Idealized bathymetries were subjected to idealized cyclones in order to measure the storm surge response to a range of bathymetry features, under various storm conditions. Ten bathymetries were considered, including eight shoals, one pit, and a featureless reference domain. Six storms (two different sizes/intensities and three different landfall directions) were used as meteorological forcing. The bathymetry features influenced local surge response during pre- and post-peak surge conditions. However, peak surge and surge at the coast were not meaningfully affected by the presence of the bathymetry features considered. The effect of three bathymetry feature parameters on surge response was analyzed (i.e. depth below mean sea level, cross-shore width, and distance from shore). Of these parameters, feature depth below mean sea level was the most influential on surge generation.

This thesis presents a technique for storm surge forecasting. Storm surge is the water that is pushed toward the shore by the force of the winds swirling around the storm. This advancing surge combines with the normal tides to create the hurricane storm tide, which can increase the mean water level by almost 20 feet. Numerical modeling is an important tool used for storm surge forecast. Numerical model ADCIRC (Advanced Circulation model; Luettich et al, 1992) is used in this thesis for simulating hurricanes. A statistical technique, EST (Empirical Statistical Technique) is used to generate life cycle storm surge values from the simulated hurricanes. These two models have been applied to Freeport, TX. The thesis also compares the results with the model SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes), which is currently used for evacuation and planning. The present approach of classifying hurricanes according to their maximum sustained winds is analyzed. This approach is not found to applicable in all the cases and more research needs to be done. An alternate approach is suggested for hurricane storm surge estimation.

Wave-induced circulation in general coastal environments is simulated by coupling two widely-used finite-element models, namely, a refraction-diffraction-reflection model based on the elliptic mild-slope equation, and a two-dimensional (depth-averaged) shelf-scale circulation model. Such models yield wave-induced current-fields and set-up/down. This involves exploration of some numerical and practical issues, for example, the selection of appropriate boundary condition and grid resolution, numerical errors owing to higher-order derivatives, etc. Computations of the wave forcing from the elliptic wave model, and the wave-induced quantities from the circulation model, are validated with theoretical and published results. The coupled system is then used to simulate the wave-induced circulation in the domains where structures (e.g. breakwater, jetty, etc.) and bathymetric features (e.g. shoal, etc.) are present. In practice, usually an approximate form of the wave-induced forcing is used. This has certain limitations in some application, which have been poorly studied so far. Therefore, here we consider two alternative approaches. The performance of these wave forcing formulations is examined in the regions where the effects of wave reflection, diffraction and focusing are significant. It is observed that the “generalized approach” provides satisfactory results in most situations, provided a grid resolution of L/10 or more is achievable for the wave model domain. The widely-used simplified approach may produce a chaotic pattern of set-up/down and current field in the regions where the wave field is not purely progressive. The third approach ignores the effect of wave diffraction and reflection, and primarily simulates the effect of energy dissipation. Differences up to 25 percent are observed between the modeled current fields obtained with the generalized and the simplified approach. The results suggest that the generalized approach can be used with little practical difficulty and greater reliability.

This thesis presents a technique for storm surge forecasting. Storm surge is the water that is pushed toward the shore by the force of the winds swirling around the storm. This advancing surge combines with the normal tides to create the hurricane storm tide, which can increase the mean water level by almost 20 feet. Numerical modeling is an important tool used for storm surge forecast. Numerical model ADCIRC (Advanced Circulation model; Luettich et al, 1992) is used in this thesis for simulating hurricanes. A statistical technique, EST (Empirical Statistical Technique) is used to generate life cycle storm surge values from the simulated hurricanes. These two models have been applied to Freeport, TX. The thesis also compares the results with the model SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes), which is currently used for evacuation and planning. The present approach of classifying hurricanes according to their maximum sustained winds is analyzed. This approach is not found to applicable in all the cases and more research needs to be done. An alternate approach is suggested for hurricane storm surge estimation.

The objective of this research is to identify the circulation patterns of the water and sediment fluxes in coastal and estuarine zones, where the shoaling processes correlate with tide generating flow patterns. The research provides a better understanding of the characteristics of spatial and temporal variability of currents. An important deviation from previous research is the inclusion of the baroclinic term, which becomes very important in density driven flows. The understanding of this process provides a basis for determining how the water circulation three-dimensionally controls the hydrodynamics of the system and ultimately transports the suspended and soluble materials due to combined currents and waves. A three-dimensional circulation model is used to calculate the water circulation. The model is based on the three-dimensional (3D) version of Advanced Circulation (AD-CIRC) Hydrodynamic Model with extending the Sediment Transport module. The model is based on the finite element method on unstructured grids. The output of the hydrody-namic model is used to estimate spatial and temporal advections, dispersions and bottom shear stress for the erosion, suspension, deposition and transport of sediment. The model development includes extending the existing three-dimensional (3D) ADCIRC Model with (1) baroclinic forcing term and (2) transport module of suspended and soluble materials. The transport module covers the erosion, material suspension and deposition processes for both cohesive and non-cohesive type sediments. The inclusion of the baroclinic demonstrates the potential of over or underpredicting the total net transport of suspended cohesive sediment under influence of currents. The model provides less than 6% error of theoretical mass conservation for eroded, suspended and deposited sediment material. The inclusion of the baroclinic term in stratified water demonstrates the prevailing longshore sediment transport. It is shown that the model has an application to the transport of the cohesive sediments from the mouth of the Mississippi River along the north shore of the Gulf of Mexico towards and along the Texas coast. The model is also applicable to determine the design erosion thickness of a cap for isolating contaminated dredged material and to evaluate the appro-priate grain size of cap sediments to minimize the erosion.

Given the past history and future risk of storm surge in the United States, alternative storm protection techniques are needed to protect vital sectors of the economy and population, particularly within southeastern Louisiana. It is widely hypothesized that coastal wetlands offer protection from storm surge and wave action, though the extent of this protection is unknown due to the complex physics behind vegetated flow dynamics. This thesis presents numerical modeling results that estimate the relative sensitivity of waves and storm surge to characteristics embodied by coastal wetlands. An idealized grid domain and 400 km2 (20 km by 20 km) marsh feature provide a controlled environment for evaluating marsh characteristics, including bottom friction, elevation, and continuity. Marsh continuity is defined as the ratio of healthy marsh area to open water area within the total wetland area. It is determined that increased bottom friction reduces storm surge levels and wave heights. Through the roughening of the bottom from sandy to covered with tall grass, it is estimated that waves may be dampened by up to 1.2 m at the coast, and peak surge may be reduced by as much as 35%. The lowering of marsh elevation generally increases wave heights and decreases surge levels, as expected. A 3.5 m decrease in marsh elevation results in as much as a 2.6 m increase in wave height, and up to a 15% decrease in surge levels. Reductions in marsh continuity enhance surge conveyance into and out of the marsh. For storms of low surge potential, surge is increased by as much as 70% at the coast due to decreasing marsh continuity from 100% to 50%, while for storms of high surge potential, surge is decreased by 5%. This indicates that for storms of high surge potential, a segmented marsh may offer comparable surge protection to that of a continuous marsh. Wave heights are generally increased within the marsh due to the transmission of wave energy through marsh channels. Results presented in this thesis may assist in the justification of coastal wetland mitigation, and optimize marsh restoration in terms of providing maximum storm protection.

The objective of this research is to identify the circulation patterns of the water and sediment fluxes in coastal and estuarine zones, where the shoaling processes correlate with tide generating flow patterns. The research provides a better understanding of the characteristics of spatial and temporal variability of currents. An important deviation from previous research is the inclusion of the baroclinic term, which becomes very important in density driven flows. The understanding of this process provides a basis for determining how the water circulation three-dimensionally controls the hydrodynamics of the system and ultimately transports the suspended and soluble materials due to combined currents and waves. A three-dimensional circulation model is used to calculate the water circulation. The model is based on the three-dimensional (3D) version of Advanced Circulation (AD-CIRC) Hydrodynamic Model with extending the Sediment Transport module. The model is based on the finite element method on unstructured grids. The output of the hydrody-namic model is used to estimate spatial and temporal advections, dispersions and bottom shear stress for the erosion, suspension, deposition and transport of sediment. The model development includes extending the existing three-dimensional (3D) ADCIRC Model with (1) baroclinic forcing term and (2) transport module of suspended and soluble materials. The transport module covers the erosion, material suspension and deposition processes for both cohesive and non-cohesive type sediments. The inclusion of the baroclinic demonstrates the potential of over or underpredicting the total net transport of suspended cohesive sediment under influence of currents. The model provides less than 6% error of theoretical mass conservation for eroded, suspended and deposited sediment material. The inclusion of the baroclinic term in stratified water demonstrates the prevailing longshore sediment transport. It is shown that the model has an application to the transport of the cohesive sediments from the mouth of the Mississippi River along the north shore of the Gulf of Mexico towards and along the Texas coast. The model is also applicable to determine the design erosion thickness of a cap for isolating contaminated dredged material and to evaluate the appro-priate grain size of cap sediments to minimize the erosion.

Coastal ocean models are used for a vast array of applications. These applications include modeling tidal and coastal flows, waves, and extreme events, such as tsunamis and hurricane storm surges. Tidal and coastal flows are the primary application of this work as they play a critical role in many practical research areas such as contaminant transport, navigation through intracoastal waterways, development of coastal structures (e.g. bridges, docks, and breakwaters), commercial fishing, and planning and execution of military operations in marine environments, in addition to recreational aquatic activities. Coastal ocean models are used to determine tidal amplitudes, time intervals between low and high tide, and the extent of the ebb and flow of tidal waters, often at specific locations of interest. However, modeling tidal flows can be quite complex, as factors such as the configuration of the coastline, water depth, ocean floor topography, and hydrographic and meteorological impacts can have significant effects and must all be considered. Water levels and currents in the coastal ocean can be modeled by solv- ing the shallow water equations. The shallow water equations contain many parameters, and the accurate estimation of both tides and storm surge is dependent on the accuracy of their specification. Of particular importance are the parameters used to define the bottom stress in the domain of interest [50]. These parameters are often heterogeneous across the seabed of the domain. Their values cannot be measured directly and relevant data can be expensive and difficult to obtain. The parameter values must often be inferred and the estimates are often inaccurate, or contain a high degree of uncertainty [28]. In addition, as is the case with many numerical models, coastal ocean models have various other sources of uncertainty, including the approximate physics, numerical discretization, and uncertain boundary and initial conditions. Quantifying and reducing these uncertainties is critical to providing more reliable and robust storm surge predictions. It is also important to reduce the resulting error in the forecast of the model state as much as possible. The accuracy of coastal ocean models can be improved using data assimilation methods. In general, statistical data assimilation methods are used to estimate the state of a model given both the original model output and observed data. A major advantage of statistical data assimilation methods is that they can often be implemented non-intrusively, making them relatively straightforward to implement. They also provide estimates of the uncertainty in the predicted model state. Unfortunately, with the exception of the estimation of initial conditions, they do not contribute to the information contained in the model. The model error that results from uncertain parameters is reduced, but information about the parameters in particular remains unknown. Thus, the other commonly used approach to reducing model error is parameter estimation. Historically, model parameters such as the bottom stress terms have been estimated using variational methods. Variational methods formulate a cost functional that penalizes the difference between the modeled and observed state, and then minimize this functional over the unknown parameters. Though variational methods are an effective approach to solving inverse problems, they can be computationally intensive and difficult to code as they generally require the development of an adjoint model. They also are not formulated to estimate parameters in real time, e.g. as a hurricane approaches landfall. The goal of this research is to estimate parameters defining the bottom stress terms using statistical data assimilation methods. In this work, we use a novel approach to estimate the bottom stress terms in the shallow water equations, which we solve numerically using the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model. In this model, a modified form of the 2-D shallow water equations is discretized in space by a continuous Galerkin finite element method, and in time by finite differencing. We use the Manning’s n formulation to represent the bottom stress terms in the model, and estimate various fields of Manning’s n coefficients by assimilating synthetic water elevation data using a square root Kalman filter. We estimate three types of fields defined on both an idealized inlet and a more realistic spatial domain. For the first field, a Manning’s n coefficient is given a constant value over the entire domain. For the second, we let the Manning’s n coefficient take two distinct values, letting one define the bottom stress in the deeper water of the domain and the other define the bottom stress in the shallower region. And finally, because bottom stress terms are generally spatially varying parameters, we consider the third field as a realization of a stochastic process. We represent a realization of the process using a Karhunen-Lo`ve expansion, and then seek to estimate the coefficients of the expansion. We perform several observation system simulation experiments, and find that we are able to accurately estimate the bottom stress terms in most of our test cases. Additionally, we are able to improve forecasts of the model state in every instance. The results of this study show that statistical data assimilation is a promising approach to parameter estimation. / text

Florida's Department of Transportation requires design storm tide hydrographs for coastal waters surrounding tidal inlets along the coast of Florida. These hydrographs are used as open ocean boundary conditions for local bridge scour models. At present, very little information is available on the effect that tidal inlets have on these open coast storm tide hydrographs. Furthermore, current modeling practice enforces a single design hydrograph along the open coast boundary for bridge scour models. This thesis expands on these concepts and provides a more fundamental understanding on both of these modeling areas. A numerical parameter study is undertaken to elucidate the influence of tidal inlets on open coast storm tide hydrographs. Four different inlet-bay configurations are developed based on a statistical analysis of existing tidal inlets along the Florida coast. The length and depth of the inlet are held constant in each configuration, but the widths are modified to include the following four inlet profiles: 1) average Florida inlet width; 2) 100 meter inlet width; 3) 500 meter inlet width; and 4) 1000 meter inlet width. In addition, two unique continental shelf profiles are used to design the ocean bathymetry in the model domains: a bathymetry profile consistent with the west/northeast coast of Florida (wide continental shelf width), and a bathymetry profile similar to the southeast coast of Florida (narrow continental shelf width). The four inlet-bay configurations are paired with each of the bathymetry profiles to arrive at eight model domains employed in this study. Results from these domains are compared to control cases that do not include any inlet-bay system in the computational domain. The ADCIRC-2DDI numerical code is used to obtain water surface elevations for all studies performed herein. The code is driven by astronomic tides at the open ocean boundary, and wind velocities and atmospheric pressure profiles over the surface of the computational domains. Model results clearly indicate that the four inlet-bay configurations do not have a significant impact on the open coast storm tide hydrographs. Furthermore, a spatial variance amongst the storm tide hydrographs is recognized for open coast boundary locations extending seaward from the mouth of the inlet. The results and conclusions presented herein have implications toward future bridge scour modeling efforts. In addition, a hindcast study of Hurricane Ivan in the vicinity of Escambia Bay along the Panhandle of Florida is performed to assess the findings of the numerical parameter study in a real-life scenario. Initially, emphasis is placed on domain scale by comparing model results with historical data for three computational domains: an ocean-based domain, a shelf-based domain, and an inlet-based domain. Results indicate that the ocean-based domain favorably simulates storm surge levels within the bay compared to the other model domains. Furthermore, the main conclusions from the numerical parameter study are verified in the hindcast study: 1) the Pensacola Pass-Escambia Bay system has a minimal effect on the open coast storm tide hydrographs; and 2) the open coast storm tide hydrographs exhibit spatial dependence along typical open coast boundary locations.

This dissertation presents the development of a two-dimensional St. Johns River model and the coupling of hydrodynamic and wave models for the simulation of storm tides. The hydrodynamic model employed for calculating tides and surges is ADCIRC-2DDI (ADvanced CIRCulation Model for Shelves, Coasts and Estuaries, Two-Dimensional Depth Integrated) developed by Luettich et al. (1992). The finite element based model solves the fully nonlinear shallow water equations in the generalized wave continuity form. Hydrodynamic applications are operated with the following forcings: 1) astronomical tides, 2) inflows from tributaries, 3) meteorological effects (winds and pressure), and 4) waves (wind-induced waves). The wave model applied for wind-induced wave simulation is the third-generation SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore), applicable to the estimation of wave parameters in coastal areas and estuaries. The SWAN model is governed by the wave action balance equation driven by wind, sea surface elevations and current conditions (Holthuijsen et al. 2004). The overall work is comprised of three major phases: 1) To develop a model domain that incorporates the entire East Coast of the United States, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea, while honing in on the St. Johns River area; 2) To employ output from the SWAN model with the ADCIRC model and produce a uni-directional coupling of the two models in order to investigate the effects of the wave radiation stresses; 3) To couple the ADCIRC model with the SWAN model to describe the complete interactions of the two physical processes. Model calibration and comparisons are accomplished in three steps. First, astronomical tide simulation results are calibrated with historical NOS (National Ocean Service) tide data. Second, overland and riverine flows and meteorological effects are included, and computed river levels are compared with the historical NOS water level data. Finally, the storm tides generated by Hurricane Floyd are simulated and compared with historical data. This research results in a prototype for real-time simulation of tides and waves for flash flood and river-stage forecasting efforts of the NWS Forecasting Centers that border coastal areas. The following two main conclusions are reported: 1) regardless of whether one uses uni-coupling or coupling, wind-induced waves result in an approximately 10 – 15 % higher peak storm tide level than without any coupling; and 2) the wave-current interaction described by the coupling model results in decreasing peaks and increasing troughs in the storm tide hydrograph. Two main corollary conclusions are also drawn from a 122-day hindcast for the period spanning June 1 – October 1, 2005. First, wind forcing for the St. Johns River is equal to or greater than that of astronomic tides and generally supersedes the impact of inflows, while pressure variations have a minimal impact. Secondly, water levels inside the St. Johns River depend on the wind forcings in the deep ocean; however, if one applies an elevation hydrograph boundary condition from a large-scale domain model to a local-scale domain model the results are highly accurate.