The Practice of Coercive Diplomacy in the Post-9/11 Period The model of coercive diplomacy has been used as a framework for analyzing various cases of confrontation between two or more states. Coercive diplomacy is the use by a state of the threat of force to achieve its demands. Formulated by Alexander L. George, this model has been applied on a diverse group of case studies, such as the initial stages of the Vietnam conflict, the Laos conflict, as well as the Cuban missile crisis. This dissertation studies four cases from the post-9/11 period and analyzes them through the components of coercive diplomacy. These cases are (a) Operation Parakram 2001-2002 India-Pakistan crisis, (b) U.S. coercion on the Taliban September-October 2001, (c) U.S. coercive diplomacy against Saddams Iraq prior to the March 2003 invasion, and (d) Coercive diplomacy and the North Korean nuclear crisis, 2002-2006.

From 1992 until 1995, Morocco and the European Union (EU) were in negotiations for an Association Agreement as part of a regional initiative, the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership (or "Barcelona process"). The free trade provisions of the agreement seemed unfavorable for Morocco: they largely excluded agriculture, and, therefore, many products in which Morocco could have made significant gains, they opened the Moroccan market to competition from EU non-agricultural products (Morocco had achieved equivalent access to EU markets decades earlier), and EU funding for Moroccan company upgrading fell far short of expectations. This research sought to determine how the respective political systems of Morocco and the European Union led to the EU proposing, and Morocco accepting, a sub-optimal agreement. These issues were explored through recorded and transcribed interviews with key Moroccan and EU players, and through document analysis, and the resulting data were analyzed primarily in terms of Putnam's two-level game model of international negotiation. The principal findings are that Morocco may have achieved a better free trade deal had it been an open and democratic system during the period of negotiations. The closed and elitist nature of the Moroccan negotiation and ratification process meant that the official negotiating position did not account for the full range of interests affected by trade liberalization, and that the hand of the Moroccan negotiators in advocating even that less demanding position could not be strengthened by the threat of ratification failure — the prospect that dissident groups might reject the final agreement in Parliament, in a referendum, or in the streets. The European Union negotiation and ratification process, although open and democratic, was skewed by the lack of significant participation by most member States. Only France, Spain and Italy participated intensively, a situation that ensured the protection of powerful national lobbies (primarily Spanish farmers and fishermen) at the expense of Morocco and of EU economic development objectives for North Africa. The convergence of minimal participation in Morocco and significant but wholly inadequate participation in the European Union led to an agreement favoring narrow European sectoral interests at the expense of the broader vision of the Euro-Mediterranean partnership.

Leadership studies ask 'what makes an effective leader?' To answer this question analyses have to become practical and real-world oriented. The research question in this thesis is: 'How can the three factors - vision, decision-making style, and delegation - explain whether John F. Kennedy was an effective President?' While there are many other leadership factors such as integrity, political/legislative skills and communications skills three factors were chosen. 'Vision' mobilizes external support for the leader's overarching goals, and charts out a national direction. 'Decision making style' focuses on the 'internal', process-oriented aspects of leadership. The Delegation factor assesses what competence and perspectives that will bring input into the decision-making which will carry out the vision. The research methodology has been to conduct a single case study. His two year and ten months Presidency was short but contained several important Cold War events iv The Vision Hypothesis A President will be effective if he has a compelling vision of the future of America The MA thesis tested whether 'The New Frontier' was a successful vision from which visionary initiatives were derived. The Moon Project was the most ambitious national scientific project in two decades, propelling the U.S. for-ward in the space race. JFK's ideas on peaceful cooperation with the Soviets were a consequence of the Cuban Missile Crisis. The vision was enunciated with his 'Strategy of Peace' speech at American University, in which he pledged for a pause in the Cold War, and announced the signing of the Test Ban Treaty. In the selected cases he strived to educate the American public on urgent needs by pursuing longer-term goals in the interest of national security. The Decision Making Style Hypothesis A President will be effective if he has a competent personal decision making style The thesis tested whether President JFK had an effective personal decision making style. JFK often took issues out of the bureaucratic system in time to defend his own right to decide and his own right of innovation. JFK's collegial decision making model was a consensus-seeking vehicle which ensured that problems were debated through cross-fertilization. v The Delegation Hypothesis: A President will be effective if he delegates with an eye to his political control JFK knew what he was looking for in every position. Secretary of State Dean Rusk was probably chosen because JFK had conceived a greater role for himself in this area. Recent scholarly work has demonstrated that JFK was one of the most engaged Presidents in foreign affairs. Secretary of Defense Robert S. McNamara was chosen as a rational, intelligent civilian that could provide political control over the military establishment. Speech Writer Ted Sorensen knew JFK's intellectual ideas, and they cooperated closely on the speeches of the Administration. JFK relied on external advisors to balance decision-making information, and the British Ambassador Ormsby-Gore saw his ideas being put into use with regards to the quarantine line in the Cuban Missile Crisis. JFK's selection of advisors reflected the strengths and weaknesses of his own policy experience, demonstrating what Neustadt calls a 'rare' fine distinction among his 'fellow kings'. The thesis concludes by briefly testing the three factors in a comparison between President JFK and President George W. Bush, and finds that the current administration seems to have set too ambitious goals in its vision lacking good contextual intelligence.

Inflation was a common problem for developing countries in the 1970s and 1980s. From the beginning of the 21st century on, inflation is no longer as widespread as it used to be, but some few countries, like Turkey, continued to suffer from high inflation. Why have some developing countries become laggards in tackling the inflation problem, while most other countries stabilized their prices by 1990s? I argue that the answer can be found in socio-political factors as much as in economic factors. This dissertation strives to explain the persistence of inflation in developing countries with a socio-political approach. I suggest that persistent inflation cannot be explained solely by economic approaches. We also need to analyze the socio-political context of a country in order to understand why policymakers maintain inflationary policies and delay stabilization. This dissertation suggests that policymakers in some countries may experience greater difficulties in tackling inflation and face persistent inflation because of certain limitations, such as threats to national security, democracy, political instability, and proportional electoral system. This study compares the Turkish case with four other countries (Argentina, Brazil, Israel, and Mexico) to examine in detail whether and how social and political factors affect persistence of inflation. In addition to case studies, a statistical analysis of cross-national analysis is employed in order to get plausible explanations of persistent inflation. Many statistical analysis results support what is found in the case analyses. Findings suggest that international security concerns affect persistent inflation. High military expenses, which are necessary because of high threats to security, decrease the ability to eliminate inflation. Moreover, regime instability makes states less able to tackle the inflation problem and a consolidated democracy is the best political setting for price stabilization. Also, strong and stable governments are associated with less inflationary years. Electoral system and party system are relevant as well because they affect the strength and stability of the government. On the other hand, inequality and poverty do not seem to affect price stabilization.

THE IMPLICATIONS OF PUBLIC HOUSING DESIGN: A STUDY OF HUDS HOPE VI PROGRAM Brock Travis Onque, Ph.D. University of Pittsburgh, 2007 Over the past decade a philosophy has emerged at HUD that recognizes the importance of good design in the development of public housing. Quality design can help create safe, reasonably scaled, defensible environments. A Federal Grants Program, Hope VI, was developed in 1993 under the Urban Revitalization Demonstration Program. This program allocates grants up to $50 million dollars for redesigning and making infrastructural improvements in public housing communities. Since the inception of the program, funds have been awarded to a total of 130 public housing authorities in 34 states, the District of Columbia, and the Virgin Islands. After more than a decade, what are the outcomes of the program particularly in terms of creating safe environments and getting away from the negative stereotypes (both real and perceived) that are associated with public housing? Factually speaking, funds from the program have demolished 97,000 severely distressed public housing units, and there have been 61,000 revitalized units. But, in terms of other issues like safety, accessibility, and civic engagement, how has the program fared? One recent HUD study concludes that it is possible for this program to go wrong. The danger exists that the innovation of Hope VI could devolve into a new set of stereotypes comparable to some of the old public housing stereotypes. If the projects are poorly administered, buildings could deteriorate and public spaces could become neglected. This dissertation examined the current renovation activity in public housing and the objectives of the Hope VI program. Specifically, this study examined the goals of the Hope VI program and identified program outcomes at a specific Hope VI project in the City of Pittsburgh. Data from official documents, interview data from program experts, survey data from residents and observational analysis was compiled to identify program outcomes. The major finding of this study is that the Hope VI program has been successful in achieving its stated goals and that the program has brought about positive changes for public housing and therefore deserves to be extended. However, these findings also identify significant problem areas that plague the program and have tarnished the success the program has achieved. These findings suggest areas where the program can be strengthened to allow the program to better achieve its intended benefit. The study suggests new policy implications for the design of public housing and identifies new areas for future research and policy analysis. Such research is necessary to identify and develop new effective policies to improve the design and, by extension, the quality of life for those individuals living in public housing.

Dzhokhar Dudayev�s Chechen Revolution in 1991 unleashed a series of cascading social and political effects both in the North Caucasus and Russia as a whole. The revolution eventually led to two brutal wars and an escalating terrorism campaign by various insurgent groups. While some analysts over-generalize and attempt to place all the militant groups into a universal construct, the reality is that the Chechen national revolution is one of two revolutions. Both Yeltsin�s and Putin�s Russian states have intervened militarily to put down Chechen separatism but ignored the rebirth of the Islamic Revolution occurring across the entire North Caucasus. Ironically, these wars led the two revolutions to converge under a unified front led by Shamil Basayev. The successful assassination of Basayev in the summer of 2006 metastasized the front and reduced the large-scale operational capability of the militants. Much to the chagrin of Putin, this success has reduced the ability of the state to penetrate and destroy the remaining networks. Additionally, the Chechen Revolution is subsiding and entering a Thermidor stage, while the pan-Caucasian Islamic Revolutionary vanguard now dominates the insurgency; it is this second group that will continue to create political instability in the region for the near future. Moreover, demographic and economic trends threaten to fuel the growing insurgency, making prospects for long-term stability bleak at best. Russia will be involved militarily in the North Caucasus for a long time to come.

Despite earlier failed attempts to establish similar regional arrangements, why were the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and the ASEAN+3 (APT) successfully created in the late 1980s and the late 1990s, respectively? Why did they take the institutional forms that they took, and why did they evolve in the way they did? To analyze the formation of these regional arrangements, this dissertation proposes an institutionalist framework that addresses two related but analytically distinct questions: why are regional institutions created, and how are they created? Accordingly, the first stage of analysis explores the variation of state preferences concerning regionalism among key governments. It reveals that intraregional developments, such as a rise of regional economic interdependence or the development of regionalist ideas, did not quickly alter the configuration of state preferences in favor of a regionalist approach. Rather, it argues that the urgent governmental demand for both APEC and the APT was primarily driven by the defensive motive to respond to extraregional challenges. The second stage of analysis investigates the actual political processes by exploring who played a leadership role. It suggests that at critical junctures precipitated by crises, non-great powers can exercise entrepreneurial leadership in proposing a new regionalist initiative. Both stages highlight the trigger mechanisms for inducing an urgent governmental demand for a regional mechanism and for generating political opportunities for non-great powers to take on a new initiative. In short, this dissertation concludes that the creation of both APEC and APT can be explained by three factors: a set of extraregional developments as triggers for institutional creation; the governmental demand for a regionalist project; and the supply of political leadership by non-great powers. To analyze the institutional forms and evolution of APEC and APT, this dissertation investigates the four dimensions of institutions: membership, organizational structure, external orientation, and issue areas. The dissertation suggests that the institutional designs of both institutions reflect the common denominators of not only large states, but also small ones. More specifically, the organizational structure of both institutions was strongly shaped by the institutional preferences of ASEAN members.

The recurring failure of communities at risk to build mitigation into disaster recovery activities to reduce risks against future disaster events remains unresolved. In fact, some communities seem to learn so little from the disastrous experience of other communities; they either commit the same calamitous mistakes or do nothing to improve their circumstances before disaster actually strikes them. Policies exist, yet resilience building systems are lacking from the pragmatic stages of disaster recovery. Beyond sustained preparedness and relief operations, communities must also concentrate on effective rehabilitation and efficient disaster recovery if they are to become resilient against future hazards. The Eastern Caribbean islands, like many other developing countries, typify this failure of integrating mitigation into disaster recovery despite numerous incidents of hurricanes and tropical storms over the past decades. It is a socio-technical issue that needs to engage reliable information exchange mechanisms and efficient social networks to initiate and create solutions. The overall objective of this study is to explore how countries can improve mitigation through disaster recovery activities. It documents the results of an analysis of experiences in disaster recovery and mitigation in the Eastern Caribbean following Hurricane Lenny in November 1999 and Hurricane Ivan in September 2004. Through nested case design, the study constructs a framework for integrating mitigation into disaster recovery and comprehensive disaster management. It highlights relationships and interactions among households, builders, building designers, post-disaster rehabilitation agencies and disaster management organizations that can facilitate mitigation. It identifies factors that facilitate geospatial support in disaster management in the Eastern Caribbean and how geocollaboration enhances performance and effectiveness in comprehensive disaster management. Finally, the study modifies existing mechanisms for disaster mitigation and develops a scalable DHaRMS synchronization tool for mitigation implementation at multiple levels of society. This study is deemed important from an empirical perspective because it could yield valuable insights into the strengths and weaknesses of mitigation implementation as well as provide policy recommendations for improving the efficiency and effectiveness of mitigation and comprehensive disaster management. From a theoretical perspective, this research is oriented toward contributing to the theories of comprehensive disaster management and complexity.

This research tests the relationship between each of four smart growth principles and the supply of affordable housing for low-income households. The four principles are higher residential density, a variety of housing options, mixed land use, and the preservation of open space. The relationships are tested at the neighborhood level in two different types of metropolitan regions, those with an urban containment policy to combat sprawl and those without. Four regions were chosen to represent two pairs. Each pair consisted of two regions which had similar urban containment policies at one point in time and different policies at a second point. By comparing regression analyses from these two points in time, the research design can detect the influence of urban containment on the relationships among the specific smart growth principles and the supply of affordable units. The first pair of regions is of Portland and Seattle. Urban growth boundaries were present in the Portland region in 1990, but not in the Seattle region. Such boundaries were present in both regions in 2000. The second pair consists of the regions of Baltimore and Philadelphia. Neither region had urban containment in 1990, but priority funding areas were established throughout the Baltimore region by 2000. The research provides evidence for the following conclusions. First, a variety of housing options, specifically the availability of multi-unit structures, is associated with a greater supply of affordable rental units. Second, greater residential density in general is typically associated with a greater supply of affordable rental units. Third, a variety of housing options better explains the variation in the supply of affordable units than a general measure of density. Fourth, urban containment policies do not influence the relationships between the smart growth principles and the supply of affordable housing. A policy implication of these conclusions is that growth management mandates to increase residential density should also specify the type of housing developed if growth management is to have positive consequences for the supply of affordable units.

This dissertation examined extralegal factors that predicted the likelihood of victim non-cooperation in domestic violence incidents and whether the type of arrest policy influenced the odds of non-cooperation when the nature of the victim/offender relationship and the type of domestic assault were considered. National Incident Based Reporting System data (2003) was used to investigate whether there was evidence contained in the incident level data routinely reported by law enforcement that would reliably predict whether a victim would be unwilling to cooperate with police in an incident of domestic violence. The multivariate analyses used incident characteristics as predictors of victim non-cooperation with the police at the scene, including offender demographics, number of offenders, presence of a weapon, incident location, number of victims, victim demographics, victim injury, victim's relationship to the offender, and incident clearance method. The victims domestic relationship to the offender was characterized as a family relationship (related by blood or marriage) or an intimate relationship. Logistic regression was employed to determine whether there was evidence contained in the that would reliably predict that a victim would be unwilling to cooperate with law enforcement and whether that evidence was influenced by the restrictiveness of the domestic violence arrest policy. The major finding of this study was that the victim's relationship to the offender played a central role in determining the likelihood of non-cooperation. The odds of a victim not cooperating with police increased significantly if the victim was an intimate partner versus a family member; these odds increased with the restrictiveness of the arrest policy. For incidents involving domestic violence, states typically use civil code to define the victim's relationship to the offender and criminal code to define the offense. The current trend among states' amending constitutions in order to define legally recognized civil relationships could affect whether or not domestic violence laws will apply to unmarried individuals in intimate relationships. Changes resulting in the legal exclusion of intimate victims from the protections of domestic violence legislation in a state may affect victim decision making, perhaps reducing the number of such incidents that come to the attention of law enforcement.