Thesis (M.A.)--University of Hong Kong, 1994. / Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (M.A.)--University of Hong Kong, 1994. / Includes bibliographical references. Also available in print.

There has been very little research in the area of air cargo demand analysis and forecasting. This thesis attempts to investigate the application of gravity models to air cargo. Using international export volumes from Vancouver International Airport in 1998, a gravity model was built. The inclusion of tariffs as an impedance factor allowed testing of the effect of tariffs as predicted by gravity models. The results were consistent with international trade theory that tariffs provide a barrier to international trade. Further, a comparison is made between aggregate and disaggregate models (across commodities). It was found that aggregation eliminates commodity specific characteristics. In using the gravity model, there are two adjustments which need to be made to reduce the bias in the model: firstly, adjustment is necessary to the bias inherent in the constant term of a log-linear model; and a further adjustment is required when forecasting actual levels rather than log levels. Even after adjustments for both types of bias, the gravity model did not produce accurate forecasts. The aggregate model produced better forecasts than the disaggregate model, but both sets of forecasts did not accurately predict the actual volumes transported. This could be as a result of the stable nature of the variables included in the model, which tend to change very slowly over time. Further, it is apparent that other additional explanatory variables should be included in the models to better capture the short-term changes in air cargo. / Business, Sauder School of / Graduate

The aviation industry is undeniably playing a very significant role in our day-to-day life. A vast and inter-connected web of flights ensures swift passenger travel and cargo traffic. However, in the name of security, otherwise intrinsic technicalities tend now not only to hinder on further development of aviation facilitation but also take over and lead towards the exact opposite result. What are the current measures taken by the international community to streamline passenger travel? What are the new initiatives which ought to be implemented? How is the future of aviation facilitation going to look like? How is it going to affect air travel and what legal implications is it rising? Throughout this thesis we will present the legal framework applicable to aviation facilitation and discuss the main initiatives that are being considered by ICAO and IATA in this respect. While Facilitation and Security should be considered as "two faces of the same coin", in reality they appear to "compete" against each other. Hence, we will provide our arguments in support of this theory.

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Text in English / This research project, within the context of security risk management in general and aviation security in particular, aimed to explore the impact of the application of international and local air cargo security regulations on South Africa, with specific reference to the regulations of the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO), as well as the European Union (EU) and the United States of America (USA). In South Africa, since the early 2000s, the South African Civil Aviation Authority (SACAA) has been the lead agency for dealing with and managing the needs for air cargo security. This oversight by SACAA culminated in 2009 with the promulgation of the SACAA Regulation commonly known as Part 108. Accordingly the primary research focus was on the impact Part 108 has had on the air cargo industry in South Africa. In addition, it compared the South African regulations with those of the USA and EU regulations; explored the compliance of the various roleplayers; sought to understand the enforcement of the regulations; and examined the effectiveness of the available security and screening methods. Furthermore, the research attempted to determine whether these regulations had any effect on preventing or deterring crime in the air cargo sector. / Criminology and Security Science / M. Tech. (Security Management)

Fu Gang. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2001. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 71-72). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / ABSTRACT OF THESIS ENTITLED --- p.I / ACKNOWLEDGEMENT --- p.III / TABLE OF CONTENT --- p.IV / LIST OF FIGURES --- p.VII / LIST OF TABLES --- p.VIII / Chapter CHAPTER 1 --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- A Third-party E-commerce Logistics Center in Need --- p.1 / Chapter 1.2 --- Difficulty in Designing the Logistics Center --- p.2 / Chapter 1.3 --- AHP and ANP --- p.3 / Chapter 1.4 --- Scope of the Study --- p.4 / Chapter 1.5 --- Organization of the Thesis --- p.5 / Chapter CHAPTER 2 --- BACKGROUND AND LITERATURE REVIEW --- p.7 / Chapter 2.1 --- Third-party E-commerce Logistics Center --- p.7 / Chapter 2.2 --- "Government, Investors, and Users" --- p.8 / Chapter 2.3 --- Center Design --- p.11 / Chapter 2.3.1 --- Information and Physical Infrastructure --- p.11 / Chapter 2.3.2 --- Ownership Arrangement --- p.12 / Chapter 2.3.3 --- Design Alternatives --- p.13 / Chapter 2.4 --- Evaluating Design Alternatives --- p.17 / Chapter CHAPTER 3 --- AHP MODEL --- p.19 / Chapter 3.1 --- Introduction of AHP --- p.19 / Chapter 3.2 --- AHP Models for Government --- p.20 / Chapter 3.2.1 --- Benefit to Government --- p.20 / Chapter 3.2.2 --- Cost to Government --- p.23 / Chapter 3.2.3 --- Risk to Government --- p.24 / Chapter 3.3 --- AHP Models for Investors --- p.25 / Chapter 3.3.1 --- Benefit to Investors --- p.25 / Chapter 3.3.2 --- Cost to Investors --- p.28 / Chapter 3.3.3 --- Risk to Investors --- p.29 / Chapter 3.4 --- AHP Models for Users --- p.32 / Chapter 3.4.1 --- Benefit to Users --- p.32 / Chapter 3.4.2 --- Cost to Users --- p.34 / Chapter 3.4.3 --- Risk to Users --- p.36 / Chapter CHAPTER 4 --- RISK SHARING IN CENTER DESIGN ´ؤ USING AHP MODEL --- p.38 / Chapter 4.1 --- "Solution Methodology of Aggregating Benefit, Cost and Risk in AHP" --- p.38 / Chapter 4.2 --- Aspects in Determining an Agreeable Solution --- p.40 / Chapter 4.3 --- Sensitivity Analysis in AHP --- p.42 / Chapter 4.4 --- A Conflict-Resolving Solution Procedure for AHP --- p.44 / Chapter 4.5 --- An Illustrative Numerical Example in AHP --- p.48 / Chapter CHAPTER 5 --- ANP MODEL --- p.51 / Chapter 5.1 --- Introduction of ANP --- p.51 / Chapter 5.2 --- ANP Models for Government --- p.53 / Chapter 5.2.1. --- Benefit to Government --- p.55 / Chapter 5.2.2. --- Cost to Government --- p.54 / Chapter 5.2.3. --- Risk to Government --- p.54 / Chapter 5.3 --- ANP Models for Investors --- p.56 / Chapter 5.3.1 --- Benefit to Investors --- p.56 / Chapter 5.3.2 --- Cost to Investors --- p.56 / Chapter 5.3.3 --- Risk to Investors --- p.56 / Chapter 5.4 --- ANP Models for Users --- p.56 / Chapter 5.4.1 --- Benefit to Users --- p.56 / Chapter 5.4.2 --- Cost to Users --- p.58 / Chapter 5.4.3 --- Risk to Users --- p.58 / Chapter CHAPTER 6 --- RISK SHARING IN CENTER DESIGN ´ؤ USING ANP MODEL --- p.60 / Chapter 6.1 --- Aggregated Benefit-Cost-Risk ANP Model --- p.60 / Chapter 6.2 --- Sensitivity Analysis of ANP Model in an AHP Fashion --- p.61 / Chapter 6.3 --- Sensitivity Analysis of General ANP Model --- p.62 / Chapter 6.4 --- A Conflict-Resolving Solution Procedure for ANP --- p.63 / Chapter 6.5 --- An Illustrative Numerical Example in ANP --- p.66 / Chapter CHAPTER 7 --- p.69 / CONCLUSION --- p.69 / BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.71

Text in English / This research project, within the context of security risk management in general and aviation security in particular, aimed to explore the impact of the application of international and local air cargo security regulations on South Africa, with specific reference to the regulations of the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO), as well as the European Union (EU) and the United States of America (USA). In South Africa, since the early 2000s, the South African Civil Aviation Authority (SACAA) has been the lead agency for dealing with and managing the needs for air cargo security. This oversight by SACAA culminated in 2009 with the promulgation of the SACAA Regulation commonly known as Part 108. Accordingly the primary research focus was on the impact Part 108 has had on the air cargo industry in South Africa. In addition, it compared the South African regulations with those of the USA and EU regulations; explored the compliance of the various roleplayers; sought to understand the enforcement of the regulations; and examined the effectiveness of the available security and screening methods. Furthermore, the research attempted to determine whether these regulations had any effect on preventing or deterring crime in the air cargo sector. / Criminology and Security Science / M. Tech. (Security Management)