This study mainly explores the declaration effect of Capital Reduction on stock price. The samples will be those listed companies which have declared the activity of Capital Reduction, and the sample period is from March 1, 2005 to August 31, 2007. We use multiple factors model (market return, stock volume variance, the net buy-and-sell ratio of foreign investment) with ADF, Ljung-Box Q and Ljung-Box Q2 to build our model, and then apply the method of event study to explain the declaration effect of Capital Reduction. As a result, this study exhibits Capital Reduction can not offer abnormal returns during the period of three days before the declaration and three days after.

This report is for MA575: Market and Credit Risk Models and Management, given by Professor Marcel Blais. In this project, three different methods for estimating Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) are used, examined, and compared to gain insightful information about the strength and weakness of each method. In the first part of this project, a portfolio of underlying assets and vanilla options were formed in an Interactive Broker paper trading account. Value at Risk was calculated and updated weekly to measure the risk of the entire portfolio. In the second part of this project, Value at Risk was calculated using semi-parametric model. Then the weekly losses of the stock portfolio and the daily losses of the entire portfolio were both fitted into ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1), and the estimated parameters were used to find their conditional value at risks (CVaR) and the conditional expected shortfalls (CES).