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The Economics of Processing Ethanol at Louisiana Sugar Mills: a Three Part Economic Analysis of Feedstocks, Risk, Business Strategies, and UncertaintyDarby, Paul Michael 14 October 2011 (has links)
The development of an efficient processing infrastructure is critical for the budding cellulosic ethanol industry. Developing a diverse feedstock portfolio is one crucial part of this process which can lead towards economically feasible cellulosic ethanol production. Cellulosic ethanol production requires the production and transportation of large quantities of biomass. Sugarcane and other dense grasses offer a compelling path towards a successful biomass supply chain. The Louisiana sugar belt already has an infrastructure adapted to the task of biomass supply, and taking advantage of this is one key way that a cellulosic ethanol plant can benefit from the regions endowment. Additionally, the area has very large and sophisticated biomass processing facilities in the form of sugar mills. Finally, production of renewable energy from biomass is an area that is filled with economic uncertainty, both from the market and from economic policy. Dealing with this uncertainty will be crucial to any firm that attempts to operate in the cellulosic ethanol industry in the foreseeable future.
This study focuses on several possibilities for aiding the development of the cellulosic ethanol industry, including feedstock development and building upon and within existing agricultural infrastructure. The Louisiana sugarcane belt is the target area of the study, which concentrates on sugarcane bagasse, energy cane, and sweet sorghum as cellulosic feedstocks.
This study examines several possible scenarios and feedstock combinations, finding that a combination of sugarcane bagasse, energy cane, and sweet sorghum could supply a profitable cellulosic ethanol plant situated in the Louisiana sugar belt. By collocating with a sugar mill, a cellulosic ethanol plant can gain further advantage in the form of reusing capital and other fixed costs. This collocation is found to offer substantial benefits to both the cellulosic ethanol processor and the sugar mill, offering a diversified revenue stream, which enhances both operations.
Finally, by employing real options analysis to the question of uncertainty in the market, it is found that a cellulosic ethanol plant can separate feedstock decisions from production and capacity decisions in a manner that mitigates downside potential from at least some types of market and policy shocks. This is found to greatly enhance the value of the firm in cases where unpredictable negative shocks occur
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Economics of U.S. Government Debt AccumulationGarcia Jimenez, Carlos Ignacio 08 November 2011 (has links)
<p>The United States of America is an indebted nation in the early years of the new millennium, changing from $469 billion in 1973 to $14 trillion in 2010, as spending is justified on the basis that it promotes GDP growth which in turn increases societal benefits. Despite the benefits of debt, its effectiveness and the transmission mechanisms of fiscal policy are still on debate. Consequently, the economic effects of U.S. government debt accumulation are studied in three empirical research articles. </p>
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The dissertation is composed of five chapters. The first chapter is an introduction wherein the problem statement, the purpose, objectives and justifications are discussed. Then, the three articles are presented. The analyses used dynamic econometric models and data in the post Bretton Woods system of monetary management. Finally, the results are summarized in the fifth chapter.</p>
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The first article studied the effects of government debt on employment and the unemployment rate. The results indicate that debt has positive effects on employed labor in the economy in the long run, and it was found effective at retaining and decreasing the unemployment rate. Moreover, an unemployment rate shock produced a hump-shaped response of government debt. The second article studied the effects of government debt on exports. The causality tests did not provide evidence to support a relationship among those variables; however, the response of exports to a debt shock was positive and hump-shaped. Finally, the third article studied the transmission of U.S. government debt shocks into the Mexican economy; the results indicate that debt produces positive externalities as its GDP grows. Moreover, Mexican GDP is favored by increasing U.S. GDP; furthermore, a positive U.S. employment shock produced a hump-shaped response of Mexican GDP.</p>
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In conclusion, U.S. government debt depreciates the currency which leads to price fluctuations of output and the inputs of production; in turn, the economy is likely to experience growth in exports, GDP, and employment that favors the economic growth of Mexico through trade.</p>
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Finally, future research endeavors in the economics of government debt accumulation may contemplate to study the cooperative interdependence among political institutions involved in fiscal and economic policies. </p>
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Exchange Rate Volatility and Bilateral Agricultural Trade Flows: The Case of the United States and OECD CountriesKafle, Kashi Ram 09 November 2011 (has links)
The abandonment of fixed exchange rate systems has caused exchange rate movements to become a major concern for traders, policy makers and researchers. During the previous four decades of floating exchange rates, numerous studies have been conducted to determine whether exchange rate volatility affected international trade flows. Researchers have not yet reached a general consensus as to the magnitude and direction of the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade flows. This study documents the effect of exchange rate volatility and real exchange rates on bilateral agricultural exports, imports and total trade flows between the United States and OECD countries. The effect of exchange rate volatility is estimated both separately from and in combination with the real exchange rate. In addition, implementation of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) and use of the Euro as a national currency (Euro) are included as dummy variables and their effect on trade flows is determined. This study uses panel data, which contains 28 cross-sections and 1148 observations, for bilateral trade flows between the United States and OECD countries from 1970 to 2010. Data analysis is performed as guided by the gravity model which assumes trade flows to be directly proportional to economic mass and inversely proportional to geographical distance. Based on the gravity model, the ordinary least squares procedure is applied as the fixed effect one-way procedure for panel data. Effects of exchange rate volatility and the real exchange rate on agricultural, non-agricultural and total exports, imports and trade (exports +imports) flows were found to be statistically significant and negative. Although we were able to replicate the reportedly established notion that exchange rate volatility has an adverse effect on international trade flows, the negative effect that the real exchange rate has on trade flows is a novel finding and bears further investigation. It is found that exchange rate volatility has a greater impact on the agricultural sector, while the real exchange rate has a greater impact on the non-agricultural sector. Effects of FTAs and the Euro are always positive, with FTAs having a greater impact on the agricultural sector and the Euro on the non-agricultural sector.
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Factors Influencing Price Volatility on Soybeans Futures PricesGavilanez Hernandez, Diego J 10 January 2012 (has links)
Recent unexpected changes (mid-2007- Aug 2011) in agricultural commodity markets have led stakeholders to ask if the volatility of futures prices currently observed are still the result of traditional fundamentals. Consequently, the purpose of this research was to identify those factors that affect monthly soybeans futures price volatility. To accomplish this study, four relevant factors are explored. First, the integration between energy and agricultural markets is accounted for via oil spot prices, as well as a dummy variable to account for the shift in the U.S renewable fuel policy since 2007. Second, the increasing consumption of commodities from China is analyzed by measuring their imports of soybeans from Argentina, Brazil, and the U.S. Third, U.S monetary policy is examined by including a U.S dollar index compared to currencies from China (Yuan), Brazil (Real), and Argentina (Peso), which are the main producers, consumers and traders of soybeans. Finally, financial speculation is analyzed by the number of speculative funds (mutual and index funds) available for public investors.
Evidence was found that the variability of oil spot prices, soybean imports to China, and the number of index funds are able to explain monthly soybeans future price volatility, from September 2006 to August 2011. Although U.S renewable fuel policy is included in the analysis, there is no statistical evidence of its influence on monthly soybeans futures prices. Similarly, there is no evidence that the U.S dollar index and the number of mutual funds are able to explain past values of soybeans futures price volatility. Excessive volatility in futures price may cause problems for those utilizing futures markets in their business operation, as well as for consumers. While the increasing risk has led to inefficient resource allocation for producers, merchandisers, and speculators, high prices have influenced the food security of developing countries with lower incomes, i.e. affecting the ability of lower income households to get access to soy products used for human consumption.
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Economic and Attitudinal Perspectives of the Recreational For-Hire Fishing Industry in the U.S. Gulf of MexicoSavolainen, Michelle 15 March 2012 (has links)
Socioeconomic and policy information is important to fisheries management in order to assess potential social and economic impacts of proposed fishing regulations. Previous surveys which collect this type of data for the recreational for-hire (RFH) fishing industry in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico were conducted in 1987 and 1997. The third Gulf-wide survey was conducted in 2010 to update the socioeconomic and policy data available on the RFH industry. More specifically, the survey collected captain, vessel, and trip characteristics, firm and trip financial data, targeted species, and opinions on policy issues and hurricane impacts.
State license information indicated that 3,315 captains were licensed to operate in the Gulf in 2009. Surveys were sent to 2,305 captains between March and June 2010. Overall, 689 responses were received with an approximate response rate of 33 percent. Because survey administration paralleled events of the Deepwater Horizon blowout and oil spill, data was examined for evidence of recall bias through the use of Discriminant Analysis and logistic regression analysis. These assessments attempted to predict when surveys were completed by examining respondent, operating, and financial characteristics. Evidence of recall bias was not found, and no adjustments were made to financial data.
Respondents were categorized using effort and license information into head, charter, and guide boat operating classes. Results of the survey are presented through costs, earnings, and attitudinal profiles for operating classes on the Gulf and state/regional levels. Statistical differences of means between operating classes and states/regions were examined using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and Kruskal-Wallis tests. Data and results presented under this study constitute the most comprehensive socioeconomic and policy data currently available on the Gulf RFH fishing industry.
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Economic Assessment of Rapid Land-Building Technologies for Coastal RestorationWang, Hua 16 March 2012 (has links)
In the wake of recent hurricanes, coastal managers in Louisiana have begun integrating infrastructure protection and habitat restoration. Concurrent with this change, emphasis has been placed on marsh creation (MC) techniques that rely on mechanical dredges and sediment conveyance pipelines to rapidly build new land. The costs and benefits of this approach are increasingly compared to more natural and slower methods using fresh water diversions (FWD), yet such comparisons are not typically inclusive of time and risk considerations.
Data for more than 300 coastal wetland restoration projects were evaluated for the statistical development of generic acreage trajectories and restoration cost models. These models were incorporated into a benefit-cost construct and sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the relative importance of specific project attributes related to time, distance, project scale, discount rate, and site-specific land loss rates. Benefit uncertainty was addressed through incorporation of climatological and political risk within an expected valuation framework. Case studies were examined for MC and FWD projects under hypothetical acreage targets and locations.
As expected, project period and scale were found to be inversely correlated with unit cost ($/acre). Likewise, discount rate, distance from source material to project site, and specific sub-costs associated with dredge mobilization were positively related to unit cost. The degree of these effects, however, differed greatly between the two generic models. The most pronounced finding is that the relatively slow rate of restoration from FWD projects negatively affects project feasibility. Furthermore, the incorporation of project-specific types of risk (hurricane impacts and social constraints) was found to compound the problems associated with slower performing projects.
Perhaps most importantly, simulations for both FWD and MC projects indicated that required break-even annual benefits were considerably larger than actual benefits reported as accounting from similar projects in the non-market ecosystem valuation literature. This finding suggests the need for a reevaluation of current spending to ensure the most cost-effective combination of attributes in project selection. The decision framework provided here allows restoration managers to increase efficiency in the allocation of limited funding for coastal restoration.
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Three Essays on the Labor Allocation Decisions of the Modern Farm FamilyD'Antoni, Jeremy Michael 10 November 2011 (has links)
The goal of this dissertation is to address the role of government payments in the allocation of off-farm labor through three essays. Government payments have been a part of agriculture since 1933 and at no time has the government stated a policy objective of decreasing the agricultural labor force. Using time series data and new econometric techniques, the first essay finds agricultural policy may have an unintended impact on labor migration. Specifically, we find that government payments increased labor migration from the farm. From 1939 to 2007, increased direct government payments resulted in greater migration of labor from agriculture.
The second essay assesses the degree of differentiation between family and hired labor. This addresses the ease at which decoupled government payments can subsidize off-farm labor. Intuitively, these forms of farm labor should have different impacts on production. We test this assumption by estimating the elasticity of substitution between hired and family labor using the ARMS dataset. The results provide little evidence to support the homogeneity assumption and further indicate that the elasticity of substitution is unitary under most scenarios.
The final essay addresses the determinants of off-farm labor supply by incorporating both modern issues and techniques. The goal of this research is to determine the impact of health insurance coverage and government payments on the off-farm labor supply of the farm operator and spouse. We first test for dependence in the off-farm labor allocation of the operator and spouse using copulas. We then account for endogeneity in the health insurance variable and jointly estimate off-farm labor supply using a bivariate tobit model. The data used in this research is from 2006-2008 Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS). The results of this study show that the off-farm labor supply of the operator and spouse is positively correlated and that there is a highly significant, positive impact of off-farm insurance coverage on the hours worked off-farm. The results further demonstrate the importance of fringe benefits as a component of the total wage and find significant evidence that greater government payments decrease the number of hours that both the operator and spouse work off-farm.
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Examining the Relationship between the Exchange Rate, Foreign Direct Investment and TradeParajuli, Shanta 20 April 2012 (has links)
Extensive research has been carried out on the relationships among foreign direct investment (FDI), exports, the exchange rate, and economic growth. However, these research findings are mixed and inconclusive. Therefore, further research and discussion are needed on this topic. This study focused on Mexico, since it is one of the major FDI recipient countries in Latin America and much of its trade is a result of its free trade agreements. This study examines the relationship between FDI, exports, and economic growth in the context of FDI from developed to developing countries (Mexico).
The second chapter analyzes the relationship of FDI with the level of the exchange rate, exchange rate volatility, and exchange rate expectations during the period from 1994 to 2008. The analysis revealed a significant impact of level of exchange rates and exchange rate expectations on FDI flows. Regional trade agreements, such as the European Union (EU) and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), were important factors to attract FDI.
The third chapter examines the long-run relationship between U.S. FDI and U.S exports to Mexico from 1988Q1 to 2008Q4. This analysis found a complementary (positive) relationship between FDI and exports. However, the strength of the relationship differs with different types of FDI. The analysis further revealed a weak complementary relationship with exports of processed food and a strong positive relationship with manufacturing exports. The study also showed a significant impact of NAFTA on manufacturing and total FDI and an insignificant impact on processed food FDI.
Chapter four examined Granger causality among GDP, exports, and FDI in Mexico for the period of 1970 to 2008. The causality was tested from the bivariate to the multivariate framework using Toda and Yamamoto (1995) and Doland and Lutkepohl (1996) (TYDL) methodologies. An important finding in this study is the Ganger causality from gross fixed capital formation and labor force to imports. The results suggest that the Granger causality between GDP and exports; FDI and GDP; exports and FDI observed in two, three or four variable frameworks are through a channel of imports.
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Factors Influencing Adoption of VSH Queens in the Honey Bee Breeding IndustryLeiby, Julie 31 March 2014 (has links)
There are many threats that contribute to the decline in honey bee colonies around the United States; among them is the Varroa mite, Varroa destructor. The Varroa mite is a significant threat to honey bees and, by extension, beekeepers across the United States. It is suspected to be one of the main contributors to the increase in colony collapse and the decline in bee numbers and the beekeeping industry (Danka, May 2013). Fifty-five percent of beekeepers exited beekeeping between 1987 and 2002 (USDA). Although honey production continued to decrease through 2007, the number of beekeepers entering beekeeping had increased (USDA). In 2006, the Varroa Sensitive Hygiene (VSH) genetic line of bees was developed in response to the destruction associated with the Varroa mite. The hygienic behavior of this line of bees helps reduce susceptibility of colonies to Varroa mites and results in stronger colonies with increasing bee populations (Rinderer, 2010). Relatively little information exists on the adoption level of VSH technology in the beekeeping community and beekeepers perceptions of VSH technology. The objective of this study is to identify and discuss factors that significantly influence the decision of adopting VSH technology. Using data collected from a sample of 228 queen breeders across the United States that previously adopted other Varroa sensitive technologies, a probit model is used to analyze the factors involved in influencing the adoption of VSH queens by queen breeders. Factors analyzed include sources of information available, risk preference, sales attributes, demographic information, and income. Results indicate that education level, being risk averse and income all had a significant influence on the adoption decision.
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The Worlds of Agriculture in Asia: Agricultural and Economic DevelopmentAmrinto, Lorna Econg 02 April 2014 (has links)
The agro-fundamentalists consider agriculture as the engine of growth while agro-pessimists argue that economic growth causes agricultural productivity. It is the main engine of growth in agriculture-based countries; less important in transforming economies; and plays the same role as other tradable sectors in urbanized countries (World Bank, 2008). This work revisits agricultures role in the development process within the experience of Asia where the majority of the population heavily depends on agriculture.
Chapter 2 presents the results of causality tests between agriculture and economic growth in bivariate systems using the TYDL methodology. For some of agriculture-based Asia (Bhutan, Lao, Cambodia and Pakistan), there is evidence to support the agro-fundamentalists view. Mongolias economic growth drives agricultural growth. There is no causality running from either direction for Nepal, Vietnam and Bangladesh. No causal relationship between agriculture and economic growth is evident in the transforming economies of Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand. Indian and Chinese agriculture contribute to economic growth while the Malaysian economy shows evidence of bidirectional causality.
Chapter 3 investigates the impact of agriculture on economic development in the context of an open economy, as measured by the accession to WTO and Trade Freedom Index, by employing an OLS method. The theory predicts that the openness of economies negatively affects the gains in the economic growth from improvement in agricultural productivity. However, this effect is not strong enough to cause a long-run negative relationship between economic growth and agricultural productivity. Further, the effect does not bring large differences in the gains from agricultural productivity between the open and closed economies in most of Asia.
Chapter 4 examines the role of agriculture in the Korean economy as it transitioned from a predominantly agricultural to an urbanized economy by employing a VARX method. The impact of agriculture is significantly different between the transforming and urbanized stage with the former producing a greater impact. The effect of agriculture is also dependent on the countrys stages of economic growth, i.e., Korean agriculture contributes to economic growth in transforming Korea, but not in an agriculture-based and urbanized economy.
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