Climate change is predicted to become a major cause of species loss in the coming century. Shifts in distribution as a response to changing conditions have already been observed for many terrestrial organisms. A species’ capacity to respond to climate change will depend greatly on its ability to track suitable conditions; those unable to track optimum conditions will be under increased threat of local extinction. There is, therefore, a need to include dispersal parameters in models that forecast the impact of climate change on species distributions, but this is limited by a paucity of dispersal data for many species. In this thesis I develop predictive models of dispersal ability to improve estimates of both distance and rate of dispersal in mammals. Chapter 2 presents a database of empirically derived dispersal distances for mammals and an analysis of the probability distribution of those distances, aimed at describing the ‘tail’ of the kernel, important in understanding long distance dispersal. Chapter 3 assesses the explanatory power of species’ life history and ecology, within a phylogenetic framework, to predict dispersal distances. Chapter 4 examines the roles of dispersal and colonisation ability in mediating the extent to which a species can fill its potential environmental niche and quantifies the effects of model accuracy and projection extent on this approach. Chapter 5 utilises a new technique for identifying patterns of geographic and phylogenetic constraint to examine the dual roles of evolutionary history and environment in determining a species’ ability to fill its potential environmental niche. This thesis helps to clarify controls on range limits and to incorporate such controls into species distribution models. By providing more accurate predictions of the impacts of climate change on species range size and location, this work helps us to better understand the threat to species diversity from global change.

Population projection matrix (PPM) models are a central tool in ecology and evolution. They are widely used for devising population management practises for conservation, pest control, and harvesting. They are frequently employed in comparative analyses that seek to explain demographic patterns in natural populations. They are also a key tool in calculating measures of fitness for evolutionary studies. Yet, demographic analyses using projection matrices have, in some ways, failed to keep up with prevailing ecological paradigms. A common focus on long-term and equilibrium dynamics when analysing projection matrix models fits better with the outmoded view of ecosystems as stable and immutable. The more current view of ecosystems as dynamic and subject to constant extrinsic disturbances has bred new theoretical advances in the study of short-term "transient" dynamics. Transient dynamics can be very different to long-term trends, and given that ecological studies are often conducted over short timescales, they may be more relevant to research. This thesis focuses on the study of transient dynamics using population projection matrix models. The first section presents theoretical, methodological and computational advances in the study of transient dynamics. These are designed to enhance the predictive power of models, whilst keeping data requirements to a minimum, and borrow from the fields of engineering and systems control. Case studies in this section provide support for consideration of transient dynamics in population management. The second section applies some of these new methods to answer pertinent questions surrounding the ecology and evolution of transient dynamics in plants. Results show that transient dynamics exhibit patterns according to life form and phylogenetic history. Evidence suggests that this can be linked to the stage-structuring of life cycles, which opens up the possibility for new avenues of research considering the evolution of transient dynamics in nature.

Intraguild competition and predation have been recognised as important ecological factors influencing the population dynamics of carnivores. The effects of these interactions are often asymmetrical due to a size-related dominancy hierarchy. However, it has been suggested that competitively subordinate carnivores can minimise the costs of predation and competition through spatial and temporal avoidance. Here I investigate the ecological and behavioural mechanisms by which cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) coexist with competitively stronger lions (Panthera leo) and spotted hyaenas (Crocuta crocuta). Fieldwork was carried out in the Okavango Delta, northern Botswana, between October 2008 and August 2011. A total of 20 Global Positioning System (GPS) radio-collars were fitted on all known cheetahs (n=6), lion prides (n=5) and spotted hyaena clans (n=6) in the study area (approx. 3 000 km²). Pre-programmed radio-collars recorded locations and activity continuously for each individual and these data were complemented with direct behavioural observations. Cheetah data were analysed with respect to the temporal and spatial likelihood of encountering lions and spotted hyaenas. Results suggest that the response to the risks posed by other predators is species-specific, habitat-specific and dependent on the immediacy of the risk. Resource partitioning was not the main mechanism for coexistence as cheetahs overlapped extensively with lions and spotted hyaenas in time, space and habitat use. Instead, cheetahs adjusted their spatial distribution in response to immediate risks or adapted their habitat use depending on their vulnerability (e.g. behaviours such as feeding or with differing levels of moonlight at night). In general, cheetah temporal and spatial distribution is a hierarchal process, firstly driven by resource acquisition and thereafter fine-tuned by predator avoidance. In addition, habitat heterogeneity seemed to be key in facilitating coexistence. Understanding the behavioural mechanisms that interacting apex predators adopt to regulate these negative interactions could be crucial to carnivore conservation, especially as human-related habitat loss is forcing species into ever smaller areas.