It is widely recognised that the perspective of the UK transport political agenda has shifted from the provision of services towards improving the quality management process, in order to alleviate the problems resulting from the accelerated car dependency. This political shift has imposed several demands on public transport, and specifically on bus services, to achieve sustainable and integrated transport solutions. It is evident that in order to attract more people to public transport, the service quality should be able to accommodate the quality level demanded by current customers, and importantly, the quality level desired by potential customers. However, the traditional quality management process has concentrated on the individual analysis of two quality measures: performance and perception, while it has failed to consider the multidimensional interrelationships between both measures and the side-effects of performance quality on user perception. This conflict represents an area of lacking research which forms the basis of this study to evaluate and optimise the performance quality of bus services with perception and attitude measures of both current and potential users. The study implemented a mixed method approach and collected data on user preference, satisfaction, and performance quality. Multiple techniques were operationalised including qualitative analysis of user perception, multi-perspective analysis of stakeholders towards the application relevance of bus quality indicators, analytical hierarchy process (AHP) modelling of user preferences, weighted perception index of current and potential users, and binary logistic regression analysis (BLRA) of the influences of performance quality on the perception of different categories of users. The combination of these techniques is operationalised to construct a novel methodological approach for evaluating bus quality that considers performance (objective) and perception (subjective) quality parameters and considers the perceptions of current and potential users. The study highlighted various contributions to knowledge: firstly, the study developed a concise set of bus quality indicators that considers the perspectives of all stakeholders and could be readily implemented across the sector. Secondly, the study found that although the preferences of users towards bus service vary significantly within context and level of involvement, ten indicators explain a significant share of the preferences of different categories of users towards bus services. Thirdly, the study identified that using only preference or satisfaction for evaluating user perception may lead to limited results, and the integration of both generates new patterns of weighted perception measure which distinctly explains the internal composition of user perception. Fourthly, the study found that eleven performance indicators have significant impact on the perception of current and potential users. Lastly, the study concluded by illustrating two alternatives for optimising the performance quality of bus services with the perceptions of current and potential users by balancing the required quality improvements with the current desire for economical recession.

The reliability of bus systems is a vital issue on the transport agenda, since urban areas are yearning for high quality alternatives for the private car. A key indicator of reliability is a low level of day-to-day travel time variability (TTV). To obtain funds for reducing TTV, it is necessary to give evidence for the benefits from such improvement, but current tools for estimating the cost of TTV are insufficient. This thesis covers issues that arise when analysts need to show that improved bus infrastructure brings benefits from reduced TTV. The first part of the thesis aims at understanding how the attitudes of travellers to TTV can be converted into monetary terms. The design of a survey is described, where respondents trade-off between TTV and other attributes. A modelling experiment, based on the survey responses, finds that the effect of TTV is best explained using variables that represent trip scheduling considerations. Following is a series of experiments that seek to estimate the willingness-to-pay for reduced TTV in a way that is sensitive to taste variation between travellers. Several Mixed Logit models are estimated, but some doubts about their credibility are raised, and hence the same willingness-to-pay estimates are also computed using nonparametric techniques. Some conclusions are drawn regarding the process of estimating heterogeneous willingness-to-pay and the ability to recognise the willingness-to-pay from survey data. The starting point for the second part of the thesis is the lack of tools for estimating the level of TTV in hypothetical scenarios. We, consider the case for using traffic microsimulation to estimate TTV by running a microsimulation model multiple times, and looking at the variation between runs as an estimate of the variation between different days. Such concept of estimation requires a special calibration methodology, which sets the level of simulated inter-run variability at a similar level to inter-day variability in the real network. A full calibration methodology is developed, tackling methodological, computational and statistical issues. Finally, the demand and supply methodologies are combined, and it is illustrated how the savings from improved bus infrastructure can be examined. The contribution of the entire study includes methodological and technical insights into modelling the attitudes to TTV, estimating the distribution of the willingness-to-pay and calibrating traffic microsimulation models; but it also brings up policy issues concerning the role of TTV in transport appraisal.

The 1985 Transport Act, by which the British local bus industry outside London was deregulated, is considered as one of the most pioneering reforms of public transport policy in the world. The deregulation package (which also included privatisation and subsidy reduction) was controversial and was subject to heated academic debates over how successful it would be (and consequently has been) in reversing the deteriorating performance of local bus services since the Second World War. This debate specifically focused on issues concerning the efficiency of service provision, quality of service, and overall welfare. In addition, the contrasting regulatory system adopted in London (competitive tendering) has given opportunities for researchers to evaluate and compare the outcomes of these contrasting systems and draw conclusions over the impacts of such regulatory reforms on the local bus industry in Great Britain. Commentators began to evaluate regulatory experience as quickly as the end of the first year after deregulation. However, the amount of research has declined as time has passed. The key fundamental questions, which the current research is trying to answer, are: what are the longer term impacts of the deregulation policy, how successful was it in achieving its objectives and what lessons can be drawn after more than 20 years? These questions can be answered by carrying out cost-benefit analyses of deregulation policy compared to the counterfactual as well as to the alternative regime adopted in London. A key issue when examining long term changes is that of the counterfactual – what would have happened if the changes had not occurred? Econometric models of the demand, fare and cost for local bus services in Britain (London and the rest of the country) are outlined and used along with extrapolative methods for some key input variables such as bus kms and subsidy to determine counterfactuals. A large number of dynamic demand models have been estimated, considering both fixed and random effect, and using a variety of estimation methods including the Feasible Generalised Least Squares procedure (FGLS-AR(1)) and the Panel Corrected Standard Error (PCSE-AR(1)) method. In addition to Partial Adjustment Models (PAM), several Error Correction Models (ECM) were developed. Some analyses of subsidy and of costs are also outlined. The developed fares models are used to assess the impact of changes in subsidy (in terms of revenue support and concessionary fare reimbursements). The cost models are used to determine the extent to which costs are determined by external factors (such as fuel prices) or partially external factors (such as labour costs). This then permits the examination of welfare change by estimating changes in consumer and producer surpluses as well the impacts on government, bus workers, and society as a whole. Our finding is that there are net welfare decreases outside London, by contrast, welfare increases are found in London irrespective of whether subsidy changes impacts are included or excluded. We find that bus reforms in London have been more welfare enhancing than the reforms in Great Britain outside London, where deregulation led to substantial welfare losses in the first decade of the reforms (1985/6 to 1995/6). From the second decade onwards there are smaller losses. However, the results are sensitive to the specification of the modelling system and assumptions made concerning the counterfactual for the deregulated area in particular. This work confirms the sensitivity of the long term evaluation of transport policy to assumptions concerning the counterfactual and trends in demand, supply and prices. Any policy lessons inferred from these long term evaluations therefore need to take these sensitivities into account.

Includes bibliographical references. / iv. : ill. ; 30 cm. / Title page, contents and abstract only. The complete thesis in print form is available from the University Library. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Adelaide, Dept. of Economics, 1996