This thesis is concerned with the history of electricity generation costs, how they have changed over time, and the accuracy of forecasts of future costs. These costs are a critical input to policy, yet both estimates and forecasts have frequently proved to be wrong or have changed dramatically over relatively short timescales. The thesis presents evidence from three technology case studies (offshore wind, nuclear power and solar PV), supported by a review of the range of cost measures used in the economic, business and policy spheres, and the methodologies used to understand the factors that bear upon cost trajectories and approaches to forecasting future costs. Drawing upon the evidence from the case studies, the thesis examines how cost forecasts have changed over time, the (frequently wide) range of forecasts, the sources of errors, and how policy has responded to uncertainty and changes in both cost estimates and forecasts. The findings address the limitations of commonly used cost metrics, challenge assumptions that costs will necessarily fall, discuss the meaning of regulatory certainty in the face of uncertain future costs, and emphasise the importance of context (why estimates are commissioned, and by whom, and also who they are undertaken by). The evidence suggests that the co-presentation and use of estimates and forecasts for technologies with very different technical and financial characteristics implies significantly more comparability between them than is wise, and can convey the message that the underlying uncertainties are similar, when in fact the reasons may be fundamentally different in character. This highlights how important an understanding of technology characteristics is when deriving estimates and forecasts, not simply because those characteristics bear upon the numerical values of the results, but because of the influence they have on the nature of the uncertainty of those results.

Under REDD+, the UNFCCC's financial tool for the preservation of the world's tropical forests, the necessity to monitor performance as well as involve local people is made clear in the policy documentation. Community Monitoring Reporting and Verification (CMRV) combines these two policy needs to create a concept that delegates the responsibility of ground-level monitoring to local communities. This is a deeply complicated model to implement, balancing local, national, and international needs, incorporating divergent stakeholder opinions, as well as livelihood issues, political dynamics, natural resource management and systemic change. Within this field, I identified three research areas, namely how CMRV fits into the REDD+ MRV policy context, how local people might engage with social, or 'wellbeing' monitoring, and the sustainability of CMRV as a local and national institution. There are only a handful of CMRV projects occurring throughout the world, building on the foundations created by locally-based monitoring, and I have been involved in facilitating CMRV in the North Rupununi region of Guyana with traditional Makushi Amerindian communities. This provides the study site for a number of the research chapters. The thesis starts by reviewing how CMRV might synergise with REDD+, particularly looking at the pros and cons of using local people instead of professional scientists for monitoring tasks. The majority opinions lean towards local people being well positioned and capable to fulfil this role, while the additional financial, cultural and empowerment benefits make this approach attractive rather than simply viable. It then moves on to looking more deeply at the previously unexplored area of locally-based social monitoring, or 'wellbeing' monitoring. In Guyana, I explored the similarities between external and local formulations of the wellbeing concept and its measurement, finding them to be not too dissimilar. However, when investigating how to implement wellbeing monitoring, practitioners face some complex trade-offs, such as subjective vs. objective measures, or internal vs. external validity, and need to be wary of simple quantification. The final analyses look more generally at CMRV, starting from the observation that after two years of operation, the project in Guyana can neither be said to be particularly empowering or sustainable. The barriers to local participation and associated power dynamics were explored, identifying why the devolution of responsibilities has been lower than expected. Lastly a Systems Thinking approach was taken to reveal counter-intuitive patterns and architectural flaws in the CMRV institutional framework that are leading to inherent unsustainability. The thesis concludes by looking at three cross-cutting themes: paternalism; hastiness in project work; and balancing different opinions. Drawing from my own journey, bringing personal values (such as of humility, patience and empathy) to bear in these institutional difficulties is a strong approach to navigating CMRV towards betterment. I finish by highlighting the most significant practical output from this work: a decision-making framework that proportions a project's impact on stakeholder wellbeing with their decision-making power.

This thesis presents a new framework that enables a better integrated and industry-wide approach to the sustainable design and operation of swimming pools in the UK. The framework addresses current issues in the swimming industry by proposing a restructuring of the regulatory and guidance structure to make use of existing pieces of UK legislation. A combination of a new approved code of practice for swimming pools incorporating risk-based assessments and changes to existing approved documents for building efficiency is proposed as an effective method of engaging all stakeholders. The industrial setting of the research enabled a practical evaluation of the current UK guidance and regulation. The need for additional performance indicators to improve the management of compliance with recommendations is identified. The Water Exchange Deficit is proposed as a new performance indicator to support the water management of a facility. In addition, the relationship between activity type and the impact on water quality is examined and discussed. An enhanced methodology for the prediction of the water demand of a facility has also been generated. This methodology incorporates newly published findings in relation to the nature of bather contamination and operational variables relating to evaporation rates and chemical dosing. In addition to the contributions above, the modelling of pool hydraulics was also undertaken to assess operational consequences of the existing implementation of industry guidance. A fundamental conflict was identified between the two key recommendations that should be adopted in relation to the design of pool hydraulics. Computational fluid dynamics and small-scale physical modelling approaches were used to show that the use of well-mixed hydraulics is effective at distributing chemicals but can also potentially increase the risk of exposure to disinfectant-resistant pathogens. The availability of new treatment technologies may present the opportunity for wholesale changes to the overall strategy of pool water treatment.

Production and consumption patterns in both industrialised and developing countries are continuing to cause increases in waste production and environmental impacts and current regulatory controls are failing in achieving wholesale material change in the nature of products and the way in which they are used. Therefore, other mechanisms must be sought to promote more sustainable product systems with regulation as the primary driver. Building legislation on a life cycle approach as part of a circular economy is radical and novel given that most environmental impacts are currently regulated on a vertical basis where legislation is linked to the process rather than the product. This thesis argues that it is necessary to establish an effective regulatory approach (a codex for the law relating to things - a codex rerum) both to ensure integration of environmental questions into every aspect of product development and to achieve harmonisation and standardisation leading to an efficient and effective approach to regulation. Regulation needs to be primaly with other instruments available to complement it and it needs to start with government policy and a government determination to achieve a framework in which environmental measures are seen as an integral and indispensable part of the economy in order to advance technological development and generate a thriving market for such developments. The ultimate concern is to achieve a system which is entirely harmonised with the needs of the environment; where an effective synthesis of economic, social and environmental factors is reflected in the means and mam1er of production, product life management and the behavioural aspects of consumption. This thesis proposes a fundamentally different legislative approach which addresses all phases of the life cycle from all dimensions - integrating process and product controls - and which would enable and encourage innovation, particularly in response to environmental needs.

Mineral resources are essential to the functioning and wellbeing of human societies. There is mounting concern, however, about the environmental degradation and social impacts typically resulting from mineral extraction. As a result, the mining industry is increasingly embracing the sustainability agenda, that is, pursuing development which ostensibly balances economic, social and environmental interests. In recent years, escalating anxiety over climate change in particular has propelled forest conservation to the top of the sustainability agenda which, in the case of mining, has increased attention on the loss of forest cover associated with activities, the success of reclamation and the manifold social conflicts often associated with resource-use. The hegemonic neoliberal approach to environmental governance has led to a burgeoning of strategies to manage forests using carbon finance as a conduit for investment. Although these schemes purportedly facilitate the mitigation of carbon emissions on a global scale while simultaneously delivering economic benefits to poor local communities, there is apprehension regarding the prospect of projects being implemented in contexts in which the dynamics of resource-use are not adequately understood. Cross-sectoral issues are among the concerns which have yet to receive sufficient attention. The purpose of this thesis is to broaden understanding of the interactions between the poorly articulated and understood relationship between mining, forests, climate change and development. Using the case of Ghana, where conflicts and trade-offs between mining and forests proliferate, an interdisciplinary and exploratory approach is taken to investigate the impact of mining on forest carbon stocks, survey the perspectives and influence of key stakeholders on mining-forest conflicts, and determine how these cross-sectoral issues are governed. Findings reveal that public and policy discourse on mining in forest areas focuses on formal activities in forest reserves and the relative success of reclamation. An examination of carbon stocks under different land-uses shows that reclamation does not completely restore carbon stocks to levels found in forests, but that it can restore approximately 10% of carbon on decadal timescales. This underscores the limitations of pursuing a purely technocratic approach to policy-making: although science is a necessary component of sound governance it is it not sufficient per se. The results further demonstrate the potential for carbon-finance to support reclamation activities in both the large- and small-scale mining sectors.

Increasing environmental regulation has resulted in mining companies monitoring levels of toxic trace elements in the environment. However, little research has been done to identify the sources of such elements as natural or manmade. Whilst the mining industry has traditionally used hydrogeochemical baselines for exploration, this study has evaluated the use of such baselines for environmental assessments of drainage systems, particularly the identification and quantification of natural and anthropogenic sources. The results are discussed in the context of water quality regulation and guideline values. The research generated the first systematic regional geochemical baseline of Central Chile including the classic Andean copper mineral province and the Andina-Los Bronces mining district. The study area included three major catchments flowing from the Andean Cordillera into inhabited valleys, with the potential for contamination from agriculture and the urban environment. Waters were sampled at a density of 1 per 100 sq. km. over 20000 sq. km. in five seasons over three years. Multi-element chemistry and stable isotopes were determined. The geochemical baseline was prepared using high quality geochemical data. The distribution patterns of the anomalously high geochemistry showed strong relationships with bedrock geology, including the presence of evaporites, sulphide mineralisation and hydrothermally altered rocks (differentiated using isotopes in sulphate). High concentrations of nitrate and phosphate were identified in agricultural areas reflecting pollution from fertilisers and sewage (distinguished using isotopes in nitrate). Areas affected by fertilisers and sewage were significantly greater than those affected by mining. Waters draining unmined Cu-mineralisation had much higher Cu and Ni levels and lower pH than Cu-mine area waters. Most regional geochemistry was below international guidelines and Chilean regulatory levels and where elevated it reflected natural sources and seasonal variations. The study demonstrates that geochemical baselines have considerable potential for distinguishing between natural and anthropogenic pollutant sources in environmental assessments.

No description available.

Two key cultural concepts, 'nation’ and ‘nature’, have shaped the British debate on genetic modification (GM). The thesis uses focus groups, semi-structured interviews and newspaper analysis to explore how the concepts of nation and nature are used at different moments during the process of communication. It examines media influence within the GM debate and also considers other resources that audiences draw upon when talking about GM. The study found that, although most focus group participants reproduced dominant media frames, they were not just passive consumers of the media. They creatively synthesised a wide range of cultural resources in support of those frames. The thesis, however, concludes that it is not accurate to describe such activity as 'resistance'. The study found that the media provide crucial discursive resources for the construction of identity. This has a significant effect on how people understand themselves, the modes of action they consider appropriate, who they trust and how they understand social difference. The thesis concludes that nationality is still a key way in which people make sense of the world but that Britain is principally depicted as a nation of consumers rather than citizens. GM is predominantly depicted as unnatural. The research indicates that framing risk debates around nature premises physiological as opposed to social risks. Both nature and nation are 'categories of certainty'; they have been used within the Western world to structure how people understand themselves and the world around them. The focus on these categories puts ideas of security and fear at the centre of the GM debate. Frames promoted by environmental NGOs dominated the coverage. The study considers their implications and argues NGOs should not be exclusively concerned with making 'pragmatic', politically expedient demands that do not challenge the basis of inequality. Rather, they should be contributing to a political project which envisages new ways of organising society.

A number of load control techniques and technologies have already been developed for autonomous power systems but no single technique has been widely adopted. Many of these load control systems have been partially successful but have suffered from a number of limitations that were addressed as part of this project. This thesis describes the development of distributed intelligent load controllers designed to address the limitations of previous load control solutions. A self-tuning fuzzy controller was developed to improve the power quality and efficiency of autonomous renewable energy systems. A laboratory wind-diesel test rig was developed to aid the design and testing of the load controller hardware and software. Computer models of wind powered and wind-diesel powered networks were produced to enable the design and testing of distributed fuzzy load control algorithms. The load controllers were tested throughout the development process on four autonomous renewable energy systems: - A single phase 25kVA run of river micro-hydro system in Scotland - A wind only system in the UK, with a 60kW stall regulated wind turbine fitted with a synchronous generator - A 30kW micro-hydro system on the island of Rum in Scotland - A 93kW wind-diesel system at the Rutherford Appleton Laboratories in the UK which used a 45kW stall regulated wind turbine fitted with an induction generator. The site results were promising and showed that distributed intelligent load control is an effective technique for controlling autonomous renewable energy systems.

No description available.