China is growing old before it is growing affluent. This situation is not unique to China; at least three other countries are in the same situation. While some of these had family planning campaigns, none had a one-child policy which implies that one-child policy is not the direct cause of this predicament. While China’s working-age share of the population has peaked, any shortages of low-skill labor currently observed in China are primarily caused by the hukou system and its barriers to labor mobility. A reform of the hukou system would secure ample supplies of migrant labor even in the face of mildly declining working-age share of the population. The absence of reforms could mean the arrival of a policy-induced Lewis Turning Point, prompting a premature and potentially counterproductive reorientation of industry. China does not yet possess an advantage in capital and technology intensive production and thus risks falling into the middle-income trap if the reorientation of industry takes place too early. If the Lewis Point can be postponed and the current rate of capital stock growth can be maintained for another decade or two, China might be able to avoid the middle-income trap. Both China’s and Japan’s current pension systems are unsustainable and their PAYGO nature is detrimental to long-run economic growth, especially so for aging societies. It is possible for China to make the system sustainable in the long if reforms are implemented while the transition costs are manageable. Although China is aging, the pace will be relatively slow until 2030. It will still take many years before the country is as old as Japan is a present. A low debt-to-GDP ratio also offers China more flexibility than Japan currently enjoys. / published_or_final_version / China Development Studies / Master / Master of Arts in China Development Studies

"The purpose of this thesis is to examine the age structure of the population of Texas as it existed in 1960, and insofar as possible to trace important changes and trends in the older group from 1900 to 1960. The qualification derives from the fact that at this time not all of the data from the 1960 census are available, and hence many trends can be described only through 1950. Where appropriate, the structure and trends characteristic of the total population will be described, usually for comparative purposes."-- leaf 1.

written by Cheung Man-Chun Doris. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2000. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 121-125). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS --- p.iii / LIST OF TABLES --- p.iv / LIST OF APPENDICES --- p.v / Chapter CHAPTER 1 --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter CHAPTER 2 --- BACKGROUND OF AGEING IN SELECTED COUNTRIES / Chapter A. --- "Demographic Facts: World, More Developed and Less Developed Regions" --- p.6 / Chapter B. --- "Demographic Facts: Germany, US, Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong" --- p.9 / Chapter C. --- Demographic Changes of Hong Kong --- p.12 / Chapter D. --- Fertility-dominated or Mortality-dominated ageing? --- p.14 / Chapter CHAPTER 3 --- LITERATURE REVIEW / Chapter A. --- Ageing measurements --- p.16 / Chapter B. --- Relationship between Savings and Investment --- p.17 / Chapter C. --- Relationship between Ageing and Savings --- p.19 / Chapter D. --- Relationship between Ageing and Growth --- p.23 / Chapter E. --- Relationship between Savings and Growth --- p.24 / Chapter F. --- Summary --- p.26 / Chapter CHAPTER 4 --- EMPIRICAL SPECIFICATIONS AND DATA / Chapter A. --- Expectations of variables in Savings equation andin Growth equation --- p.30 / Chapter B. --- Specifications for Panel Data Analysis / Chapter (i) --- The Data --- p.36 / Chapter (ii) --- Methodology --- p.36 / Chapter (iii) --- Specifications --- p.38 / Chapter C. --- Specifications for Cross-sectional Analysis --- p.39 / Chapter D. --- Pros and Cons of Using Panel and Cross-sectional Data --- p.40 / Chapter CHAPTER 5 --- ESTIMATATION RESULTS / Chapter A. --- Cross-sectional Data Analysis / Chapter (i) --- How does Ageing Affect Savings? --- p.45 / Chapter (ii) --- How does Ageing Affect Economic Growth? --- p.47 / Chapter B. --- Panel Data Analysis / Chapter (i) --- How does Ageing Affect Savings? --- p.48 / Chapter (ii) --- How does Ageing Affect Economic Growth? --- p.54 / Chapter C. --- Comparison between the Results from the Analyses of the Cross-sectional Data and the Panel Data --- p.56 / Chapter D. --- Reconciliation between the Conflicts --- p.57 / Chapter (i) --- Difference in the Length of Estimation Periods --- p.59 / Chapter (ii) --- Cross-sectional Effect vs. Time Series Effect --- p.60 / Chapter (iii) --- Sampling Problems --- p.66 / Chapter a) --- Results from Cutting Outliers (Full Samples) --- p.67 / Chapter b) --- Results from Cutting Outliers (Non-poor Country Samples) --- p.69 / Chapter c) --- Results from Entering both Ageing Variables Together (Full Samples) --- p.72 / Chapter d) --- Results from Entering both Ageing Variables Together (Non-poor Countries Samples) --- p.73 / Chapter E. --- Further Examination on the Impact of Ageing on the Economic Growth --- p.74 / Chapter CHAPTER 6 --- CONCLUSION --- p.78 / TABLES --- p.82 / APPENDIX --- p.113 / BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.121

Leung Chi Ping. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2000. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 120-123). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Abstract --- p.i / Acknowledgement --- p.iii / Table of Contents --- p.iv / List of Tables --- p.v / List of Appendices --- p.vi / Chapter 1. --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 2. --- Literature Review --- p.4 / Chapter 2.1 --- Review of Literature on Population and Economic Growth --- p.4 / Chapter 2.2 --- Review of Literature on Human Capital and Economic Growth --- p.7 / Chapter 2.3 --- Review of Literature on Population Aging and Demographic Transition --- p.14 / Chapter 2.4 --- "Summary of Results, Objective and Hypotheses" --- p.23 / Chapter 3. --- Data Description --- p.27 / Chapter 4. --- Empirical Specifications，Estimation Results and Analysis --- p.29 / Chapter 4.1 --- Cross-sectional Regressions --- p.29 / Chapter 4.2 --- Panel Regressions --- p.54 / Chapter 5. --- Conclusions --- p.72 / Tables --- p.74 / Appendices --- p.114 / References --- p.120

The research set out to explore the nature of challenges in distribution of old age pensions in Lesotho. Poor institutional capacity failed the implementing agency, the Department of Pensions; to set up competent administrative structures to run run the pensions effectively and efficiently. A number of challenges have been identified, some of which were: inadequate supervision of the paying officers, fraud by workers and community agents, missing funds, insufficient resources, inadequate administrative capacity, overworked employees, faulty targeting, soft and discriminatory approach to non-compliance with rules and multiple use of identity documents by recipients. On the other hand, a number of opportunities have been identified to counteract the challenges. The main recommendation of the study was the engagement of mobile phone-based money transfer facilities to transfer the old age pensions from the government to the recipients. The Department of Pensions should make use of baseline database like information from civil registration agency like the Ministry of Home Affairs to confirm the validity of the pension recipients. Other recommendations included moving the division of old age pensions from the Pensions Department to the Ministry of Social Development which is the controlling body for other forms of social grants in Lesotho. The Ministry of Social Development is regarded as well equipped with qualified staff and facilities to deal with vulnerable people like the elderly.

In this analysis, I estimate the impact of the changing relative size of the adult male population, classified by age and education groups, on the earnings of employed males living in 502 Brazilian local labor markets during four time periods between 1970 and 2000. The effects of shifts in the age distribution of the working age population have been studied in relation to the effect of the baby-boom generation on the earnings of different cohorts in the United States. However, the question has received little attention in the context of the countries in Asia and Latin America, which are now experiencing substantial shifts in their age-education distributions. Taking advantage of the huge variation across Brazilian local labor markets, the models in this research suggest that age-education groups are not perfect substitutes, so that own-cohort-education size depresses earnings, as expected by the theory. Compositional shifts are influential, attesting that this approach represents a fruitful way of studying this central problem in economic development, going beyond the effects normally analyzed by formal labor market equations. / text

The concept of population ageing is a development issue that has received much attention due to the demographic transition that is occurring globally, marked by declining levels of fertility and mortality. Therefore, the implications of population ageing for older persons within the context of Social Development was examined from the perspective of government and non government officials. The study was confined to older persons and the policies and programmes implemented by the Department of Social Development. The study employed an exploratory research design within a qualitative paradigm. Semi-structured interviews and a questionnaire were distributed to officials in the nine provinces. Thirty six questionnaires were received and qualitative methods of data analysis were used to analyse and interpret the data. The main finding of the study is that there is congruence in what government officials and the non government officials view as implications for older persons. Central to this is that the issue of ageing does not receive attention on the agenda of government. The top five priorities for older persons are healthy ageing, economic security, community/home based care services for older persons, having care and support systems for older persons and an improved quality of life/poverty alleviation. Based on the demographic determinants of population ageing, the findings are that there will be an increased demand for services for older persons which might place a strain on the social assistance and health care programmes. The issue of ageing was viewed positively as an opportunity by government officials and pessimistically as a challenge by NGO’s. The most common problems in old age is a reliance on the younger generation and or the state for their care and support, abuse, high levels of illiteracy and the burden of care for their children and grandchildren. The future older person is likely to be in better health and better educated than the older person of today if the necessary public investments are made now in these areas. The study makes recommendations for the adoption of a South African plan of action on ageing, inter-sectoral budgeting, development of specialised programmes, review of current policies and legislation for older persons, strengthening the partnership with the NGO sector and facilitating ageing mainstreaming within government programmes. / Sociology / M.A. (Social Development)

The concept of population ageing is a development issue that has received much attention due to the demographic transition that is occurring globally, marked by declining levels of fertility and mortality. Therefore, the implications of population ageing for older persons within the context of Social Development was examined from the perspective of government and non government officials. The study was confined to older persons and the policies and programmes implemented by the Department of Social Development. The study employed an exploratory research design within a qualitative paradigm. Semi-structured interviews and a questionnaire were distributed to officials in the nine provinces. Thirty six questionnaires were received and qualitative methods of data analysis were used to analyse and interpret the data. The main finding of the study is that there is congruence in what government officials and the non government officials view as implications for older persons. Central to this is that the issue of ageing does not receive attention on the agenda of government. The top five priorities for older persons are healthy ageing, economic security, community/home based care services for older persons, having care and support systems for older persons and an improved quality of life/poverty alleviation. Based on the demographic determinants of population ageing, the findings are that there will be an increased demand for services for older persons which might place a strain on the social assistance and health care programmes. The issue of ageing was viewed positively as an opportunity by government officials and pessimistically as a challenge by NGO’s. The most common problems in old age is a reliance on the younger generation and or the state for their care and support, abuse, high levels of illiteracy and the burden of care for their children and grandchildren. The future older person is likely to be in better health and better educated than the older person of today if the necessary public investments are made now in these areas. The study makes recommendations for the adoption of a South African plan of action on ageing, inter-sectoral budgeting, development of specialised programmes, review of current policies and legislation for older persons, strengthening the partnership with the NGO sector and facilitating ageing mainstreaming within government programmes. / Sociology / M.A. (Development Studies)