The Energy Performance of Buildings Directives (EPBDs) are political initiatives taken by the European Union to tackle the problems of climate change and security of energy supply. One of the key measures of these directives is the energy performance certification of housing, which has widespread social and economic implications, as well as the potential to impact upon the direction of these initiatives and their environmental consequence. This research is focused on the application of Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs) to housing in the Mediterranean regions of Europe, with the purpose of establishing whether the current calculation methodologies in use for the generation of EPCs accurately represent the energy performance of housing in the region. The analysis was carried out by comparative testing using different national methodologies from Cyprus, Italy, Malta and Spain on four test case properties. The test results were validated against the output from dynamic simulation software and against monitored temperature and energy data from the test case properties. Considerable differences in the outputs from the various national methodologies currently in use were found. It was concluded that: • Several of the EPC calculation methodologies have not been calibrated against the energy profile representative of the national or regional building stock; • The accurate definition of the operating parameters for the heating and cooling system is particularly significant if a more precise prediction of the energy performance of the dwelling is required; • The underlying assumptions made by the national application of the EN ISO 13790 standard for the calculation of the energy use for space heating and cooling have a greater influence on the outputs from the certification methodology than the choice of calculation method. It is quite clear that calibration of the EPC methodology is essential for the certificates to provide an effective means of achieving the aims of the EPBD. However, at a conceptual level, the results from this research have also shown that the mild Mediterranean climate with its inherently low energy demand for residential space heating and cooling could justify a different regional approach to tackle the EPBD goals of reduction in carbon emissions and dependency on imported fuels.

The UK’s natural gas supply is considered secure, but a combination of events could compromise the continuity of supply. Reducing energy demand by implementing rapid energy saving measures has been effective in mitigating many electricity shortages globally to date. This thesis investigates whether similar measures could be effective in the UK in the event of a natural gas shortage, using a case study of London’s households. A mail survey was developed and sent to a sample of 1,600 households in London to investigate which energy saving actions respondents would implement in a gas shortage. The questionnaire suggested a hypothetical scenario, where the media and government asked households to save energy for one month and also included questions about the respondents, their households and their dwellings. The resulting energy savings were subsequently calculated for each household using ‘MESAH’, a computer model developed during this research. This model used energy saving estimates based on a review of literature about household activities that use energy. Using these assumptions, the savings achieved by the different households varied vastly, reaching an overall total of approximately 30% of normal gas and electricity use in January. This result was relatively stable during the winter season. It was however found to be very sensitive to assumptions taken about the energy savings, and whether the respondents implemented actions as stated in the survey. It also found that the different actions proposed had very disparate saving impacts. The savings calculated represent high estimates of energy saving potential, rather than predictions due to uncertainties and limitations in the research. The project identified rapid energy savings as an option for an emergency response, but stressed that this approach should only be taken in extreme situations.

Carbon emission markets, which are designed to reduce emissions of global greenhouse gases (GHGs), have experienced rapid ongoing development even during the recent recession and have attracted considerable attention from policy makers and investors. Therefore, it is important to understand the time series dynamics of carbon asset prices and the behaviour of trading activities in carbon emission markets. This thesis, using the second commitment period data of the European Union emission trading scheme (EU ETS), examines the underlying dynamics driving carbon emission markets, including the performance of state dependent hedge ratios, the impact of arbitrage opportunities on feedback trading activities, as well as the influence of carbon allowance submission deadlines on the relationship between carbon spot and futures markets. The research models the relationship between carbon spot and futures markets by incorporating state dependent characteristics into the return and volatility processes, and finds that the class of regime switching hedging strategies, particularly the proposed new framework which combines regime switching behaviour and disequilibrium adjustment in the mean with state dependent dynamic volatility process, significantly outperform competing methods for all the measures considered, and for both in-sample and out-of-sample analysis. The results indicate that risk managers using Markov regime switching models to hedge the risk in carbon markets achieve greater variance reduction and better hedging performance. Secondly, this study extends Sentana and Wadhwani’s (1992) feedback trading model by allowing arbitrage opportunities to affect the demand of feedback traders in carbon markets. The results suggest that there is no evidence of feedback trading in the carbon market, where institutional investors dominate, although the effect persists in a few other energy markets. This finding supports the view that institutional investors are not necessarily all feedback traders. Thirdly, when examining the influence of the carbon allowance submission deadline on the time series dynamics of carbon spot and futures markets, it is found that the equilibrium level, mean-reverting speed and no-arbitrage boundaries are affected by the submission deadline. However, the submission of allowances does not change the price discovery process of carbon emission markets, where this thesis finds that both the spot and futures markets Granger-cause each other. Furthermore, there is evidence that the volatility spillover process is different before and after the submission deadline, particularly from the spot market to the futures market. Therefore, in modelling the relationship between carbon spot and futures prices, the difference in the mean-reverting process of futures mispricing before and after the submission deadline should be accounted for. Overall, the thesis finds that the carbon emission markets yield different time series characteristics and trading behaviours from other financial markets. The findings of this thesis are of interest to risk managers, investors and arbitragers operating in the carbon emission market and could aid regulators in improving the mechanisms of the EU ETS in the next commitment period.

A high temporal precision model was developed to assess the performance of thermal load following micro-CHP system design variants in detail for a number of design days. Carbon savings (relative to a base-case energy system) and prime mover lifetime drivers (thermal cycling and operating duration) were quantified. Novel performance metrics were defined, including Potential Thermal Supply Demand Ratio, and Effective Carbon Intensity of μCHP-Generated Electricity. Significant relative carbon savings were found for design variants with a PTSDR between 0.1-1.5, suggesting that it is a design selection parameter for thermal supply/demand matching. Alternative μCHP operating regimes, restricted seasonal operation, changing thermal demand, fuel and electricity grid carbon intensities, and energy storage (using batteries and hydrogen) were studied. It was found that annual relative carbon savings in excess of 23% were achievable for appropriately-sized design variants, with relatively high electrical efficiency, once a complex control strategy is applied. The control strategy also reduces thermal cycling for the μCHP design variant (versus the Thermal Load Following operating regime), hence increasing prime mover lifetime.

This thesis contributes to the literature on energy demand in three ways. Firstly, it examines the major determinants of energy demand using a panel of 23 developed countries and 16 developing countries during 1978 to 2003. Secondly, it examines the demand for energy in the industrial sector and the extent of inter-fuel substitution, as well as substitution between energy and non-energy inputs, using data from 5 advanced countries and 5 energy producer's developing countries. Third, the thesis investigates empirically the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for these groups of countries over a 26-year period. The empirical results of this study confirm the majority of the findings in energy demand analysis. Income and price have shown to be important determinants for energy consumption in both developed and developing countries. Moreover, both economic structure and technical progress appear to exert significant impacts on energy consumption. Income has a positive impact on energy demand and the effect is larger in developing countries. In both developed and developing countries, price has a negative impact but these effects are larger in developed countries than in developing countries. The share of industry in GDP is positive and has a greater impact on energy demand in developing countries, whereas technological progress is found to be energy using in developed countries and energy saving in developing countries. With respect to the analysis of inter-factor and inter-fuel substitution in industrial energy demand, the results provide evidence for substitution possibilities between factor inputs and fuels. Substitutability is observed between capital and energy, capital and labour and labour and energy. These findings confirm previous evidence that production technologies in these countries allow flexibility in the capital-energy, capital-labour and labour-energy mix. In the energy sub-model, the elasticities of substitution show that large substitution took place from petroleum to coal, natural gas and especially to electricity. In addition, the evidence for significant inter-fuel substitution between coal and natural gas implies that there is a possibility of replacing the use of coal with natural gas in the industrial sector. The existence of moderate input substitution suggests that there is some flexibility in energy policy options and energy utilization. Finally, the empirical evidence presented in this study suggests that the direction of causality between energy consumption and economic growth varies substantially across countries. There is a unidirectional causality running from GDP to energy consumption in 12 developed countries and in 5 developing countries. A unidirectional causality from energy to GDP exists in Netherlands and bidirectional causality exists in Slovak Republic.

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This thesis addresses problems in the economic modelling of renewable electricity generation industries, with a particular focus on the UK onshore wind industry. Many governments worldwide have instituted steep reduction targets for emissions of gases linked with climate change, in particular carbon dioxide. In order to achieve such reductions, the UK has chosen to support the growth of low-carbon renewable electricity generation industries such as wind, solar, wave and tidal power. Chapter 3 sets out a mathematical model of four financial support mechanisms for renewable energy, and considers the problem of how to control these mechanisms so that they produce the greatest degree of growth at the lowest cost possible. The mathematical model includes the concept of learning, through which production costs decline as experience of production increases. A 1992- 2010 UK onshore wind dataset was used to fit the models developed during the course of this thesis. This was stored in a novel networked database, described in chapter 2. Within economics, learning effects are often assumed to occur at the level of a technology, rather than within an individual company or organisation. Chapter 4 considers the opposite case, in which learning takes place at the level of an individual firm. Firms may choose to share the production cost reductions they gain from learning with other firms either unilaterally or through multilateral reciprocal arrangements known as cliques. The implications of state intervention to prevent monopolies are considered. It is shown that tax-enforced market share limits are superior to limit-by-dictat. However, any form of state intervention in a learning industry is shown to cause average productiOli costs to rise, potentially harming the interests of consumers. Finally, chapter 5 considers the question: is there a relationship between the propensity of a firm to experiment with a range of technologies and its likelihood of finding long-term success?

The injection of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) into saline aquifers could help to reduce anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but due to the potential dangers posed by leakage, extensive monitoring will be required. Ideally this monitoring will be able to determine: CO2 movement, the amount of CO2 stored, the CO2 phase (gaseous, supercritical or dissolved in brine), the trapping mechanism (structural or residual) and the occurrence of pore-pressure changes. The literature review highlighted five uncertainties which could impact on the ability of time-lapse seismic surveys to fulfil the monitoring requirements: the dependence on reservoir properties, the fizz gas effect, the CO2 phase, uncertainty regarding the appropriate fluid distribution model and the effect of pressure build-up. An integrated geological, rock physics, seismic and fluid-flow modelling approach was developed to predict the seismic response to CO2 injection. Two approaches were taken, the first excluded fluid-flow simulation and predicted the sensitivity of the seismic response to reservoir changes, the second included outputs from fluid-flow simulation to predict the time-lapse response. The majority of the modelling was performed for a synthetic clastic saline aquifer at 1500m depth. The sensitivity study was applied to all the uncertainties, whereas fluid-flow simulation was only included to examine fluid distribution and pressure build-up. Through examination of these issues, the ability of the time-lapse seismic surveys to achieve the monitoring aims was established. The zero-offset reflectivity was sensitive enough to detect the migration of both structurally and residually-trapped CO2 irrespective of the fluid-distribution and reservoir depth (up to 2500 m). Unfortunately there was no success with establishing a seismic monitoring approach which could determine the CO2 saturation when a homogeneous fluid distribution was assumed. With regards to detecting the CO2 phase and trapping mechanism there were mixed results. The seismic response was not sensitive enough to distinguish brine from brine saturated with CO2, however the gaseous and supercritical CO2 could be differentiated by AVO cross plotting. The potential for a reflection of the interface between residually and structurally trapped CO2 was identified; this reflection could help constrain how much CO2 was retained via these different mechanisms. Overpressure could be identified by anomalously large amplitude changes and pushdown both within the plume and away from the plume on the zero-offset reflectivity. Pressure and saturation changes could be distinguished from each other using the AVO response. This research suggested a link between the trapping mechanism and fluid distribution model, which could mean that the appropriate fluid distribution model for seismic interpretation may vary over the life-time of a sequestration project. These results were used to guide the development of a monitoring framework for sequestration sites, which could be tailored base upon the specific requirements of the site. Overall conducting this modelling study highlighted the advantages of incorporating fluid-flow simulation results into a seismic sensitivity study and underlined the importance of conducting a monitoring sensitivity study prior to site selection.

CO2 storage in saline aquifers (sandstone/carbonate types) has been proposed as a promising solution to help reduce CO2 emissions to the atmosphere. CO2 will likely be stored as a dense, supercritical (sc.) phase. There are different mechanisms by which CO2 could be stored safely underground; structural and stratigraphic trapping, dissolution trapping, capillary trapping, and mineral trapping. I study capillary trapping. We assume that in the middle of a CO2 plume, many kilometres in extent, the CO2, brine and rock have been in mutual contact for several years. In these circumstances, the degree of capillary trapping is determined by a displacement of CO2 by brine under these equilibrated conditions. Reproducing such conditions in the laboratory poses a challenge. I have measured the first trapping curve, the relation between initial and residual CO2 saturation, for carbonates in the literature, as well as contributing to the first data on sandstones. For capillary trapping experiment, the porous plate method was used during primary drainage. Two sandstones (Berea and Doddington) and two types of carbonates (Ketton and Indiana) were studied. These experiments were conducted at temperatures of 33, 50, and 70 ˚C and 9 MPa pressure, which matches the conditions observed for several current and planned storage sites. Two displacement steps, primary drainage and water flooding were followed to reach residually trapped CO2 saturation. The isothermal de-pressurization method was used to measure the amount of scCO2 residually trapped. The drainage capillary pressure curve, the Leverett J-function and the trapping curve were measured. During capillary trapping experiments, the brine was equilibrated with CO2 to achieve immiscible displacement. We used a stirred reactor, to equilibrate CO2 with brine. The solubility of CO2 in brine was also measured using the isothermal depressurization method and compared with data in the literature.In Berea sandstone the trapping curves at 33, 50 and 70˚C were compared. We showed that temperature (density) variation has no effect on the saturation of scCO2 that is residually trapped. In Doddington sandstone our result was consistent with that from a micro-flow cell in which the trapped scCO2 was imaged using an X-ray source at the pore scale. We find that significant quantities of the CO2 can be trapped, with residual saturations up to 35%, but less than in analogue experiments where oil is displaced by brine. Hence, it is hypothesized that scCO2-brine systems in sandstones are weakly water-wet with less trapping than the more strongly wetting analogues. Capillary trapping in carbonates is very challenging. In carbonates, another step was required, where brine/CO2/carbonate will be equilibrated together before running the capillary trapping experiment. The apparatus used for sandstone rocks was modified so that the geochemical reaction between CO2/rock was accounted for. Samples are taken and analysed to ensure that the brine/CO2 mixture is saturated with carbonate minerals. In Indiana, the CO2 trapping curve for scCO2 at 50 ˚C and 9 MPa was compared with that of gaseous CO2 at 50 ˚C and 4.2 MPa. A scCO2 residual trapping endpoint of 23.7% was observed in Indiana for scCO2, with a smaller trapping end point in Ketton limestone. This indicates a slightly less trapping of scCO2 in carbonates than in sandstone. There is also less trapping for gaseous CO2 (endpoint of 18.8%). The system appears to be more water-wet under scCO2 conditions, which is different from the trend observed in Berea; the greater concentration of Ca2+ in brine at higher pressure was hypothesised to lead to more water-wet conditions. Our work indicates that capillary trapping could effectively store CO2 in carbonate aquifers.

An investigation was carried out to quantify and prioritise the importance of factors that influence energy related decisions in Northern Ireland households. This was achieved by using the largest energy use population survey to date in Northern Ireland, analysis of actual electricity consumption data and analysis using analytical hierarchical modelling. The use of Analytical Hierarchical modelling has been developed for this investigation and has provided a novel way of quantifying the importance of various factors that influence household energy use. 85% of households are interested in reducing their energy use motivated mainly by a desire to save money (86%); by comparison, only 9% are interested in reducing their carbon footprint and 5% due to a sense of obligation. The per person electricity consumption by apartment dwellers was the smallest compared to households in other types of homes. Those in the rental group found measures where there is a sacrifice in comfort or potential well-being were more acceptable as a strategy to reduce energy use compared to owner occupiers, and the latter would prefer to invest in 'fit and forget' measures. Sacrificial measures were the last acceptable strategy for the older age bracket, identifying behavioural change measures as the most acceptable strategy. The group as a whole prioritised the importance of energy related considerations (with the quantified weightings shown in brackets) and are as follows: implementing measures that will reduce household running costs (22.4%); measures with minimal maintenance requirements (11.4%); measures that will improve comfort (10.4%); lower cost measures (10.4%); measures that will bring added convenience (10.4%); measures that will modernise the home (10.4%); measures with a short payback period (10%); measures that will cause minimum disruption during installation (9.3%); and measures that will contribute to a low carbon footprint (5.4%). Low carbon footprint is the least important consideration. 9% were motivated by a need to reduce their carbon footprint. When considered in isolation, this group found the need to lower their carbon footprint a high priority, with a weighting of 15.5% the second most important consideration after the need to reduce household running costs, which had a weighting of 16%. The promotion of multi-generational households and encouraging downsizing from large under-occupied homes to more size appropriate housing units combined with specific legislation requiring a minimum standard of energy efficiency for homes in the private rented sector is needed, in light of the high levels of fuel poverty in Northern Ireland.