M.Com. ( Transport Economics) / The past years have been momentous in terms of international air transport economic regulatory developments. The years ahead threatens to be unique in terms of disruption of the international air network, as highest level forces in the world's most influential aviation nations seek to change the very nature of sound and orderly commercial international air transport ...

D.Com. / In South Africa ninety percent of scheduled air travellers were transported by South African Airways during 1983/84. The airline operates on all the main routes in South and Southern Africa supported by the private scheduled airlines operating in a feeder/ distribution function to many main centers. Recently the industry has been subjected to a commission of inquiry (Margo Commission) which analysed amongst other the administration and control of civil aviation, the licensing of air services, and the adequacy and efficiency of scheduled and nonscheduled regional and domestic services ...

Submitted in partial compliance with the requirements for the Master’s Degree in Technology: Chiropractic, Durban University of Technology, 2014. / Background Occupational low back pain (LBP) has been described as a significant burden to society. Although there is uncertainty and conflicting studies on the exact causes and combination of causes of LBP, it has been found that occupations which require prolonged sitting periods and have exposure to physical factors such as whole body vibration (WBV) and / or awkward posture, results in increased likelihood for LBP. Pilots are not sheltered from the development of LBP, with the lifetime prevalence of LBP varying from 31.5% to a significant 82%. Additionally, point prevalence varies significantly between 5.1% and 68%, which illustrates that individual pilot and / or occupational factors may contribute to specific pilot subgroups. This could apply to commercial pilots, who use seats that were found to be ineffective in terms of their depth and inclination, therefore limiting the height and impact of the lumbar support. There is a paucity of studies performed on LBP relating to commercial pilots, specifically, on their unique occupational setting. Research is therefore warranted to illustrate the possible risk factors to which they are exposed to, as impeded performance may lead to catastrophic consequences if a pilot’s ability to complete actions critical to flight becomes hindered. Aim To determine the prevalence of low back pain (LBP) in commercial pilots and identify possible risk factors that pilots are exposed to. Study designs The study transpired as a cross sectional questionnaire survey. Participants Study comprised of 100 commercial pilots registered with the South African Civil Aviation Authority (SACAA) and affiliated with the various participating companies utilizing O.R. Tambo International Airport. Methodology All commercial pilots registered with the SACAA and who make use of the O.R.Tambo International Airport (operate through or from) and affiliated with the participating companies during the research study, was approached for participation. Pilots were required to sign and agree to the letter of information and informed consent, as well as the confidentiality agreement. Questionnaires were distributed and all documents were collected, following completion thereof. Pilots were not allocated to more than one group during the data collection (recording) phase of the study. Subgroup analysis was however not excluded in the analysis. IBM SPSS version 21 was used for analysis. A p value <0.05 was considered as statistically significant. Demographics of the pilots were described in the same manner as in the case of categorical variables, and using summary statistics such as mean, standard deviation and range for quantitative variables. Prevalence and characteristics of the low back pain is described using relative frequency and percentages, with 95% confidence intervals. Associations between risk factors and low back pain was identified with log linear regression analysis and tested using Pearson’s chi square test in the case of categorical variables and t-tests in the case of continuous variables. Results The lifetime prevalence of LBP amongst commercial pilots was 80.8%, with the annual prevalence reaching 68.7%. Majority of commercial pilots were white, married males, with nearly the entire population having reached similar educational levels. Considering the male predominance of this population, gender was significantly associated with LBP. Although the female population was much smaller than the male population, it was also found that females were six times more at risk of developing LBP; however the risk was not statistically significant. Awkward posture such as twisting and being stressed at work were found to be significantly related to LBP. Having a history as an ex-smoker or non-smoker was found to be a risk for LBP development. BMI was also significantly related to LBP; however, an inverse relationship is indicated. Having a subjective rating of good health versus excellent health was also an indicator of risk for LBP. Conclusion: Commercial pilots have a significant risk for LBP development. It was found that subjective ratings of own health was a good indicator of LBP whereby good health versus excellent health, was a significant risk factor. Although greater portions of the populace are white males, normally less at risk, a significant lifetime and annual prevalence of LBP was found. Furthermore, the small female population had potentially considerable contribution to the prevalence of LBP through their significant odds ratio. Being a current smoker carried less risk in comparison to a history of an ex-smoker or non-smoker, which further complicates the so often debated contribution of this proposed risk factor. Interesting results were found through the inverse proportional relationship that exists between BMI and LBP, whereby every unit increase in BMI results in a relative decreased risk for LBP development. Majority of the proposed risk factors of LBP was not found to be significant, except stress and twisting, which were found to be common risk factors amongst commercial pilots.

D.Com. (Transport Economics) / The international scheduled airfreight industry is showing a major discrepancy when compared to other public transport services namely that the demand and need for it is growing at a lower rate compared to that of passenger transport. Various factors are contributing to this phenomenon ...

M. Tech. Tourism and Hospitality Management / The objective of this research is to compile a comprehensive profile of the passengers of Airlink which is a South African domestic airline. The other objectives are to explore the marketing process and behavioural description of Airlink's customers.

BURP / Department of Urban and Regional Planning

Abstracts in English, Afrikaans and Northern Sotho / More time series forecasting methods were researched and made available in recent years. This is mainly due to the emergence of machine learning methods which also found applicability in time series forecasting. The emergence of a variety of methods and their variants presents a challenge when choosing appropriate forecasting methods. This study explored the performance of four advanced forecasting methods: autoregressive integrated moving averages (ARIMA); artificial neural networks (ANN); support vector machines (SVM) and regression models with ARIMA errors. To improve their performance, bagging was also applied. The performance of the different methods was illustrated using South African air passenger data collected for planning purposes by the Airports Company South Africa (ACSA). The dissertation discussed the different forecasting methods at length. Characteristics such as strengths and weaknesses and the applicability of the methods were explored. Some of the most popular forecast accuracy measures were discussed in order to understand how they could be used in the performance evaluation of the methods. It was found that the regression model with ARIMA errors outperformed all the other methods, followed by the ARIMA model. These findings are in line with the general findings in the literature. The ANN method is prone to overfitting and this was evident from the results of the training and the test data sets. The bagged models showed mixed results with marginal improvement on some of the methods for some performance measures. It could be concluded that the traditional statistical forecasting methods (ARIMA and the regression model with ARIMA errors) performed better than the machine learning methods (ANN and SVM) on this data set, based on the measures of accuracy used. This calls for more research regarding the applicability of the machine learning methods to time series forecasting which will assist in understanding and improving their performance against the traditional statistical methods / Die afgelope tyd is verskeie tydreeksvooruitskattingsmetodes ondersoek as gevolg van die ontwikkeling van masjienleermetodes met toepassings in die vooruitskatting van tydreekse. Die nuwe metodes en hulle variante laat ʼn groot keuse tussen vooruitskattingsmetodes. Hierdie studie ondersoek die werkverrigting van vier gevorderde vooruitskattingsmetodes: outoregressiewe, geïntegreerde bewegende gemiddeldes (ARIMA), kunsmatige neurale netwerke (ANN), steunvektormasjiene (SVM) en regressiemodelle met ARIMA-foute. Skoenlussaamvoeging is gebruik om die prestasie van die metodes te verbeter. Die prestasie van die vier metodes is vergelyk deur hulle toe te pas op Suid-Afrikaanse lugpassasiersdata wat deur die Suid-Afrikaanse Lughawensmaatskappy (ACSA) vir beplanning ingesamel is. Hierdie verhandeling beskryf die verskillende vooruitskattingsmetodes omvattend. Sowel die positiewe as die negatiewe eienskappe en die toepasbaarheid van die metodes is uitgelig. Bekende prestasiemaatstawwe is ondersoek om die prestasie van die metodes te evalueer. Die regressiemodel met ARIMA-foute en die ARIMA-model het die beste van die vier metodes gevaar. Hierdie bevinding strook met dié in die literatuur. Dat die ANN-metode na oormatige passing neig, is deur die resultate van die opleidings- en toetsdatastelle bevestig. Die skoenlussamevoegingsmodelle het gemengde resultate opgelewer en in sommige prestasiemaatstawwe vir party metodes marginaal verbeter. Op grond van die waardes van die prestasiemaatstawwe wat in hierdie studie gebruik is, kan die gevolgtrekking gemaak word dat die tradisionele statistiese vooruitskattingsmetodes (ARIMA en regressie met ARIMA-foute) op die gekose datastel beter as die masjienleermetodes (ANN en SVM) presteer het. Dit dui op die behoefte aan verdere navorsing oor die toepaslikheid van tydreeksvooruitskatting met masjienleermetodes om hul prestasie vergeleke met dié van die tradisionele metodes te verbeter. / Go nyakišišitšwe ka ga mekgwa ye mentši ya go akanya ka ga molokoloko wa dinako le go dirwa gore e hwetšagale mo mengwageng ye e sa tšwago go feta. Se k e k a le b a k a la g o t šwelela ga mekgwa ya go ithuta ya go diriša metšhene yeo le yona e ilego ya dirišwa ka kakanyong ya molokolokong wa dinako. Go t šwelela ga mehutahuta ya mekgwa le go fapafapana ga yona go tšweletša tlhohlo ge go kgethwa mekgwa ya maleba ya go akanya. Dinyakišišo tše di lekodišišitše go šoma ga mekgwa ye mene ya go akanya yeo e gatetšego pele e lego: ditekanyotshepelo tšeo di kopantšwego tša poelomorago ya maitirišo (ARIMA); dinetweke tša maitirelo tša nyurale (ANN); metšhene ya bekthara ya thekgo (SVM); le mekgwa ya poelomorago yeo e nago le diphošo tša ARIMA. Go kaonafatša go šoma ga yona, nepagalo ya go ithuta ka metšhene le yona e dirišitšwe. Go šoma ga mekgwa ye e fepafapanego go laeditšwe ka go šomiša tshedimošo ya banamedi ba difofane ba Afrika Borwa yeo e kgobokeditšwego mabakeng a dipeakanyo ke Khamphani ya Maemafofane ya Afrika Borwa (ACSA). Sengwalwanyaki šišo se ahlaahlile mekgwa ya kakanyo ye e fapafapanego ka bophara. Dipharologanyi tša go swana le maatla le bofokodi le go dirišega ga mekgwa di ile tša šomišwa. Magato a mangwe ao a tumilego kudu a kakanyo ye e nepagetšego a ile a ahlaahlwa ka nepo ya go kwešiša ka fao a ka šomišwago ka gona ka tshekatshekong ya go šoma ga mekgwa ye. Go hweditšwe gore mokgwa wa poelomorago wa go ba le diphošo tša ARIMA o phadile mekgwa ye mengwe ka moka, gwa latela mokgwa wa ARIMA. Dikutollo tše di sepelelana le dikutollo ka kakaretšo ka dingwaleng. Mo k gwa wa ANN o ka fela o fetišiša gomme se se bonagetše go dipoelo tša tlhahlo le dihlo pha t ša teko ya tshedimošo. Mekgwa ya nepagalo ya go ithuta ka metšhene e bontšhitše dipoelo tšeo di hlakantšwego tšeo di nago le kaonafalo ye kgolo go ye mengwe mekgwa ya go ela go phethagatšwa ga mešomo. Go ka phethwa ka gore mekgwa ya setlwaedi ya go akanya dipalopalo (ARIMA le mokgwa wa poelomorago wa go ba le diphošo tša ARIMA) e šomile bokaone go phala mekgwa ya go ithuta ka metšhene (ANN le SVM) ka mo go sehlopha se sa tshedimošo, go eya ka magato a nepagalo ya magato ao a šomišitšwego. Se se nyaka gore go dirwe dinyakišišo tše dingwe mabapi le go dirišega ga mekgwa ya go ithuta ka metšhene mabapi le go akanya molokoloko wa dinako, e lego seo se tlago thuša go kwešiša le go kaonafatša go šoma ga yona kgahlanong le mekgwa ya setlwaedi ya dipalopalo. / Decision Sciences / M. Sc. (Operations Research)

This study attempted to establish the travel behaviours and choice criteria of the South African domestic air passenger and how they differed between low-cost carriers (LCCs) and full-service carriers (FSCs). The study was quantitative and used structured questionnaires to collect data via personal interviews. Descriptive and inferential techniques were used to analyse the data, including a binomial logistic regression to identify predictors of model choice. Analysis This study attempted to establish the travel behaviours and choice criteria of the South African domestic air passenger and how they differed between low-cost carriers (LCCs) and full-service carriers (FSCs). The study was quantitative and used structured questionnaires to collect data via personal interviews. Descriptive and inferential techniques were used to analyse the data, including a binomial logistic regression to identify predictors of model choice. Analysis showed that passengers had a limited understanding of the functioning of the models. This results in consumer perceptions and expectations being discordant with the true differences. In distinguishing between models, LCC passengers rate LCCs more favourably than FSC passengers, but both rate FSCs higher than LCCs. This shows the need of consumers to have the features and services of the FSCs. Amongst the key findings was the absolute importance of price to the passengers on both models when purchasing the ticket. The analysis showed that LCC passengers are highly price sensitive and show loyalty to the lowest price (not airline model). It was apparent that frequent flyer programmes (FFP), or linkages to 3rd party loyalty programmes, for LCCs need to be reconsidered. Younger LCC passengers especially, indicated a need for a simple FFP to receive some form of ‘reward’, as well as benefits traditionally only offered by FSCs. FSC passengers show a greater degree of loyalty and less fare sensitivity. This provides the FSCs with a degree of fare flexibility and the opportunity to move their loyal, less price-sensitive consumers up the price curve to maximise revenue. It was shown that, in distinguishing themselves from FSCs, it is important that LCCs are perceived as being more affordable than FSCs and are offering a value-for-money service. In essence, LCCs have to defend their positioning by (i) ensuring that their fares are not perceived to be as high as a FSCs and (ii) watching that the FSC fares are not declining to a level where FSCs are perceived as being as cheap as a LCC. For LCCs, brand building strategies around issues other than fare need to be devised, with attention paid to identifying determinant factors. / Business Management / D. Com (Business Management)