Agricultural production and human activities in a watershed can expose the watershed to environmental degradation, pollution problems, and a decrease in water quality if resources and activities within a watershed are not managed carefully. In order to best utilize limited resources and maximize the results with respect to time and money spent on nonpoint source (NPS) pollution control and prevention, the environmental risk must be identified so that areas with a higher quantified environmental risk can be targeted. The objectives of the research presented in this master thesis were to develop a procedure to quantify environmental risk of nutrient loadings to surface waters and to demonstrate the procedure on a watershed. A procedure to quantify environmental risk of nutrient loadings to surface waters was developed. The risk is identified as the probability of occurrence of a nonpoint source (NPS) pollution event caused by a runoff event multiplied by the consequences to a biological or chemical endpoint. The procedure utilizes the NPS pollution model ANSWERS-2000 to generate upland pollutant loadings to receiving waters. The pollutant loading impact on stream water quality is estimated using the stream module of Hydrologic Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF). The risk is calculated as the product of probability of occurrence of a NPS event and consequences of that event. The risk quantification procedure was applied to a watershed in Virginia. Total phosphorus (TP) loadings were evaluated with respect to resultant in-stream dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration. The TP loadings were estimated in ANSWERS-2000 then the consequences were estimated in HSPF. The results indicated that risk was higher for the smaller, more frequent storms indicating that these smaller, more frequent loading events represent a greater risk to the in-stream water quality and ecosystem than larger events. While the probability of occurrence of lower TP loading was higher because they were caused by smaller, more frequent storms, the consequences were less for the same events. The developed procedure can provide watershed stakeholders and managers with a useful tool to quantify the environmental risk a watershed is exposed to as a result of different land management and development scenarios. The scenarios can then be compared to identify a risk level that is considered acceptable. The procedure can also be used by policymakers to set a cap on the risk a certain activity can expose a watershed to. / Master of Science

The effect of urbanization on previously agricultural watersheds is an increasingly important issue for watershed planners. Urbanization increases runoff and pollutant loadings to the watershed outlet. Watershed planners in areas that previously had little impervious cover must now consider the effects of new roads and buildings on hydrologic processes. The ANSWERS-2000 watershed model was modified to simulate watersheds with mixtures of agricultural and urban areas. In addition, components were added to simulate atmospheric deposition and urban management practices, including wet ponds, dry ponds, and infiltration trenches. The modified model was evaluated on two watersheds in Blacksburg, Virginia, including a subwatershed of Stroubles Creek and a large parking lot on the Virginia Tech campus with a dry pond at its outlet. The model predicted the hydrology and pollutant losses for the year 1999 from the Stroubles Creek watershed within 50% of the observed values after calibration. Prediction errors were much higher for the parking lot and dry pond simulation of the period of time from August 1995 to February 1996. For the parking lot inflow to the dry pond, errors ranged from 0 to 100%. For the dry pond effluent, errors for runoff and sediment losses were -11.5 and 60.1%, respectively, and nutrient losses were poorly predicted (greater than 100% error). There was considerable uncertainty as to the quality of the observed data and this may account for some of the predicted sediment and nutrient loss errors. The modified model was applied to the Battlefield Green Watershed in Hanover County, Virginia to demonstrate the watershed response to development in that watershed. As simulated, sediment and nutrient losses were 30 to 50 times higher after development. The model is intended for use on watersheds with an impervious cover of 30% or less, due to the increased difficulty in accurately quantifying the hydrology of highly urbanized watersheds and because of uncertainty in atmospheric deposition rates on such watersheds. The pond subroutines are very simplified, and limit simulation to ponds with simple geometries. / Master of Science