Adequate supply of healthy planting material, at reasonable prices, is of critical importance to the functioning of the potato industry. True Potato Seed (TPS) technology offers an alternative way to produce potato planting material, based on the use of botanical potato seeds. This study investigates the hypothesis that the use of TPS technology, in a similar way as practised in the USA, will be beneficial to the European Union. It is assumed that the TPS varieties that have been bred in the USA are also capable of meeting the demands of the EU markets. The current status of the EU potato industry and the working of TPS technology are reviewed. As part of this study botanical potato seeds from nine TPS varieties that are commercially available in the USA, have been imported into and used to initiate the first ever field trials within the European Union. A large mathematical model has been purposely built to simulate the uptake of TPS technology by the EU potato industry, and to assess the agronomic and economic effects. The modelling results of various scenarios all indicate that the use of TPS technology would bring economic and agricultural benefits to the EU. The annual savings could be as high as 130 million ECU per year, whilst reducing the potato growing area with up to 72,000 ha. Implications of these finding, and current limitations for the uptake of TPS technology inside the EU are discussed.

The main purpose of this thesis is to both review the existing econometric evidence and to provide further empirical evidence on supply response to prices and risk in order to assess the quantitative significance of price variables in the agricultural sector. Empirical results presented in this thesis are based on state and province level estimates from Turkish agriculture for the time period of 1950-90. Estimates of short-run elasticities of area planted with respect to the ratio of own-price and cross-price to fertiliser price are (0.813) and (-0.270), respectively. The corresponding long-run estimates are (0.230) and (-0.297). By convention an elasticity less than 1% is considered inelastic. In terms of the size of the estimated elasticities following points should be made: Firstly, the short-run response in agriculture is very low, because the main inputs such as land, labour and capital, are fixed. Secondly, the size of short- and long-run elasticities are close to each other. This could be explained by the low elasticity of supply response of the fixed factors. The elasticity of supply response increases with time as desired factor reallocation becomes more complete and as factors which are fixed in the short-run can become variable. Thirdly, the introduction of new varieties provides a significant and positive acreage response (0.637), while the stabilisation policies decrease (-0.293) area planted for wheat in the province. In the light of such evidence, the case for a positive price policy for agricultural development is strong indeed.

It is often argued that the burden of providing surplus in the primary producing countries falls upon agriculture. By extracting this surplus to be utilized in clearing the way for rapid growth, economic development would be sustained. This raises an empirical question: how can agricultural production be increased. The logic of increasing agricultural productivity may be explained in terms of investment allocation among sectors, and resource allocation within the agricultural sector. Rapid growth in an early stage of economic development might be achieved through reallocation of investment in favour of agriculture. In a second stage agricultural resources must efficiently be allocated to ensure continuous development. These two aspects are investigated and tested with respect to the Egyptian economy, in an attempt to identify the possibility of increasing agricultural productivity under the present economic structure. The study is therefore divided into an introduction and two broad parts. In the introduction we briefly sketch the characteristics of Egyptian agriculture in order to recognise its role in the national economy and to investigate the implication of the present agricultural policy. Part one (two chapters) is devoted to testing investment allocation efficiency among the commodity sectors. In chapter II, the arguments for and against agricultural development are recalled to be analysed with respect to empirical evidence from the past. The necessity of agricultural development is investigated to be tested against the conditions under which the primary producing countries operate. A three sectoral approach emphasises on creating agricultural surplus in the early stages of economic development is suggested in Chapter III, to be tested with respect to the Egyptian economy during the period 1960-65. Minimum capital-output ratio criterion is applied in reallocating investment among commodity sectors. Comparison between the actual outcome and that resulted from investment reallocation is made to justify the suggested approach. An input-output table is employed to show the interrelation between sectors and to ensure overall balance. A demand - supply table is used to determine sectoral surplus (or deficit). Part two comprises five chapters to be devoted to testing resource allocation efficiency within the agricultural sector. In chapter IV, both technical and economic theory of production are reviewed with special referrence to the popular forms of production function analysing their limitations in both theoretical and practical terms, and showing the major statistical constraints to the application of production function approach. The previous empirical investigations of production behaviour in Egyptian agriculture are survied in chapter V. In the remaining chapters, an attempt is made to identify agricultural potentiality in terms of resource allocation efficiency. The whole area is divided into five regions. North & West Delta, Middle Delta, East Delta, Middle Egypt and Upper Egypt. Production behaviour is examined for each region separately to test for resource allocation efficiency among regions. A production function approach is adopted to test technical efficiency. Three algebraic forms; linear function, Cobb-Douglas function and constant Elasticity of Substitution function are tested against the numerical observations. A time series production function for the period 1960-75 is estimated in chapter VI. A separate production function (i.e. disaggrative production function) is fitted for the major crops (cotton, rice and wheat) in each region. Chapter VII is devoted to testing technical efficiency with respect to the various farm size classes and tenure forms. Estimates are based on cross sectional data collected directly from the farmers and confined to cotton, the major single crop. A two-stage model is applied to test resource allocation efficiency among as well as within stages of cultivation. A management index is derived to examine its impact on large farms efficiency. In the final chapter (chapter VIII) a maximisation approach for constrained extrema is adopted to determine the optimum level of output (i.e. maximum profit) for the various classes of farm size to be utilised in identifying the productivity gap under the present situation and to find out the relevant class of farm size to Egyptian agriculture. The implications of the findings are discussed.

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The fertiliser industry is a significant contributor to the Indonesian economy. Given the need to distribute its products to customers on the 17,000 islands making up the Indonesian archipelago, capacity and availability of ports is a major factor in managing fertiliser product lifecycles and the supply networks. Fluctuations in the availability of infrastructure influence levels of risk in the supply networks. Supply network resilience is important to maintain the performance of the Indonesian fertiliser industry. Currently, decision makers in the Indonesian fertiliser industry use risk assessment reports to assess resilience. Discussions with Indonesian fertiliser industry managers highlighted a second, port management, report that is used to evaluate the availability of infrastructure. An opportunity was identified to use both reports in assessing resilience. This thesis is based on the premise that the risk assessment report can be used as an information resource for resilience assessment. A theoretical framework, based on a synthesis of literature and interviews with industry practitioners, is proposed. Results from interviews concluded that the supply network is a system consisting of social and technical factors. Thus, the approach needed to include both factors. Secondary data collected from risk assessment reports and primary data from brainstorming with key people in the industry were used to validate the approach. The theoretical framework was used to inform the construction of a conceptual model that was populated with data from a real-world case study. A simulation model was then built to translate the conceptual model into a practical application. The simulation model was used to investigate the results of the resilience assessment in different scenarios and predict levels of risk. Early feedback from Indonesian fertiliser industry practitioners indicated that the model could be valuable in the assessment of resilience. This research provides a new approach for managers to predict the level of risk in supply networks. Since the Indonesian fertiliser industry is owned and governed by the Indonesian state, the approach could be used by policy makers as a prototype to assess the current condition of the supply network in Indonesian industries and the output could be used to underpin the planning of supply networks in the future. For academia, the approach provides a new theoretical framework for research on supply network resilience and presents a real example of how agent-based modelling might be used as a tool to support the assessment of resilience.

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