Oil and its products are the main fuel of today's global society. It is therefore necessary to ensure the continuous, smooth and uninterrupted flow of oil to end users. The aim of this thesis is to examine and assess the ability of the petroleum supply chain to retain functionality when damaged in some way. The main causes of interruptions considered are random failures, such as natural disasters or accidental damages, malicious attacks and intentional disruptions. The research seeks a holistic assessment of oil supply chain vulnerability addressing such interruptions. A literature review is conducted on the topographic properties of networks and how network structure is related to reliability, vulnerability, robustness and criticality. The disruption causes and the various measures of vulnerability are also examined in order to identify the characteristics of critical failure scenarios. Literature review is further extended over the development, operations and management of the oil supply chain and the response measures in place for replacing and recovering lost throughput in case of a disruption. The methodology adopted consists of three optimization stages, namely shortest path finding, flow assignment and network interdiction. Shortest path finding is concerned with the topographic features of the oil supply chain and more specifically with the establishment of optimal origin-destination paths. The oil supply chain that is modelled as a multi-origin multi-destination spatial network making use of Djikstra's shortest path search algorithm. The second optimization stage regards the assignment of flow and the satisfaction of user demand. A minimum cost flow problem similar to the transportation problem is used for that purpose. The model is fitted to the oil context by adding a fleet capacity constraint and a deterministic fleet velocity factor. The latter optimization stage is conducted using a game theoretic interdiction model based on a two-player zero-sum game mixed strategy proposed by Bell (2000). The results obtained are both of methodological and practical nature. Vulnerability has been assessed for two different set-ups of the oil supply network aiming to capture different vulnerability aspects. The results highlight vulnerable network components and stress weak locations where infrastructure improvements can be made. Furthermore, policy weaknesses are identified.

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Orientador : Prof. Dr. Armando João Dalla Costa / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Federal do Paraná, Setor de Ciencias Sociais Aplicadas, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Desenvolvimento Ecônomico. Defesa : Curitiba, 17/03/2016 / Inclui referências : f. 89-93 / Resumo: As reservas de petróleo no Brasil devido as características geológicas encontram-se nas bacias sedimentares localizadas ao longo da costa em solo oceânico em uma região conhecida como província do pré-sal. Contudo, não havia tecnologia disponível no setor petrolífero para a exploração e produção em um ambiente tão adverso. Com o propósito de desenvolver tecnologia para a exploração e produção de petróleo no pré-sal. A Petrobras constituiu um sistema de inovação gerenciado pelo (CENPES) com o objetivo de coordenar as atividades de P&D desenvolvidas pelos seus parceiros. Para tal, estabeleceu uma rede complexa conforme o modelo tripple helix, agrupada por temas de interesse denominada como: redes temáticas. Composta por Instituições de ensino e pesquisa pública e particulares e empresas de base tecnológica. Em 2006 a Petrobras encontrou óleo e gás no pré-sal; em 2007 implantou o Programa Tecnológico para o Desenvolvimento da Produção dos Reservatórios do Pré-sal (PROSAL). Esta dissertação tem como objetivo analisar a evolução do aprendizado tecnológico a evolução do conhecimento a partir do sistema de inovação da Petrobras. A conclusão geral foi a constatação de que o sistema tecnológico implantado pela Petrobras, permitiu a companhia produzir conhecimento e gerar tecnologia para viabilizar a produção e permitir ao país a autossuficiência em petróleo. Palavras-chave: Sistema de Inovação. Redes Temáticas. Petrobrás. Exploração do Pré-Sal. / Abstract: Oil reserves in Brazil due to geological features are found in sedimentary basins located along the coast on the ocean floor in a region known as the pre-salt province. However, there was no technology available in the oil sector for exploration and production in such a harsh environment. In order to develop technology for the exploration and production of oil in the pre-salt. Petrobras was an innovation systemmanaged by (CENPES) in order to coordinate R & D activities carried out by itspartners. To this end, it established a complex network as tripple helix model, grouped by topics of interest known as thematic networks. Composed by educational institutions and public and private research and technology-based companies. In 2006, Petrobras found oil and gas in the pre-salt; in 2007 It was established the Technological Program for the Development of Production of Pre-salt reservoirs (Prosal). This thesis aims to analyze the evolution of technological learning the evolution of knowledge from Petrobras innovation system. The general conclusion was the fact that the technological system implemented by Petrobras allowed the company to produce knowledge and generate technology to enable the productionand enable the country to self-sufficiency in oil.Keywords: Innovation System. Thematic Networks. Petrobras. Exploration Pre-Salt.