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Modern energy services such as electricity offer social, economic and health benefits, particularly for rural households who depend wholly and solely on traditional fuels. However, one of the impediments faced by rural households in connecting to these services is the high cost of connection. Once a household is electrified by the grid, another problem emerges which is service reliability from the grid-option. Some examples of such reliability problems are: high frequency of outages and their substantial duration. Hence, it is important to consider both the connection costs for nonelectrified households and service reliability for those who are already electrified. In this vein, this research aims to explore the most efficient pathways to achieve higher levels of electricity connection and greater reliability, focusing on rural households in Kenya. To achieve this, a face-to-face household survey consisting of 200 nonelectrified and 202 electrified households was conducted in Kisumu district in August 2007. Two hypothetical stated preference methods are employed, these being a contingent valuation approach for nonelectrified households and a choice experiment for electrified households. The empirical model used for the contingent valuation includes a double bounded logit, whereas for choice experiment a mixed logit is applied. In the case of contingent valuation, the double bounded logit is preferable due to the double bounded question format used in the household survey. For the choice experiment, the mixed logit is applied owing to the preference heterogeneity which was found among respondents with regards to the reliability of electricity services. The results from the double bounded logit model revealed that among nonelectrified households the willingness to pay for two electricity sources, namely grid and photovoltaic systems, differed. Respondents were willing to pay more for grid electricity than a solar photovoltaic system. Moreover, those who were older and had lived longer in the area were less inclined to pay for electricity connection, whereas those who had higher incomes and those interested in using electricity for home business purposes, were found to be more in favour of connection to electricity services than those exhibiting the converse xi characteristics. Question order effect was also investigated for the contingent valuation method, and it emerged that the overall mean/median willingness to pay was unaffected by the product and payment effects. In addition, monthly payments were found to be more popular than lump sum for connection. The mixed logit estimation for choice experiment provided insights into respondents’ heterogeneity with regards to the socio-economic and demographic variables. It emerged that those who were: unemployed, older and lived longer in the area, were less likely than their counterparts to pay in excess of their monthly electricity bill to reduce outages. Moreover, those who had a larger family, were engaged in farming and/or had a bank account were willing to pay more for better service reliability. The findings also demonstrated that for both grid and solar photovoltaic systems households preferred monthly payments to one time lump sum. Moreover, it was found that a much higher proportion of households would be able to undertake payments by instalments. In light of this, this researcher posits that policy makers should extend financial schemes to take into account the possibility of households paying by instalments and devise mechanisms through which payback periods can be prolonged. The results of this research indicate that if photovoltaic electricity connection were subsidized by one third by the Government of Kenya, 70% of the households would be able to afford to be connected. With regards to the quality of service reliability, this research has identified the importance of assessing the influence that different socio-economic and demographic characteristics play in determining preferences. That is to say, once those characteristics which are favourable for greater reliability are known, policy makers should target these groups by developing service differentiation to accommodate different household preferences. This could prove very difficult as shown by the case of India where irrigated farmers were provided a preferential tariff among other electrified groups. However, this researcher would contend that this procedure would be preferable to that of having no programme at all. In conclusion, all these findings are useful for increasing rural electrification and improving the quality of electricity service for rural households in developing countries. This would lead to a decreased dependency of such populations on traditional fuels that have adverse effect on their socio-economic environment and their health and well-being.

No description available.

No description available.

No description available.

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Global climate change is one of the greatest challenges of the twenty-first century. Rising temperatures and alteration of weather patterns are anticipated to result from increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, caused, in part, by the use of fossil fuels for electricity generation. Climate change is predicted to have major impacts on many aspects of human society from agriculture to water supply. The process of limiting the extent of climatic change began with the Kyoto Protocol, committing industrialised nations to modest cuts in their emissions. To achieve these and in the longer term, much greater cuts, electricity production must reduce its reliance on fossil fuels, by the increased use of renewable resources. Hydropower is currently the only major renewable source contributing to energy supply, and its future contribution is anticipated to increase significantly. However, the successful expansion of hydropower is dependent on the availability of the resource and the perceptions of those financing it. Increased evaporation, as a result of higher temperatures, together with changes in precipitation patterns may alter the timing and magnitude of river flows. This will affect the ability of hydropower stations to harness the resource, and may result in reduced energy production, implying lower revenues and poorer financial returns. The continuing liberalisation of the electricity industry implies that, increasingly, profitability and the level of risk will drive investment decision-making. As such, investors will be concerned with processes, such as climatic change, that have the potential to alter the balance of risk and reward. This thesis describes a methodology to assess the potential impact of climatic change on hydropower investment, and details the implementation of a technique for quantifying changes in profitability and risk. A case study is presented as an illustration, the results of which are analysed with respect to the implications for future provision of hydropower, as well as our ability to limit the extent of climatic change.

National Oil Companies ("NOCs") play an important role in a country's petroleum industry. Their relationship with their government is much more complicated than those between commercial oil companies and their shareholders due to the government's multi-dimensional role as a shareholder, resource owner, and regulator. As a result, NOCs usually take non-commercial responsibilities and their governments often employ more proactive measures to intervene. Driven by a wide range of factors, the constant revision of their relationship is a crucial component of the petroleum sector reform.The aim of the thesis is to analyse the effectiveness of NOC reform in achieving respective objectives (both commercial and non-commercial) of governments, and the major factors contributing to that effectiveness or lack of it. The thesis looks at NOC reform to the regulatory framework, the industrial structure, the pricing and distribution system, and the fiscal and financial regimes. It examines the effectiveness of reforms by evaluating the effectiveness of the relationship between governments and NOCs, using the Principal and Agent theory. A case study approach and historical analysis approach are used in analysing NOC reforms in China during the years between 1949 and 2006.The thesis concludes that the regulatory capacity of government together with its social concerns in reforming oil pricing system are two major factors, which set the pace of NOC reform and decide the effectiveness of it. It therefore shows that NOC reform is often a long term process, as the build up of the regulatory capacity takes years or even decades, as demonstrated in the case of China. The thesis also developed a new analytical framework that can be used to study general NOC reforms in countries other than China.

This research proposes a "Dynamic Energy Systems" (DES) paradigm- a Decision Support Systems Framework using a System Thinking (ST) and System Dynamics (SD) approach for sustainable energy planning in a Developing Economy (DE) using developing Botswana economy as a case reference. Many of the DE is currently undergoing dramatic changes in socio-economic policies such liberalisation of the energy markets, financing of energy projects and the incorporation of previously grounded externalities such as the environmental implications of energy projects. The research begins by reviewing the literature on the underlying dynamics of sustainable energy development (SED) in the DE. It further examines the inherent limitations of traditional planning tools such as optimisation, econometric and general simulation models for energy planning and policy formulation in DE. It argued that the advocated strength of optimisation tools is significantly impaired in the DE where economic, social and environmental objectives are multidimensional, complex and hence seldom given a clearer definition. Traditional energy planning tools are inappropriate in DE as they focuses on the present decision without identifying how past policies created the present complexities. This research also argued that traditional modelling approach fail to demonstrate the policies that would guide future decisions. Further, lack of reliable data and the absolute determination of the objective function in many DE undermines the suitability of both econometric and optimisation models. Given the inherent systems structure, current trends and future forecasts in the DE, there are complex implications that need addressing in the applications of traditional planning tools to sustainable energy planning. The unsuitability of traditional tools to DE is rooted in the welldocumented socio-economic, political and technological differences, as compared to those of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) nations.The past energy development trends witnessed in the OECD nations contradict the notion of SED. It is therefore paramount that energy planners and their advisers in DE integrate these complexities in the applications of traditional planning models. Hence, DE requires a new paradigm for SED. DES modelling and methodological approach facilitates the design of policy rules that govern complex decision-making. It demonstrates how past policies created the current crises. The use of DES enables the modelling of complex energy issues, and enhances understanding of the dominant system characteristics that causes energy systems instability in the DE. This research maintains that the major impediments to SED in the DE are appropriate technology; social organisation; environmental (energy) resources and investment directions. The proposed methodology focuses on analyses of the dynamic forces that impinge on energy systems and seeks to improve the decision making process. This research fills an important gap in the literature by demonstrating the merits of DES as a framework that permits focusing on the holistic structure identifiable within an energy system in the DE. The research also identifies the underlying differences of sustainable energy planning in DE as compared to those of the OECD nations.

Habitat destruction is the single biggest threat to biodiversity. Despite significant research efforts, the response of biodiversity to human activities remains difficult to' predict. This thesis analyses the responses of bird and tree assemblages to land-use intensification on the island of Sao Tome (Democratic Republic of Sao Tome and Principe), focusing on the endemic species. Global research effort on island endemic birds is very biased; over half of the research is concentrated in less than 5% of the species. Although Sao Tome has received very little research, many other endemic-rich islands have received even less. Endemic birds were associated with less intensive land-uses, although dominant across all land-uses and rather resilient to intensification. The number and abundance of non-endemic birds increased sharply with intensification; these were nearly absent in old-growth forest and they almost became dominant in non-forested land -uses. In terms of vegetation characteristics, the shift towards an endemic-depleted bird assemblage was most strongly linked to reduced canopy cover. This shift was also facilitated by degraded landscape contexts, and it is likely that the dominance of endemic birds in Sao Tome is linked to the island's high proportion of forest cover. Endemic trees overall were scarce and almost entirely restricted to forests. The lack of information surrounding the history of the island's flora does not allow clarification of whether this paucity is natural or a result of human interference.