The pace of economic development in Uganda has been slow. National output has not increased fast enough. There has been evidence of a long-term deterioration in the terms of trade, elements of export instability and a serious stress in the balance of payments. Employment and rural development have been less than satisfactory. A possible strategy for alleviating these problems involves a more rational utilization of natural resources, of which the forestry sector is one. A review of the past performance of the forestry sector indicated that its contribution to the Gross Domestic Product was minimal, 2.1%. Furthermore, employment in forest management was small and unstable and imports of forest products have increased faster than exports. On the other hand, forest industries were labour-intensive, ranking second to the textile industry and contributing 10% of the total employment in manufacturing. The lack of a sound forest policy and a quantifiable production goal was identified as a possible cause of the poor performance. Forestry was relegated to the position of a handmaid to agriculture and the size of the national forest estate was limited to a minimum of 8% of the total land area of the country. If the forestry sector is to contribute substantially to economic development, it must be well planned. To achieve this the identification of optimum product-oriented management models for forest lands is necessary. By the year 2000 A.D. maximum consumption requirements 3 in million M were estimated to be 46.85 for fuelwood and charcoal, 2.89 for poles and posts, 1.0 3 for sawnwood and sleepers and 0.15 for wood-based panels; and 0.25 million metric tons for paper and paperboard. Based on roundwood supply projections at current levels of management and timber prices, the forest resource of Uganda will be unable to meet the anticipated demand by the year 2000. Increased utilization of the lesser-known species in the tropical high forests is a feasible medium-term strategy for avoiding timber scarcity. In addition, preliminary studies indicate that species such as Cyanometra alexandrii (CH. Wright) offer real promise in the export sector and should, therefore, be processed. However, for a much more sustained production with attendant improvements in quality and yield per hectare, a greater effort towards forest plantations is advocated. Five product-oriented softwood (Pinus patula Schl. Cham and P. caribaea Morelet var. hondurensis) management models were forumulated and tested for efficiency. Two of the models had close spacing (2200 stems/ha) with a light (IA) and a heavy (IB) thinning. Model IC had intermediate spacing (1800 stems/ha) with two heavy thinnings; ID with wide spacing (900 stems/ha) and a heavy thinning; and IE, the current management regime, has a wide/intermediate spacing (1370 stems/ha) with three thinnings. The "VYTL" simulation model developed at the Commonwealth Forestry Institute (Oxford) was used to produce yield tables for the management models. The models appropriate for Eucalyptus grandis (Hill) Maiden had already been adequately analysed elsewhere. In terms of efficiency, model IC had the highest mean 3 annual increment (29.4 M³/ha/year at age 20) and ID attained a mean dbh of 20 cm earliest, at age 11. Using the Faustmann formula and assuming a constant timber price (models IA, IB and IC) and a size-responsive revenue function (models ID and IE), the optimum rotations in years were 17 for IA, 19 for IB, 22 for IC, 27 for ID and 29 for IE. Substantial economies in the use of land can be achieved by adopting the appropriate management strategies. Model IA was best suited for pulpwood production and IE for veneer and saw logs. For an integrated pulpwood/veneer and saw log production, model IA was most suited if greater emphasis was on pulpwood and IC if the emphasis was on veneer and saw logs. Based on the revenue assumptions for the determination of rotation length, model IE had the largest amount of present net worth (U.shs 3374/ha at 6% discount rate) and ID, the highest internal rate of return (10.50 percent). When either the amount of initial capital outlay, or total cost compounded to rotation age required to produce a unit volume of wood was used to measure cost-effectiveness, model IE was the most efficient. Taking into account all these efficiency rankings, model IE was selected as the optimum product-oriented management strategy for veneer and saw log production, IA for pulpwood and IC for an integrated pulpwood/veneer and saw log production. Having identified the optimum management strategies, their implications for economic development in terms of foreign exchange earnings, investment requirements, employment and rural development were assessed. The greatest opportunities for foreign exchange earnings were in import-and product-substitution. The economic values of substitution locally produced softwood sawnwood for prime grade hardwoods on the domestic market and for imports of softwood sawnwood were estimated to be U.shs 1400 and 727 per M³ respectively. Direct or seedling credit schemes for eucalypt woodlot farms were recommended and will require a maximum investment of U.shs 1461 million and employ 183 thousand persons per annum. For softwood plantations, a maximum investment of U.shs 213 million and employing 62,000 persons annually will be needed. Due to the existence of an artificial surplus of land, a two-pronged strategy of forest area expansion and intensive management was considered optimal for Uganda. It was estimated that through adoption of the optimum intensive management models, the size of the national forest estate should be increased from the current 8% to about 17% of the total land area of the country to avoid future timber scarcity. To lessen the disparities in the standard of living among regions, industrial plantations should be located in economically depressed areas. A land availability index, expressed as a function of regional rate of land utilization, carrying capacity, actual population density and real per capita income was used to determine potential sites for establishing plantations. Those districts with land availability indices below the national average were considered economically depressed. They were Madi, West Nile, Acholi (East and West), Lango, Mubende and Bunyoro, in a decreasing order of severity. The last four offer greatest promise for plantation forestry. Finally, the management strategies identified in this study should provide the main basis for sound social cost-benefit analyses of forestry projects. It is hoped the projects will subsequently be adopted in the next development plan of Uganda. / Forestry, Faculty of / Graduate

This dissertation consists of three essays on private landowners' response to incentives for carbon sequestration in forests. The first essay examines private landowner response to incentives for carbon sequestration through various combinations of intermediate management practices. The second essay focuses on agricultural landowners' willingness to participate in an incentive program for carbon sequestration through afforestation, and estimates the potential for carbon sequestration from afforestation, as well as its cost. The third study examines relative performances of incentive targeting strategies for forest carbon sequestration under asymmetric information given spatially heterogeneous land types. The first essay uses an econometric approach to analyze the factors affecting non-industrial private forest landowners' choice of forest management practices, and examines how these choices might change in response to the use of incentives for carbon sequestration. I use estimated parameters to simulate the carbon sequestration potential for different combinations of management practices, and compare the effectiveness and costs of performance-based and practice-based incentive payment schemes in the Western U.S. The results suggest that incentive payments can increase the probability that desirable combinations of management practices are adopted, and particularly that incentives targeting increased fertilization yield the highest carbon sequestration potential. I also find that a performance-based payment scheme produces higher carbon sequestration than a practice-based payments scheme. However, the annual sequestration potential of intermediate forest management in response to incentive payment is not as large as the sequestration potential of afforestation. The second essay uses a survey-based stated preference approach to predict landowners' willingness to participate in a tree planting program for carbon sequestration as a function of various factors affecting landowners' decision making and different levels of incentive payments. The estimation results show that the annual payment for carbon sequestration significantly and positively affects landowners' stated level of enrollment in a tree planting program. I use the estimated parameters to conduct regional level simulations of carbon sequestration in response to incentive payments. These simulations show that the carbon supply function in the Pacific Northwest region is steeper than in the Southeast region because of the lower adoption rate and less available lands. The national level carbon supply functions derived from this study are steeper than those obtained from bottom-up engineering approaches and optimization models, and are in the same range as those from revealed preference approach studies. The third essay uses both a conceptual analysis and a numerical analysis to examine the relative performances of incentive programs for carbon sequestration using alternative targeting criteria in the presence of asymmetric information and heterogeneity in costs and benefits. The results show that in the presence of asymmetric information, the combination of high cost-high benefit variability and negative correlation, which is the combination that achieves the greatest benefit gains under perfect information, can result in the greatest benefit losses. Additionally, a comparison of two targeting schemes shows that if cost variability is greater than benefit variability with negative correlation, the benefit achieved under benefit-cost ratio targeting can be lower than that under acreage targeting, so that an optimal targeting strategy under perfect information may no longer be optimal under asymmetric information. / Graduation date: 2013

The study investigates farmers' decision to afforest marginal agricultural land to create carbon sinks in western Canada. A real option model, which incorporates price risks related to carbon and timber revenues as well as opportunity cost uncertainty, is used to assess the impact of a carbon market on farmers' afforestation decision. Irreversibility of the decision is also modeled by including sunk cost of forest establishment and the cost of reversing the afforestation process. In addition, the non-permanence impact on the profitability of afforestation was analyzed by assessing the effect of two non-permanence carbon accounting schemes. / Results indicate that both, actual non-permanence policies and the presence of real options, have a significant negative impact on afforestation incentives. However, the carbon market has a positive effect as it increases the expected revenues to afforestation and also represents a diversification opportunity. Yet, even in the presence of a carbon market the investment barrier remains considerable. Despite the positive effect of the carbon market, results show that unless carbon prices reach levels well above $100/tC a subsidization of afforestation cost is needed in order to generate substantial GHG abatement from marginal agricultural land afforestation in western Canada.

Thesis (MScFor (Forest and Wood Science))--University of Stellenbosch, 2009. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This thesis assesses the livelihoods of rural households in a proposed green field forestry area, located in Sanga District of Niassa province, Mozambique. The livelihood analysis was used to analyze potential socio-economic impacts of introducing forest plantations to rural households located within the proposed afforestation area. The study made use of household interviews, key informant interviews and secondary data. The sustainable livelihoods framework was used in the research process to develop the household questionnaire and to identify livelihood strategies. Data was analyzed using 331 household questionnaires collected throughout the proposed afforestation area in various communities in the study area. Findings from the study indicated that there is minimal wealth gaps between rural households; but that the introduction of the forestry industry and the subsequent employment created thereof may result in larger wealth gaps between wage earning and non-wage earning households. The study further concludes by linking the potential socio-economic impacts with mitigation recommendations that could be harmonized with FSC Standard requirements for forestry companies interested in developing a forest industry in the study area. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie tesis ontleed die lewensbestaan van landelike huishoudings in ‘n voorgestelde nuwe bosbou area, gelee in die Sanga distrik van die Niassa provinsie, Mosambiek. Die lewensbestaan ontleding was gebruik om die potensiele sosio-ekonomiese impak van die vestiging van bosbou plantasies op landelike huishoudings in die voorgestelde bebossings area te analiseer. Hierdie studie het gebruik gemaak van huishoudelike onderhoude, sleutel informant onderhoude asook sekondere data. Die volhoubare lewensbestaan raamwerk was gebruik in die navorsings proses om die huishoudelike onderhoude te ontwikkel en om die huishoudelike strategiee te identifiseer. Data was geanaliseer van 331 huishoudelike onderhoude afgeneem in verskeie gemeenskappe binne die studie areas. Bevindinge van die studie het aangetoon dat daar minimale inkomste gapings is tussen landelike huishoudings, maar met die vestiging van kommersiele bosbou en geassosieerde werskeppings moontlikhede, mag groter inkomste gapings ontwikkel tussen huishoudings wat inkostes uit bosbou verdien en huishoudings daarsonder. Verder het die studie aangetoon dat daar ‚n potensiele sosiale impak is van mense wat na die area migreer en dat sulke impakte deur FSC sertifisering beheer kan word.

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