth as a measure of national welfare.

The main questions of this thesis are how a period of in utero malnutrition can impact the health of young children and their later development, and how job promotions can affect health. In the first chapter I analyse to what extent the South-East Asian financial crisis affected the height of Indonesian children who had in utero exposure to the crisis. I find that they are significantly shorter than children who were exposed at later ages. There is a large difference in effect for urban and rural children. This finding helps attribute the detrimental health effects to the crisis and not other events which occurred during the period of analysis. The second chapter exploits the exogenous shock of the crisis to analyse how early childhood height causes later cognitive development. I argue that this question should be analysed using instrumental variables. The results show a large and significant effect of early childhood height on cognitive ability and the use of instrumental variables changes the results significantly compared to OLS with or without fixed effects. Lastly, I analyse how on the job promotions of British civil servants affect health. In a cross-section, the direction of causality is almost certainly two-way. I argue that the use of individual fixed effects will alleviate this concern. The results show a large, positive effect of a job promotion on health in the subsequent survey phase.

One of important issues of the policymakers is to improve output and/or productivity growth associated with information and communication technology (ICT) adoption, where total factor productivity (TFP) growth related with ICT in the 1990s appeared in the US but not in the UK (Jorgenson and Stiroh, 2000; Oliner and Sichel, 2000). The general agreement is that ICT can raise output and/or productivity growth via an increase in productivity growth in the ICT-producing sectors due to rapid technological progress, through capital deepening driven by high levels of investment in ICT equipments, and via increases in efficiency in ICT-using sectors that successfully adopt this new technology by ICT spillover effects (David, 1990). Due to the small size of ICT-producing industries and relatively low level of ICT investments in the UK (Colecchia and Schreyer, 2001; Daveri, 2002; Vijselaar and Albers, 2002), the utilization of ICT spillover effects was crucial to improving output and/or productivity growth for the UK. However, in most of the previous studies, while many concluded ICT spillover effects existed in the US, they had mixed results as to whether ICT spillover effects existed in the UK (Schreyer, 2000; Basu et al., 2003; Inklaar et al., 2005; Jorgenson et al., 2005). The objective of this thesis is to contribute to the existing literature by investigating the existence of ICT spillover effects in the US and the UK and exploring the reasons for the different effects between them. This thesis argues that the mixed findings in the previous studies are due to the ignorance of the General-purpose technology (GPT) theory and weakness in methodology. Thus, the first step is to build a new framework of measuring ICT spillover effects to solve the problems from the existing studies. The main ignorance of the GPT theory is the lack of guidance for the proxy of co-invention related to ICT investments and for the length of lag. The new framework no longer has this ignorance because it uses efficiency as a proxy of co-invention and captures the length of lag by years with negative return on ICT capital. The methodology employed in the previous studies was inappropriate mainly because of the small sample size taken in the ICT study, the two-stage approach used to explore the effect of the environmental variables on efficiency and the linear and concavity assumptions on the frontiers without taking account of ICT as a GPT. The new framework uses Bayesian technique, one-stage approach and non-parametric frontiers to avoid these three drawbacks. In addition, the new framework introduces the persistent level of inefficiency, using a first-order autoregressive (i.e. AR(1)) structure of inefficiency itself, as one of factors that influence ICT spillover effects. In order to model the new framework which takes into account the non-parametric frontiers for capturing negative return of ICT capital, an AR(1) structure of inefficiency, the small sample size and factors that influence ICT spillover effects, this thesis has developed two non-parametric dynamic stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) models with an AR(1) structure and performed the analysis via Bayesian inference. The first model was a semi-parametric dynamic stochastic frontier with a time-variant non-parametric frontier at the basic level along with a time-invariant linear function for the technical inefficiency at the higher-level. The second model relaxed the time-invariant linear functional form for technical inefficiency at the higher level. The results of the new framework showed strong ICT spillover effects in the US with a lag of about 6-8 years during 1982-83 to 1988-89, while relatively weaker ICT spillover effects in the UK. This can be evidenced by the fact that the UK has been in the process of organizational adjustment up to 2000 due to a longer lag. Thus, in the 1990s, there was a lack of TFP growth in the UK. Related to the different ICT spillover effects between the US and the UK, the results from the new framework suggested that the various persistent levels of inefficiency between the two countries was important, apart from the different levels of ICT investment between them mentioned in the previous studies (Inklaar, O Mahony and Timmer, 2003). JEL Classifications: C51, E13, O30, O33

This thesis contributes to the empirical literature about how uncertainty affects firm-level investment behavior and capital accumulation using a structural econometric approach. Chapter 2 surveys the literature and highlights that there are two key channels through which uncertainty may affect investment decisions. One reflects the non-linearity of operating profits in stochastic demand or productivity parameters, summarized as the Hartman-Abel-Caballero (HAC) effect. Another reflects frictions in capital adjustment, summarized by different forms of capital adjustment costs: partial irreversibility, a fixed cost of undertaking any investment and quadratic adjustment costs. Chapter 3 presents simulation evidence about the effects of uncertainty on investment dynamics and capital accumulation through different forms of adjustment costs. Using the Method of Simulated Moments, Chapters 4 and 5 estimate fully parametric structural investment models, for panels of Brazilian and UK manufacturing firms, respectively. Chapter 4 investigates the effects of reducing capital adjustment costs. Counterfactual simulations indicate that investment would be much more responsive to new information about profitability if firms in Brazil faced a lower level of adjustment costs. A lower level of adjustment costs would also induce firms to operate with substantially higher capital stocks. Both these effects are mainly due to the importance of the estimated quadratic adjustment costs. Chapter 5 then investigates the effects of changing the level of uncertainty. The estimated investment models predict a small effect of uncertainty on investment dynamics in the short-run, and a negative and potentially large effect of uncertainty on capital accumulation in the long-run. The long-run effect of uncertainty operates through the negative effect of quadratic adjustment costs in the baseline model, or through a richer combination of effects in an extended model that allows discount rates to vary with the level of uncertainty.

Many systems studied in the biological, physical, and social sciences are composed of multiple interacting components. Often the number of components and interactions is so large that attaining an understanding of the system necessitates some form of simplication. A common representation that captures the key connection patterns is a network in which the nodes correspond to system components and the edges represent interactions. In this thesis we use network techniques and more traditional clustering methods to coarse-grain systems composed of many interacting components and to identify the most important interactions. This thesis focuses on two main themes: the analysis of financial systems and the study of network communities, an important mesoscopic feature of many networks. In the first part of the thesis, we discuss some of the issues associated with the analysis of financial data and investigate the potential for risk-free profit in the foreign exchange market. We then use principal component analysis (PCA) to identify common features in the correlation structure of different financial markets. In the second part of the thesis, we focus on network communities. We investigate the evolving structure of foreign exchange (FX) market correlations by representing the correlations as time-dependent networks and investigating the evolution of network communities. We employ a node-centric approach that allows us to track the effects of the community evolution on the functional roles of individual nodes and uncovers major trading changes that occurred in the market. Finally, we consider the community structure of networks from a wide variety of different disciplines. We introduce a framework for comparing network communities and use this technique to identify networks with similar mesoscopic structures. Based on this similarity, we create taxonomies of a large set of networks from different fields and individual families of networks from the same field.

This thesis consists of three chapters on post-reform Chinese business cycles and alternative methods for solving non-linear rational expectations models. Using quarterly data for the period 1980-2009, Chapter 1 examines the effects of aggregate demand and supply shocks on aggregate fluctuations in China. It further decomposes demand shocks into money supply, money demand and fiscal shocks as in the IS-LM-PC model by applying both long- and short-run restrictions in the context of the structural VAR proposed by Galí (1992). The results show that the estimated impulse responses, in terms of the supply and the three demand shocks, match well with the predictions of the theory. However, as the forecast error variance decompositions show, supply shocks are the main source of fluctuations, accounting for about 89% of output variations in the short-run. Given the nature of this transition economy, this may indicate that there are still institutional obstacles due to incomplete economic reform which prevents the market mechanism from working fully. Despite the overall dominance of supply shocks, the historical decomposition of the five cycles in output between 1983 and 2009 detects important roles played by various demand shocks in some sub-periods. The above results are robust to alternative choices of data for money and interest rate. In Chapter 2, an RBC model with utility generating government consumption and productive public capital is calibrated to annual Chinese data for the post-reform period 1978-2006. The main findings are: (i) the model generates a reasonable overall account of the business cycles in the Chinese economy; (ii) TFP shocks mainly contribute to the good fit of the model, whilst the two fiscal policy shocks help to further improve the model's performance; (iii) our results are robust to alternative calibrations such as high and low capital shares, weights of components in utility and constant return to scale aggregate production function in public capital; and (iv) the shock to the ratio of government consumption to output delivers a dominant negative wealth effect, whilst the shock to the ratio of government investment to output can generate significant positive wealth effects in both the short- and long-run. The third chapter solves the benchmark New Keynesian model using the log-linearization method, second order approximation and the parameterized expectations algorithm (PEA). The results show that the three solution methods display varying degrees of quantitative differences in simulated population moments, distributions, policy functions and impulse response functions. In particular, the generated price dispersions are significantly different across solution methods. The accuracy evaluations in terms of Judd's criteria and Marcet's statistical test show that the PEA performs better than the other two methods, particularly when solving the price-adjustment equation. This result is robust to a number of alternative calibrations.

Along the process of economic development, marriage patterns have gradually changed. Nonetheless, we still observe contrasting differences across regions. This thesis first examines those differences, and questions what determines those marriage patterns. The answer to this will be the economic role of women within a society. In this regard, we explore the relationship between gender differences in labour participation and marital outcomes across regions and over time. To do so, we use ethnographic evidence and country-decade data. Moreover, we reconcile distinctive literatures in an attempt to answer our main research question. The focus of the thesis lies within two specific issues regarding marriage patterns: (i) marital systems, namely polygyny and monogamy, and (ii) the spousal age gap. First, we examine the relationship between female labour participation and polygynous unions. Then, we concentrate on monogamy to explore the spousal age gap. In addition, we discuss our main findings and its implications for the long run. Whether societies have followed a similar path but at different speeds throughout history is our last topic of discussion.

This thesis brings together three independent empirical essays which focus on the determinants of individual attitudes towards immigration and the determinants of migrant flows from developing countries to developed countries. The first essay looks at what happens to migrant flows from poor countries as they experience economic development. It examines the relationship between economic development in poor migrant-sending countries and migrant flows from those countries to developed countries, using the UK as a case study. The analysis in this essay relies on UK immigration data from 1973-2005 for 48 developing countries in Africa, Asia and Central and South America. The conclusion from this essay is that there is an inverse If-shape relationship between economic development and the migrant flows from developing countries to the UK, though this relationship is sensitive to aggregation of countries The second essay undertakes a comparative empirical analysis of the relative importance of the impact of economic and cultural concerns on individual attitudes towards immigration. Using data from the fourth round of the European Social Survey the study shows that there is no robust evidence to support the widely held view that economic concerns are more important than cultural concerns in shaping individual attitudes towards immigration. In the third essay a series of analyses are undertaken: first, to examine the extent to which attitudes towards immigration are determined by individual concerns about how immigration affects the welfare state; and second, to evaluate the individual characteristics that shape their subjective views regarding the effects of immigrants on the welfare state. With evidence based on the European Social Survey, the study finds that welfare state concerns are positive and robust determinants of individual attitudes towards predominantly unskilled immigration. It also finds that, older retired individuals are more likely than young or middle-aged individuals to have pessimistic views regarding the effects of immigrants on the welfare state. Hence they are also more likely to oppose immigration. By contrast, skilled individuals are more likely to have optimistic views and hence more likely to have pro-immigration attitudes than unskilled individuals.