This study explores the biophysical potential and economic attractiveness of black spruce (Picea mariana) regeneration in eastern Canada under future climate changes. It integrates process-based ecosystem model simulated forest productivities from three major global climate models (GCMs), growth and yield formulations specific to black spruce and economic analyses to determine the overall investment value of black spruce, both including and excluding carbon sequestration benefits. Net present value (NPV) was estimated to represent the financial attractiveness of long-rotation forest plantations through time. It was assumed that stands would not be harvested at volumes less than 80 m3 ha-1. The price of stumpage was set to $20 m-3, stand establishment cost was set to $500 ha-1, and the discount rate was considered at 4%, with sensitivity analyses conducted around these assumptions. The growth and yield of black spruce was simulated for an extreme future climate scenario – IPCC-RCP 8.5. The results suggested a general North-South gradient in forest productivity where gross merchantable wood volumes increased with decreasing latitudes. This pattern was also observed in NPVs, with higher values projected for the southern portion of the study area. Based on the base economic assumptions and sensitivity analyses, study results suggested that black spruce plantations are not economically attractive, unless carbon sequestration benefits of at least $5 ton-1 CO2 are realized. Further sensitivity analyses showed that discount rate plays a significant role in determining the optimal harvest age and value. Furthermore, the optimal harvest rotation age increases with increasing carbon price by approximately 9 to 18 years. / Thesis / Master of Science (MSc)

The daunting tasks of responding to climate change and ensuring sustainable development (SD) are high on the political agenda among world leaders. From the onset, the clean development mechanisms (CDM) outlined in Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol (KP), state that CDM activities should contribute to SD in the host country while reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emission. Nevertheless, many scholars have criticized CDM for failing to deliver on its twin objectives. In Ethiopia in particular, there was lack of afforestation/reforestation (A/R) CDM research specific to the nation; specifically, research as to whether A/R-CDM met the stipulated twin objectives of SD and mitigation (reducing GHG). This study was conducted in the Humbo district of Wolyaita Zone, Southern Nations - Nationality and People Regional (SNNPR) state of Ethiopia, where A/R-CDM was implemented in pursuit of these twin objectives. Humbo is located between 6°46’48.47 and 6°41’04.28N; and between 37°48’35.44 and 37° 55’14.51E, between altitudinal gradients 1200 and 1900 m.a.s.l. The climate of the study area is characterized by annual temperatures between 25°C and 28°C, and by total annual rainfall between 800 to 1000 mm. The objectives of the study were to quantify the change of above ground and below ground carbon pools of native tree species; to assess the attractiveness of FMNR forestry practices; to examine A/R-CDM contributions to community level SD; and to assess the effectiveness of climate change mitigation policy founded on native tree species-based A/R-CDM. Data regarding above ground biomass (AGB) and below ground biomass (BGB) carbon pools of native tree species was collected through non-destructive techniques to quantify the change in carbon sequestration and associated carbon trading. A multi-stage random cluster household (HH) sampling approach was used to assess the attractiveness of farmer managed natural regeneration (FMNR) forestry practice. To examine the contribution of A/R-CDM to community level SD, three dimensions of SD were evaluated, namely; (local) environmental, social, and economic. Two indicators were considered per each dimension. With regard to local environmental SD, community access to natural resources, as well as changes to the local climate were considered. With regard to the social dimension, job creation and changes to social support structures were considered. With regard to the economic dimension, economic activities of the area and local skill development were considered. Focus group discussions and key informant interviews were used to triangulate the survey as well as to assess policy perspectives. Results revealed that the Humbo native tree species based A/R-CDM, which employed FMNR forestry practices, sequestered a net total of 73,138; 84,848; 103,769 and 111,657 tCO2e along 2011, 2014, 2015 and 2016 years, respectively, across 2,728 ha. In terms of carbon leakage due to fuel wood collection activity displacement, a net zero was found since the average volume of fuelwood collected from the project area, after the area was closed off, was found to be 5.1 - 6.1 M3, while before the area was closed off, that number was 4.3 M3. This was due to the project employing FMNR forestry practices. Similarly, the leakage due to livestock grazing activity displacement also was found to be a net zero, since the number of animals grazing on land adjacent to the project area after four years of the area’s being closed off reached 11,383 cattle, 429 donkeys and 4,108 goats, unlike 8,684 cattle and 2,288 goats before the project. In other words, the number of livestock owned by farmers on the land adjacent to the project site was not adversely affected by the closing off of the site, which prevented grazing on the area allocated to A/R-CDM. The livestock management training provided by project developer improved the farmers’ rearing efficiency. Another expected leakage due to soil pitting for A/R was also found to be nil since soil disturbance did not take place because of FMNR practices. These results indicated that systematic regeneration of native tree species through FMNR forestry practices is an effective method to develop carbon sinks. From the point of view of FMNR attractiveness, the results revealed that the practice improved land cover change. The use of FMNR avoided the projected eight years reforestation investment cost of US$ 2,751,312.00 which could have been used if plantation forestry was undertaken. This showed that Humbo A/R-CDM might not have happened if FMNR is had not been introduced, as CDM has no pre-finance mechanism. With regard to community level SD contributions, the establishment of forest protection and development farmers’ cooperatives, as well as the granting of communal land-user rights certification, resulted in legal ownership of the land to the community, whereas before, the land was considered “no man’s land,” and subject to open access. The land-user rights and carbon ownership in turn empowered the community to sign a contract with an international carbon credit buyer. In terms of the local microclimate, the regeneration of native tree species was correlated with increased rainfall in the area in June, July, August and September (JJAS) and March, April and May (MAM). This suggested that the native tree species based A/R-CDM project played a role in improving the local microclimate. In terms of sociological SD, the study showed that new employment opportunities were created including tree pruning, thinning, forest guarding, and jobs at the community warehouse and community flourmill. The availability of employment opportunities was significantly higher for those who participated in the Humbo A/R-CDM, when compared to those who didn’t. In terms of social support structures, in less than ten years, seven Humbo A/R-CDM project owner farmers’ cooperatives, initially established as owners of the project, evolved into one forest protection and development Union. This enabled the institutionalization of grassroots organizations towards a common communal and international agenda of care for the environment. In terms of economic effects, the project enabled a carbon credit contract worth a total of US$ 3,873,298.00, signed at the sell rate of US$ 4.4 per tCO2e, for a total of 880,295 tCO2e across a 30 year crediting period. This is a new business model for the community, the country, and global businesses, all doing their part in climate change mitigation - CDM. As of the first A/R-CDM verification, the community received a total of US$ 321,807.2 in 2011. Consequently, the community received 373,331.2 in 2014, 456,583.6 in 2015 and 491,290.8 in 2016. In terms of revenue from logging, selective harvesting is planned to take place in years 12, 24 and 36. The community is projected to earn at least US$ 15,150.00 per ha1 (a total of US$ 3.9 million) from the first forest harvest in year 12 alone. These benefits in emission reduction (ER) and SD suggest that massive cross-dimensional benefits were foregone due to the country’s refusal to welcome A/R-CDM in its first commitment period, despite having 36,434,400 ha of land eligible for A/R. The research results in the area of policy perspectives indicated that the Humbo A/R-CDM project, the only one of its kind in Ethiopia, was made possible by environment related constitutional provisions, especially those pertaining to land-user rights, and the existence of a nationally standardized definition of forest that complies with international range. Additionally, the timely ratification of the Kyoto Protocol (KP), the establishment of a designated national authority (DNA) and a letter of approval by the DNA to the project developer were found to be enablers. Yet, defining land use, clarifying carbon ownership rights and bringing an inclusive benefit sharing mechanism for forest carbon are among the key instruments the country has yet to put in place to prove local readiness for such development opportunities. The Humbo A/R-CDM also undertook voluntary assessments to obtain additional certification in the form of the Climate Community Biodiversity (CCB) certification, and was certified to be of gold standard for its premium. However, there were no benefits to the host community and project developer from the CCB gold standard certification. Such ambiguity could have been cleared from the onset. This implied whenever going for market and/or result based climate change mitigation, it is necessary to understand the provisions. This study revealed that the Humbo native tree species-based A/R-CDM via FMNR forestry practices met the CDM twin objectives as specified in Article 12 of the KP in 1997, namely the double aims of achieving mitigations of GHG emissions and assisting developing countries inSD. Yet, more research is needed to understand all eligible A/R carbon pools sequestered at Humbo A/R-CDM site. / Environmental Sciences / Ph. D. (Environmental Management)