Contemporary observations show an increase in the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) since the early 21st century. Located near the critical sites of oceanic deep convection and deep water formation, the melting of the GrIS has the potential to directly impact the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) by freshening ocean surface waters in these regions. The majority of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models project a decline in AMOC strength by 10-50% during the 21st century, in response to the increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. However, due to the simple treatment of polar ice sheets and the lack of a dynamical ice sheet component in these models, these projections likely underestimated the impacts of the GrIS melt, leading to uncertainty in projecting future AMOC evolution and climate change around Greenland. To better understand the impact of the GrIS melt on the AMOC, we perform a series of 21st century projection runs with a state-of-the-art Earth System Model-GFDL ESM2Mb. We consider a medium and a high Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively). Unlike the CMIP5-standard RCP runs which included only radiative forcing, the new model experiments are also forced with additional and potentially more realistic meltwater discharge from the GrIS. This meltwater discharge is estimated based on a model-based relationship between the GrIS surface melt and the 500hPa atmospheric temperature anomalies over Greenland. The model simulations indicate that compared to the RCP4.5-only and RCP8.5-only projections, the additional melt water from the GrIS can further weaken the AMOC, but with a relatively small magnitude. The reason is that radiative forcing already weakens the deep convection and deep water formation in the North Atlantic, therefore limiting the magnitude of further weakening of AMOC due to the additional meltwater. The modeling results suggest that the AMOC's sensitivity to freshwater forcing due to the GrIS melt is highly dependent on the location and strength of oceanic deep convection sites in ESM2Mb as well as the pathways of the meltwater towards these regions. The additional meltwater contributes to the minimum surface warming (so-called "warming hole") south of Greenland. These simulations with ESM2Mb contribute to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Model Intercomparison Project (AMOCMIP), a community effort between international modeling centers to investigate the impacts of the melting of the GrIS on the AMOC and quantify the associated uncertainty.

The objective of this study is to investigate the effect of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) changes on tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere system via oceanic and atmospheric processes. A suite of numerical simulations have been conducted and the results show that both oceanic and atmospheric circulation changes induced by AMOC changes can have a profound impact on tropical sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS) conditions, but their dominance varies in different parts of the tropical oceans. The oceanic process has a dominant control on SST and SSS response to AMOC changes in the South Tropical Atlantic, while the atmospheric teleconnection is mainly responsible for SST and SSS changes over the North Tropical Atlantic and Pacific Oceans during the period of reduced AMOC. The finding has significant implication for the interpretation of the paleotemperature reconstructions over the southern Caribbean and the western Tropical Atlantic regions during the Younger Dryas. It suggests that the strong spatial inhomogeneity of the SST change revealed by the proxy records in these regions may be attributed to the competing oceanic and atmospheric processes that dominate the SST response. Similar mechanisms may also explain the reconstructed paleo-salinity change in the tropical Atlantic, which shows a basin-wide increase in SSS during the Younger Dryas, according to recent paleo climate studies. Finally, we show that atmospheric teleconnection induced by the surface cooling of the North Atlantic and the North Pacific in response to a weakened AMOC, is a leading physical mechanism that dictates the behavior of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response to AMOC changes. However, depending on its origin, the atmospheric teleconnection can affect ENSO variability in different ways. The atmospheric process associated with the North Atlantic cooling tends to enhance El Nino occurrence with a deepened mean thermocline depth in the eastern Pacific, whereas the atmospheric process associated with the North Pacific cooling tends to produce more La Nina events with a reduced mean thermocline depth in the eastern Pacific. Preliminary analysis suggests that the change in ENSO characteristics is associated with the change in internal atmospheric variability caused by the surface cooling in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Complex nature of the underlying dynamics concerning the effect of the AMOC on ENSO calls for further investigation into this problem.

The strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is believed to be associated with changes in surface buoyancy in the subpolar North Atlantic, which naturally leads to a notion that the AMOC has been weakening under global warming. Yet, a variety source of observations and its assimilation into ocean circulation models have not supported such an AMOC decline so far. In this study, an aspect that has not been paid attention, regarding the maintenance of the AMOC strength, is explored: storm activity in the subpolar North Atlantic (NA). An analysis using reanalysis data shows that the wintertime turbulent heat flux variability in the LS deep convection region is largely controlled by a small number of extreme heat flux event days, suggesting a pivotal role of winter storms in prompting LS deep-water formation. A set of forced ocean-ice model simulations, in which synoptic winter storm activity associated with these event days is either suppressed or doubled over the subpolar NA, confirms the above analysis as the altered storm activity results in a substantial change in LS convection and the AMOC strength. These experiments also show an upward AMOC trend during the late twentieth century, the degree of which is to some extent related to the intensity of storm activity in the LS. The upward AMOC trend found in the first part of the dissertation opposes to a downward AMOC trend in the twentieth century coupled model simulations employing the identical ocean component. An analysis suggests that contrast to the ocean-ice model, storm activity in the LS convection region and associated heat flux decreases during the late twentieth century. Although there is also a buoyancy increase over the LS, the wintertime heat flux decrease appears to be a more dominant factor for a decrease in convection in the LS, as an increasing freshwater input from Arctic/Subarctic Ocean bypasses the interior LS along the western boundary current. Therefore, the downward AMOC trend in the coupled model can be linked ultimately to the decreasing storm activity over the LS. This study therefore suggests that storm activity over the major convection regions needs to be paid further attention in assessing AMOC variations, including long-term trend in response to a warming scenario, in future studies.

Cette thèse s’intéresse au courant profond de bord ouest dans l’Atlantique Nord, le Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC). Ce courant transporte des eaux denses, formées dans la gyre subpolaire, vers l’équateur et constitue une des composantes majeures de la circulation méridienne Atlantique, l’AMOC (pour Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation). Cette circulation contribue au transport de chaleur vers les hautes latitudes et stabilise le climat actuel. L’AMOC calculée dans différents modèles de circulation générale de l’océan présente une diversité dans son intensité, sa structure spatiale et sa variabilité temporelle. De nombreux facteurs peuvent expliquer cette hétérogénéité de réponses, dont les incertitudes qui subsistent sur le lien entre la formation d’eau dense par convection dans la gyre subpolaire, qui contribue à connecter les branches supérieure et inférieure de l’AMOC, et l’intensité de l’AMOC aux moyennes latitudes. Ces incertitudes proviennent en grande partie d’une méconnaissance de la circulation profonde dans l’Atlantique Nord, car difficile à observer et souvent incorrecte dans les modèles d’océan de faible résolution spatiale.L’objectif de cette thèse est donc d’étudier la dynamique du DWBC et son influence sur l’AMOC, à l’aide de simulations numériques réalistes d’un modèle de circulation générale de l’océan (NEMO). Dans cette optique, trois configurations de résolution horizontale croissante ont été mises en place en utilisant l’outil de raffinement de grille AGRIF : une grille globale de référencer à 1/2◦ de résolution (configuration ORCA), à laquelle a été ajouté une première grille raffinée à 1/8◦ couvrant l’Atlantique nord (configuration ERNA) incluant elle-même une seconde grille à 1/32◦ centrée sur la gyre subpolaire (configuration FER). ERNA et FER sont deux configurations originales, par la prise en compte du modèle de glace de mer dans l’emboîtement des grilles, et par la résolution horizontale de FER dans la gyre subpolaire.Dans un premier temps, nous étudions l’influence de la résolution horizontale sur la circulation moyenne en Atlantique Nord avec un intérêt particulier pour l’AMOC en contrastant les simulations issues des configurations ORCA et ERNA. L’augmentation de la résolution se traduit par l’amélioration de la dynamique des courants de bord ouest, en surface et également en profondeur. En effet, le transport du DWBC s’intensifie de l’ordre de 8Sv dans la gyre subpolaire, ce qui est en partie lié à une meilleure représentation de l’écoulement des eaux denses en provenance des Mers Nordiques. En outre, alors que dans ORCA le DWBC s’écoule vers le sud principalement le long de la ride médio-Atlantique, dans ERNA la route le long du bord ouest est privilégiée avec une circulation secondaire à l’intérieur de l’inetrgyre, ce qui est en meilleur accord avec les observations. Le chemin suivi par le DWBC le long du talus continental permet une intensification de l’AMOC et de la localisation de son maximum vers 35 ̊N. Ce résultat tend à réduire l’influence de la convection aux hautes latitudes sur l’intensité de l4AMOC par l’intermédiaire de l’interaction des courants de surface et de fond.Nous nous sommes intéressés par la suite à la structure dynamique et thermohaline du DWBC, en lien avec la représentation de la méso-échelle, dans la mer du Labrador, en utilisant la configuration FER. Dans cette configuration qui résout explicitement les processus de méso-échelle dans la gyre subpolaire, la dérive en température et salinité est nettement moins importante que dans ERNA. De plus, la structure verticale du courant de bord, notamment sa barotropisation entre l’est et l’ouest sde la section AR7W dans la mer du Labrador, est en très bon accord avec les observations. A partir d’une équation simplifiée de la vorticité relative, nous avons cherché à identifier les processus principaux qui contrôlent la dynamique du DWBC. Il ressort de cette analyse que le stretching associé aux vitesses […] / The present study tackles the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC) dynamics in the North Atlantic basin as its impact on the AMOC. The DWBC advects dense water masses equatorward, produced in the subpolar gyre, and is one of the major component of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This circulation contributes to the northward heat transport to high latitudes and allows to stabilise climate. When computing the AMOC in different ocean general circulation models (OGCM), results cover a wide range of intensity, spatial shape and temporal variability. Such response diversity is due to several factors. One of them is the remaining uncertainty on the link between dense water formation due to convection in the subpolar gyre, which contributes to connect the AMOC upper and lower branches, and the AMOC intensity at mid-latitudes. Those uncertainties are largely due to the knowledge gap of the deep circulation in North Atlantic because its direct observation is difficult and incorrectly reproduced in ocean models with a low spatial resolution. The methodology used rely on realistic numerical simulations based on the NEMO ocean general circulation model. Three configurations with an increasing spatial resolution have been developped using the grid refinement tool AGRIF : a global grid at 1/2◦ resolution (ORCA configuration), within which a first refined grid at 1/8◦ covering the whole North Atlantic (ERNA configuration) in which a second grid at 1/32◦ over the subpolar gyre (FER configuration). Both ERNA and FER are advanced and original by two aspects; they include a Sea-Ice model within embedded grids and FER reaches a high horizontal resolution over the subpolar gyre. We study the spatial horizontal resolution impact on the mean circulation in the North Atlantic with a focus on the AMOC contrasting simulations obtained with ORCA and ERNA solutions. Increasing the resolution improves the western boundary current dynamics at surface and depth. Indeed, the DWBC transport is intensified by 8Sv in the subpolar gyre partly due to a better representation of overflows coming from Nordic Seas through the Denmark Strait. Furthermore in ORCA the DWBC flows to the south along the Mid-Atlantic ridge ; in ERNA the flow along western continental shelf is dominant while a secondary circulation within the subpolar gyre arises being in better agreement with observations. The path followed by the DWBC along the continental shelf allows an interaction between surface and deep currents which seems to result both in an AMOC intensification and a maxima located close to 35 ̊N. This result tends to limit the influence of the convection, occuring at high latitudes, on the AMOC intensity at mid latitudes, often raised, and shed light on a modulation process of the AMOC intensity through the surface and deep currents interaction. We then addressed the thermohaline and the dynamical structure of the DWBC, asssocia- ted with the mesoscale representation, within the Labrador Sea using the FER configuration. With this configuration, which solved explicitly mesoscale eddies in the subpolar gyre, tempera- ture and salinity drift are clearly reduced compare to ERNA. Furthermore the vertical DWBC structure, especially its barotropisation from the eatstern to western side of the AR7W section within the Labrador Sea, is in very good agrement with observations. Using a simplified equation for relative vorticity, we try to identify the main processes handling the DWBC dynamics. The analysis reveals that the stretching associated with vertical velocities above topography and exchanges between isopycnal layers within boundary current dominate the vorticity balance. We also identify two areas within the DWBC where diapynal flux occur : along the Labrador Current on the western side of the Labrador Sea and seaward of Cape Desolation where eddy activity is marked. These results are close to two previous studies based on conceptual model and […]

Experiments with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model using idealized topographies were run to investigate aspects of the role that the lateral ocean constraints play in the climate. The experiments consider an idealized planet covered with a constant deep ocean, where one-grid-wide land barriers were gradually added. The series of experiments allowed the investigation of many aspects of the coupled system equilibrium and variability, ending with an evaluation of the effects of the Indonesian Throughflow. Rather than to investigate the throughflow\'s impacts in modern climate, which has been largely explored in numerical experiments in the past decades, the throughflow is investigated in an alternative climate, argued as a possible scenario during ice-age periods. It was found that the change in the hemispheric water source of the throughflow affects many aspects of its impact as it is known for modern climate. In summary, the throughflow acts within the inter-basin seesaw in the sense to restore the previous phase of the inter-basin seesaw. / Experimentos com um modelo acoplado oceano-continente-atmosfera-gelo marinho e topografias idealizadas foram empregados para investigar os impactos que contornos laterais nos oceanos desempenham no clima. Os experimentos consideram um planeta idealizado, coberto por um oceano de profundidade constante, onde barreiras com um ponto de grade de espessura foram gradualmente adicionadas. Esta série de experimentos permitiram investigar vários aspectos do sistema acoplado em termos de seu equilíbrio e variabilidade, finalizando com a análise dos efeitos devidos ao Fluxo da Indonésia. Ao invés de investigar os impactos que este fluxo tem sobre o clima atual, o que tem sido bastante explorado em experimentos numéricos nas últimas décadas, a investigação é feita num clima alternativo, que configura um possível cenário durante períodos glaciais. Foi encontrado que a mudança na origem das águas que compõem o Fluxo da Indonésia altera em vários aspectos seus impactos como são conhecidos no clima atual. Em suma, o Fluxo da Indonésia atua dentro de um mecanismo de gangorra inter-hemisférica na circulação termoalina no sentido de reestabelecer a fase anterior desse mecanismo tipo gangorra.

Experiments with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model using idealized topographies were run to investigate aspects of the role that the lateral ocean constraints play in the climate. The experiments consider an idealized planet covered with a constant deep ocean, where one-grid-wide land barriers were gradually added. The series of experiments allowed the investigation of many aspects of the coupled system equilibrium and variability, ending with an evaluation of the effects of the Indonesian Throughflow. Rather than to investigate the throughflow\'s impacts in modern climate, which has been largely explored in numerical experiments in the past decades, the throughflow is investigated in an alternative climate, argued as a possible scenario during ice-age periods. It was found that the change in the hemispheric water source of the throughflow affects many aspects of its impact as it is known for modern climate. In summary, the throughflow acts within the inter-basin seesaw in the sense to restore the previous phase of the inter-basin seesaw. / Experimentos com um modelo acoplado oceano-continente-atmosfera-gelo marinho e topografias idealizadas foram empregados para investigar os impactos que contornos laterais nos oceanos desempenham no clima. Os experimentos consideram um planeta idealizado, coberto por um oceano de profundidade constante, onde barreiras com um ponto de grade de espessura foram gradualmente adicionadas. Esta série de experimentos permitiram investigar vários aspectos do sistema acoplado em termos de seu equilíbrio e variabilidade, finalizando com a análise dos efeitos devidos ao Fluxo da Indonésia. Ao invés de investigar os impactos que este fluxo tem sobre o clima atual, o que tem sido bastante explorado em experimentos numéricos nas últimas décadas, a investigação é feita num clima alternativo, que configura um possível cenário durante períodos glaciais. Foi encontrado que a mudança na origem das águas que compõem o Fluxo da Indonésia altera em vários aspectos seus impactos como são conhecidos no clima atual. Em suma, o Fluxo da Indonésia atua dentro de um mecanismo de gangorra inter-hemisférica na circulação termoalina no sentido de reestabelecer a fase anterior desse mecanismo tipo gangorra.

Submitted by Biblioteca de Pós-Graduação em Geoquímica BGQ (bgq@ndc.uff.br) on 2016-09-05T17:54:10Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Cruz, A.P.S Doutorado_2016.pdf: 5094588 bytes, checksum: c2d2f2c5452d77b62cfc4edc84e03851 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-09-05T17:54:10Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Cruz, A.P.S Doutorado_2016.pdf: 5094588 bytes, checksum: c2d2f2c5452d77b62cfc4edc84e03851 (MD5) / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico / Universidade Federal Fluminense. Instituto de Química. Programa de Pós-Graduação em Geociências - Geoquímica. Niterói, RJ / A fim de determinar a influência da dinâmica das massas d'água no fornecimento de nutrientes para o Atlântico Equatorial Oeste e as interações continente-oceano foi analisado a concentração elementar de carbono, a composição isotópica da matéria orgânica (δ13C e δ15N), assim como a composição isotópica de foraminíferos bentônicos e planctônicos (δ13C e δ18O), além da concentração de fósforo total e carbonato no sedimento coletado na plataforma continental do Nordeste do Brasil. Durante os últimos 30kaAP foi possível identificar três diferentes fases relativas as modificações nas massas de água e no aporte de material proveniente do continente. Na primeira fase, o fornecimento de nutrientes foi baixo devido a mistura de massas d’água pobres em nutrientes (baixo δ13C bentônico), o qual promoveu uma redução no δ15N devido a redução do influxo de nutrientes para a zona fótica. A segunda fase mostrou uma drástica redução no δ15N e um aumento da entrada de material terrestre na região (aumento no C/N e baixo δ13C) devido ao deslocamento da ITCZ para sul, aumentando as taxas de precipitação no Nordeste do Brasil. Na terceira fase, o fornecimento de nutrientes para a zona fótica foi mais alta (alto δ13C dos planctônicos), levando ao aumento na produtividade da região e, consequentemente, a um aumento no δ15N sedimentar. Assim, pode-se dizer que as mudanças nas massas d’água tem uma larga influência no fornecimento de nutrientes dentro da nutriclina e que as variações no δ15N podem estar associadas ao fornecimento de nutrientes no oceano e pela entrada de material terrestre durante as mudanças climáticas abruptas. O aumento na precipitação e as mudanças na hidrodinâmica das correntes oceânicas influenciam diretamente na qualidade e quantidade de materiais que chegam aos oceanos. Durante o glacial (30-19ka AP), foi possível identificar uma mistura de fontes de materiais que se depositaram na área de estudo e uma redução da hidrodinâmica das correntes oceânicas levando a um aumento na acumulação de sedimentos finos na região, devido a redução do fluxo da CNB. Também foi possível evidenciar uma redução da temperatura da superfície do mar (TSM) e um aumento da salinidade ligados a expansão do volume de gelo e a aumento das taxas de evaporação. O H2 (26-24kaAP) apresentou um pico de aquecimento oceânico e valores máximos de salinidade devido ao colapso da AMOC, o qual provocou uma maior concentração de calor no oceano sul, alterando o ciclo hidrológico pela mudança na posição da ITCZ. A hidrodinâmica, durante o deglacial, foi marcada por um maior transporte de materiais para o oceano profundo, o qual resultou em um aumento no tamanho do grão durante este período. A TSM e a salinidade apresentaram altos valores, principalmente, durante a primeira fase do H1 (17,4-16kaAP), indicando uma concentração de calor e salinidade no oceano sul. Na segunda fase (16-14,4KaAP), ocorreu um aumento considerável no aporte de terrígenos e uma redução na TSM e na salinidade, corroborando com o início do reestabelecimento da circulação meridional do Atlântico e o deslocamento da ITCZ para áreas mais próximas ao Equador. O YD apresentou um aumento no aporte terrígeno e uma redução inicial da TSM e da salinidade, com um posterior aumento. O Holoceno foi caracterizado por um aumento significativo no tamanho do grão devido a maior umidade e hidrodinâmica ocorrida neste período. No entanto, um aumento significativo no tamanho do grão foi evidenciada durante o evento 8,2kaAP, o qual aumentou a hidrodinâmica local devido as maiores taxas de precipitação. Além disso, houve uma redução na TSM e na salinidade devido ao aumento das taxas de precipitação em relação a evaporação, promovendo maior entrada de águas frias e menos salinas no oceano. / In order to analyze the influence of the water masses dynamic in the nutrients supply to the western equatorial Atlantic and the land-ocean interactions was analyzed the elemental concentration of carbon isotopic composition of organic matter (δ13C and δ15N), benthic and planktonic foraminifera (δ13C and δ18O), the total phosphorus and carbonate concentration in sediment recovery on the continental slope off Northeastern Brazil. Over the past 30kaBP was possible to identify three different phases related to water masses distribution and the input of land material. In the first stage, the nutrient supply was low due to the mixing of water masses nutrient-poor (low benthic δ13C), promoting a reduction on δ15N signal due the reduction in nutrient influx. The second stage showed a drastic decrease in δ15N and an increase of terrigenous input (high C/N and Corg values and low δ13Corg signal) as consequence of the southward displacement of Intertropical Convergence Zone, which promoted an increase in the moisture at Northeastern Brazil. During the third stage, the nutrient supply was higher in the photic zone (high planktonic δ13C), leading to increase the productivity of that region, increasing the sedimentary δ15N. Thus, we argue that water masses changes have a large influence in nutrient influx within the nutricline and these variations in δ15N could be associated with the ocean nutrient supply and terrigenous input during abrupt climate changes. The increase in precipitation and changes in ocean hydrodynamics have influence in the quality and quantity of material that arrives in the oceans. During the glacial, it was possible to identify a mixture of source materials and a reduction of the ocean hydrodynamic, leading to an increase in the accumulation of silt due to reduction of the CNB flow. It was also possible to show a reduction in sea surface temperature (SST) and increasing salinity due to the expansion of ice volume and the increase in evaporation. The H2 (26-24kaBP) showed a peak of ocean warming and maximum salinity values due to the AMOC collapse, which caused a greater concentration of heat in the Southern Ocean, altering the hydrological cycle by displacement of the ITCZ. The hydrodynamic during deglacial was marked by a larger materials input for the deep ocean, which resulted in an increase in grain size during this period. The SST and salinity showed higher values during the first phase of H1 (17.4-16kaBP), indicating a concentration of the heat and salinity in the Southern Ocean. In the second phase (16-14.4KaBP), there was a considerable increase in terrigenous intake and a reduction in SST and salinity, corroborating the beginning of the reestablishment of the southern Atlantic circulation and the displacement of the ITCZ to areas closer to the Equator. The YD experienced an increase in the terrigenous contribution and an initial reduction of SST and salinity, with a subsequent increase in the end of this event. The Holoceno was characterized by a significant increase in grain size due to high moisture and hydrodynamic occurred during this period. However, a significant increase in grain size was observed during 8.2kaAP event, which increased the hydrodynamic due to the larger precipitation rates. In addition, there was a reduction in the SST and salinity due to increased precipitation rates relative to evaporation, promoting greater incoming of cold and less saline water in the ocean.

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) has a central role in the interhemispheric transport of heat and changes in its intensity are known to have profound impact on global climate. Disturbances in the AMOC are also supposedly associated with the past changes in marine productivity and oceanic uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide, which contributed to the global climate changes that led to the termination of the last glacial cycle. Although the South Atlantic Ocean constitutes an important pathway for the return flow of the AMOC, the changing impacts of the AMOC especially in the subtropical western South Atlantic still remain elusive. In this study, high-resolution records of upper water column properties and productivity have been applied to reconstruct the evolution of oceanographic conditions in the subtropical western South Atlantic covering the last 40,000 years. The proxy records employed here are based both on faunal assemblages and on the stable oxygen isotopic composition of planktonic foraminifera from a marine sediment core collected off southern Brazilian continental margin (27°S). The main findings of the present study reveal, for the first time, enhanced primary productivity in the subtropical western South Atlantic during Heinrich Stadials along the last glacial, when the AMOC showed reduced strength. Additionally, this study reveals decreased primary productivity over the Last Glacial Maximum and the Younger Dryas, when the AMOC showed only moderate reductions. The most outstanding productivity decline is depicted after the Holocene inception, when the AMOC recovered its strength. Further, the findings of the present work also reveal that rather overall glacial-like conditions prevailed at the onset of the Holocene, before complete reinvigoration of the AMOC. Full interglacial configuration would only establish at approximately 9,000 years, when the AMOC fully recovered; although such interglacial setting would be abruptly interrupted during the Mid Holocene, accompanying a sudden reduction of the AMOC. Those findings suggest that the impact of the AMOC on the subtropical western South Atlantic would have played a critical role not only over the last glacial, but also throughout the glacial-interglacial transition and even under full interglacial conditions. The main hypothesis of this research is that the observed changes were triggered by the dynamics of the Brazil Current primarily driven by disturbances in the AMOC. / A célula de revolvimento meridional do Atlântico (AMOC) desempenha um papel central no transporte inter-hemisférico de calor e mudanças em sua intensidade têm profundo impacto sobre o clima global. Distúrbios na AMOC supostamente também estariam associados a alterações pretéritas na produtividade marinha e absorção oceânica de dióxido de carbono atmosférico, que contribuíram para mudanças no clima global e levaram à terminação do último ciclo glacial. Embora o Atlântico Sul constitua importante rota para o fluxo de retorno da AMOC, impactos de alterações na AMOC especialmente na porção subtropical do Atlântico Sudoeste ainda permanecem elusivos. Neste estudo, registros de alta resolução de propriedades da camada superior da coluna de água e de produtividade foram utilizados para reconstruir a evolução de condições oceanográficas na porção subtropical do Atlântico Sudoeste ao longo dos últimos 40,000 anos. Os indicadores empregados se baseiam na composição de assembleias faunísticas e de isótopos estáveis de oxigênio em foraminíferos planctônicos de testemunho sedimentar marinho coletado na margem continental sul do Brasil (27°S). Os principais resultados deste estudo revelam, pela primeira vez, aumento de produtividade primária na porção subtropical do Atlântico Sudoeste durante Heinrich Stadials ao longo do último glacial, quando a AMOC apresentou reduzida intensidade. Adicionalmente, o presente estudo revela diminuição de produtividade primária durante o Último Máximo Glacial e Younger Dryas, quando a AMOC apresentou apenas moderada redução. O declínio de produtividade mais proeminente é observado após o início do Holoceno, quando a AMOC recuperou sua intensidade. Os resultados do presente trabalho também revelam que, de modo geral, condições similares ao glacial prevaleceram no princípio do Holoceno, antes de completa retomada da AMOC. Plenas condições interglaciais apenas teriam se estabelecido há cerca de 9,000 anos, quando a AMOC foi completamente revigorada; embora plena configuração interglacial tenha sido abruptamente interrompida em meados do Holoceno, acompanhando repentina redução da AMOC. Estes resultados sugerem que o impacto da AMOC na porção subtropical do Atlântico Sudoeste teria desempenhado um papel crítico não apenas durante o último glacial, mas também ao longo da transição glacial-interglacial e mesmo sob plenas condições interglaciais. A principal hipótese deste estudo é de que as mudanças observadas foram ocasionadas por dinâmicas da Corrente do Brasil primariamente induzidas por distúrbios na AMOC.

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) has a central role in the interhemispheric transport of heat and changes in its intensity are known to have profound impact on global climate. Disturbances in the AMOC are also supposedly associated with the past changes in marine productivity and oceanic uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide, which contributed to the global climate changes that led to the termination of the last glacial cycle. Although the South Atlantic Ocean constitutes an important pathway for the return flow of the AMOC, the changing impacts of the AMOC especially in the subtropical western South Atlantic still remain elusive. In this study, high-resolution records of upper water column properties and productivity have been applied to reconstruct the evolution of oceanographic conditions in the subtropical western South Atlantic covering the last 40,000 years. The proxy records employed here are based both on faunal assemblages and on the stable oxygen isotopic composition of planktonic foraminifera from a marine sediment core collected off southern Brazilian continental margin (27°S). The main findings of the present study reveal, for the first time, enhanced primary productivity in the subtropical western South Atlantic during Heinrich Stadials along the last glacial, when the AMOC showed reduced strength. Additionally, this study reveals decreased primary productivity over the Last Glacial Maximum and the Younger Dryas, when the AMOC showed only moderate reductions. The most outstanding productivity decline is depicted after the Holocene inception, when the AMOC recovered its strength. Further, the findings of the present work also reveal that rather overall glacial-like conditions prevailed at the onset of the Holocene, before complete reinvigoration of the AMOC. Full interglacial configuration would only establish at approximately 9,000 years, when the AMOC fully recovered; although such interglacial setting would be abruptly interrupted during the Mid Holocene, accompanying a sudden reduction of the AMOC. Those findings suggest that the impact of the AMOC on the subtropical western South Atlantic would have played a critical role not only over the last glacial, but also throughout the glacial-interglacial transition and even under full interglacial conditions. The main hypothesis of this research is that the observed changes were triggered by the dynamics of the Brazil Current primarily driven by disturbances in the AMOC. / A célula de revolvimento meridional do Atlântico (AMOC) desempenha um papel central no transporte inter-hemisférico de calor e mudanças em sua intensidade têm profundo impacto sobre o clima global. Distúrbios na AMOC supostamente também estariam associados a alterações pretéritas na produtividade marinha e absorção oceânica de dióxido de carbono atmosférico, que contribuíram para mudanças no clima global e levaram à terminação do último ciclo glacial. Embora o Atlântico Sul constitua importante rota para o fluxo de retorno da AMOC, impactos de alterações na AMOC especialmente na porção subtropical do Atlântico Sudoeste ainda permanecem elusivos. Neste estudo, registros de alta resolução de propriedades da camada superior da coluna de água e de produtividade foram utilizados para reconstruir a evolução de condições oceanográficas na porção subtropical do Atlântico Sudoeste ao longo dos últimos 40,000 anos. Os indicadores empregados se baseiam na composição de assembleias faunísticas e de isótopos estáveis de oxigênio em foraminíferos planctônicos de testemunho sedimentar marinho coletado na margem continental sul do Brasil (27°S). Os principais resultados deste estudo revelam, pela primeira vez, aumento de produtividade primária na porção subtropical do Atlântico Sudoeste durante Heinrich Stadials ao longo do último glacial, quando a AMOC apresentou reduzida intensidade. Adicionalmente, o presente estudo revela diminuição de produtividade primária durante o Último Máximo Glacial e Younger Dryas, quando a AMOC apresentou apenas moderada redução. O declínio de produtividade mais proeminente é observado após o início do Holoceno, quando a AMOC recuperou sua intensidade. Os resultados do presente trabalho também revelam que, de modo geral, condições similares ao glacial prevaleceram no princípio do Holoceno, antes de completa retomada da AMOC. Plenas condições interglaciais apenas teriam se estabelecido há cerca de 9,000 anos, quando a AMOC foi completamente revigorada; embora plena configuração interglacial tenha sido abruptamente interrompida em meados do Holoceno, acompanhando repentina redução da AMOC. Estes resultados sugerem que o impacto da AMOC na porção subtropical do Atlântico Sudoeste teria desempenhado um papel crítico não apenas durante o último glacial, mas também ao longo da transição glacial-interglacial e mesmo sob plenas condições interglaciais. A principal hipótese deste estudo é de que as mudanças observadas foram ocasionadas por dinâmicas da Corrente do Brasil primariamente induzidas por distúrbios na AMOC.

This thesis examines how early warning signals perform when tested on climate systems thought to exhibit future tipping point behaviour. A tipping point in a dynamical system is a large and sudden change to the state of the system, usually caused by changes in external forcing. This is due to the state the system occupies becoming unstable, causing the system to settle to a new stable state. In many cases, there is a degree of irreversibility once the tipping point has been passed, preventing the system from reverting back to its original state without a large reversal in forcing. Passing tipping points in climate systems, such as the Amazon rainforest or the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, is particularly dangerous as the effects of this will be globally felt. Fortunately there is potential for early warning signals, designed to warn that the system is approaching a tipping point. Generally, these early warning signals are based on analysis of the time series of the system, such as searching for ‘critical slowing down’, usually estimated by an increasing lag-1 autocorrelation (AR(1)). The idea here is that as a system’s state becomes less stable, it will start to react more sluggishly to short term perturbations. While early warning signals have been tested extensively in simple models and on palaeoclimate data, there has been very little research into how these behave in complex models and observed data. Here, early warning signals are tested on climate systems that show tipping point behaviour in general circulation models. Furthermore, it examines why early warning signals might fail in certain cases and provides prospect for more ‘system specific indicators’ based on properties of individual tipping elements. The thesis also examines how slowing down in a system might affect ecosystems that are being driven by it.