Structural-time series models have not gained much ground in commodity market modeling despite the overwhelming popularity of time series approaches in forecasting and dynamic analyses. This dissertation contributes by applying developments in seasonal cointegration and structural-time series analysis (e.g., Zellner and Palm (1974); Hsiao (1997); Lee (1992); Franses and Kunst (1999); Ghysels and Osborn, 2001) to the study of agricultural commodity markets. The focus is on three research themes. The first theme investigates the role of cointegration and seasonal cointegration for market data, an issue considered timely because most applications assume deterministic seasonal components. The second issue breaks new ground in agricultural commodity modeling by introducing a new dynamic simultaneous equation model (DSEM) that accounts for seasonal cointegration. Lastly, the research compares the out-of-sample forecasting performance and impulse responses of four multi-equation models for the U.S. wheat market. The forecasting comparisons apply recent developments on testing for differences in mean-squared-errors. The study adopts a structural model for the U.S. wheat market and estimates four econometric specifications: a vector error-correction model without seasonal cointegration (VECM), a VECM with seasonal cointegration (SVECM), a DSEM with cointegration (CDSEM), and a DSEM with seasonal cointegration (SCDSEM). The conclusions may be summarized as follows. First, quarterly data in the U.S. wheat market (1975:03-1999:04) have seasonal unit roots, therefore, a VECM or DSEM should be specified. Second, in a forecasting context, seasonally cointegrated VECMs perform uniformly better that their nonseasonal counterpart. DSEM with seasonal cointegration, however, perform better than VECMs at longer forecast horizons. Lastly, the impulse response analysis and dynamic multiplier comparisons lead to one salient conclusion, omission of seasonal cointegration components when significant generates unexpected response functions and dynamic multipliers. Of particular interest for future research is an assessment of the small sample properties of impulse response functions for structural-time series models with seasonal cointegration. From a more pure economic perspective, a similar structural-time series analysis to other agricultural markets seems timely given the new finding that these models may outperform other multiple time series models that are often used in empirical work.

The traditional view of the agricultural community as a good steward of the environment has been challenged by increasing concerns about the complex relationship between agricultural production activities and environmental quality. Agriculture provides a large range of products to satisfy human needs. It has also been singled out as major source of water pollution. Largely improved surface water quality has been assessed in the U.S. since the enactment of the Clean Water Act. However, efforts to reduce water pollution continue, targeting discharges from identifiable sources of water pollution and diffused discharges from nonpoint sources. Agricultural producers are encouraged to voluntarily implement site specific management practices known as best management practices (BMPs) to reduce the delivery and transport of agriculturally derived pollutants such as sediment, nutrients, pesticides, salt and pathogens to surface and ground waters. Louisiana is not a major U.S. milk producer. However, the dairy industry represents one of the most important animal agricultural industries in the state, and the need to adopt specific practices to improve water quality has become greater in the industry. This study examined the current implementation of BMPs by Louisiana dairy producers and investigated the likelihood of a dairy producer to adopt a conservation practice. Data for the analysis was based on a mail survey of the population of dairy producers conducted in Summer, 2001. Univariate, bivariate and multivariate probit analyses allowed for estimating the probability of a dairy producer adopting one, two or a set of BMPs, given the economic and non-economic factors hypothesized as determinant in the decision to adopt. Principal component analysis was used to reduce the number of explanatory variables needed for the multivariate probit analysis. Findings of this study emphasized the significant influence of farm size, milk productivity per cow, frequency of meetings with Louisiana Cooperative Extension Service (LCES) personnel, and producer's risk aversion on the increased adoption of BMP. Results also pointed out the need to address the lack of information regarding the legislation and the efforts to control nonpoint sources of water pollution through the use of BMPs, and the need of expanded incentives to induce producers' adoption.

Using a sample from the seven largest metropolitan areas in the United States, (Denver, Chicago, Los Angeles, Atlanta, New Orleans, New York, and Houston), consumer attitudes concerning agricultural biotechnology is examined. Conjoint analysis is used to examine consumer preferences for the labeling of biotech foods. The study examines the relationship between the consumers knowledge and attitudes regarding biotech foods and their preferences for food labels. Consumers attitudes regarding a healthy diet, and their risk perceptions regarding biotech foods were found to have a significant effect on the general use of food labels and preferences for labeling of biotech foods. The most significant finding of the study is that consumers prefer mandatory labeling of biotech foods, rather than FDAs current voluntary labeling policy. The conjoint results show that the most important attribute regarding a biotech label was the presence of a logo, contributing 48.7 % to the preference rating. A text disclosure describing the benefits of the biotech ingredient was determined to be the second most relevant attribute, accounting for 40.87% of the respondents preferences for labeling. The third most important attribute (contributing 10.43%) was the location of the logo on the principal display panel (PDP) of the product package.

Risk is an important concern in the management of a farm business. The rising input prices along with the variability in the farm commodity prices may result in a risk environment. Government programs have generally provided income support to farmers. However, there has been considerable discussion regarding this support in recent years. The farm act of 2002 and farm bill of 1999 are good examples of such discussions. These uncertainties emphasize the need to improve information for farm's income risk management, and make some one ask if there is not out there any alternative way of managing income risk besides government intervention. The literature shows that marketing strategies may be used to improve income risk management on farmers. This study is aimed at showing how pre-harvest marketing strategies may be used to manage income risk, using a portfolio approach in which three chosen marketing strategies are combined in a portfolio. The optimal marketing strategy combination is estimated assuming a safety first decision model. The optimal marketing strategy is then used to estimate optimal production portfolio under the specified scenarios. Cash marketing and optimal pre-harvest marketing scenarios are then evaluated in a financial model. Results generally indicate that opportunity to improve farm profitability, liquidity, and risk exist for the optimal pre-harvest marketing strategy. Results indicate that the optimal marketing strategy would include for the corn case 24% cash on spot marketing strategy, 54% forward contract marketing strategy, and 22% hedge to arrive marketing strategy. For the case of Soybean, the optimal marketing strategy would include 37% cash on spot marketing strategy, 30% forward contract marketing strategy, and 33% hedge to arrive marketing strategy. Comparison between optimal pre-harvest marketing strategy and cash on spot marketing strategy shows that the optimal pre-harvest marketing strategy has higher rate of returns to assets and equity, high debt repayment capacity, lower level of risk, higher level of liquidity, and represents a situation in which farmers has higher level of probability of repaying debt in nine out of 10 years.

The general objective of this study was to provide updated estimates of value of the green industry in Louisiana. Data collection was conducted for the production sector (Nursery Growers and Sod Producers, and Landscape Design, Installation and Maintenance Services) and the Golf Industry. In addition, expenditures on green industry products and services incurred by other sectors were obtained. Among those sectors were churches and cemeteries, public schools (elementary and secondary), public colleges and universities, private schools (elementary, secondary and college/university), parish/city grounds, state parks, road shoulder and median maintenance, and airports. To conduct the surveys, listings from those sectors were obtained from sources such as the Louisiana Department of Agriculture and Forestry, Louisiana Department of Education, Louisiana Department of Transportation, Louisiana Board of Cemeteries, American Business Directory and internet sources. Questionnaires were developed for the three main groups based on previous studies, and a single page questionnaire was developed to collect expenditures from other sectors. Survey procedures followed Dillmans methodology. Using IMPLAN, a 1999 input-output model was built. This model provided results of direct, indirect, induced and total effects of the green industry in specific sectors such as Production, Golf Industry,Retail, Other, and an overall impact on Louisianas economy. Those impacts were measured in four categories: gross sales, personal income, gross state product and employment, and multiplier tables were reported. Economic impact by the Production sector on gross sales was estimated at $605 million, which includes Greenhouse and Nursery Products ($119 million) and Landscape and Horticultural Services ($266 million), while the impact of the Golf Industry on gross sales was estimated at $151 million. The economic impact by the Retail Sector and Horticultural Expenditures Reported by Other Industries were estimated at $557 million and $872 million, respectively. Total economic impact by the green industry on Louisianas economy was estimated at $2.21 billion and 56,685 jobs were generated.

The broiler operations in the United States, which are concentrated in the southeast and south central regions are unevenly distributed within those states. The major concern for Louisiana¡¯s broiler industry is that even though its production is increasing every year it is relatively low compared to many other southeastern states. This study analyzes the relative importance of factors that affect location decision of a broiler complex. A national survey of broiler industry executives is conducted to analyze site-specific factors related to the broiler-complex location problem. Conjoint analysis is used to measure the relative importance of each attribute in the location decision. Three different conjoint models are constructed based on factors related to broiler growing, feed mill, and broiler processing enterprise. A bridged experimental design is used to link the three models. Distance between feed mill and growers, cost of feed ingredients, and community attitude toward the broiler industry are found to be the most important factors influencing the location decision of broiler growing, feed mill, and broiler processing respectively. Results from bridging design indicate that cost of feed ingredients is the most important attribute affecting the location of a broiler complex. As cost of feed ingredients was found to be the most critical factor in the location decision of their broiler complex, this study concludes that Louisiana should analyze the factors that can lower the costs of importing feed and / or analyze other important factors affecting the broiler complex location decision such as growers concentration, community attitude toward the broiler industry, and labor costs. A future research can be directed toward analyzing the cost differentials in the southern region and also identifying the factors that affect community¡¯s attitude toward the broiler industry.

The flow of nursery products through the different market channels has changed over the past decade. As mass-merchandisers market share increased, buyers of nursery product imposed conditions on nursery growers in terms of their business practices as well as the presentation of the product itself. This study analyzed changes in contractual terms between buyer and sellers for two market channels; mass-merchandisers and garden centers. The items evaluated were that product information tags be applied, barcode stickers be applied, special containers be used, transportation to retailer be paid by the seller, returnable shipping equipment be supplied by the grower, on-time delivery be guaranteed by the grower, unsold merchandise be taken back by the grower, some minimum volume be supplied by the grower, and continuous inventory replenishment be used. Data were collected via mail using the Ornamental Horticulture Producer Survey, and non-respondents were contacted by telephone or additional mailings of the questionnaire. The resulting data were compiled and tabulated for the statistical analysis. A McNemars test was conducted to evaluate whether proportions of items required by the buyer to be included in the terms of a contract had changed from 1996 to 2001 within the two market channels. A model was designed for each of the aforementioned nine items to determine which business characteristics of the grower were associated with him/her accepting the terms imposed by the buyer, by market channel. Analysis of the dataset indicated that, over the time period of the study, more items were included in the terms of contract in 2001 than in 1996. New practices in the nursery industry appear to be led by mass-merchandisers, while the garden center channel follow suit. The level of technology, specifically Internet use, was found to be closely related to the inclusion or exclusion of items in the terms of contracting.

This thesis used a mail survey to collect data on homeowners' preferences and perceptions regarding termite prevention and control in four metropolitan areas of Louisiana (Monroe, Alexandria, Baton Rouge, and New Orleans). Respondents were asked to rank four different alternatives differing in cost, treatment choice, and number of inspections on termite control options. These ordered preference data were then analyzed using a contingent ranking method to determine the homeowner's choice for termite control. It was found that more than three-fourths (77%) of homeowners preferred to control termites and were willing to pay for it. In addition to contingent ranking, willingness to pay (WTP) value was elicited to examine homeowners' real and hypothetical willingness to pay for termite control. Real willingness to pay for termite control was calculated based on the house size and the respondent's current termite control contract. A hypothetical willingness to pay question was asked immediately after respondents were asked to rank the four alternative termite control options. The first question asked a dichotomous choice to respondents regarding whether they were willing to pay $0.56 for termite control. In the second stage, they were asked to state the WTP amount in an open format. The estimated average annual hypothetical and real willingness to pay for a homeowner were 32 cents and 16 cents per square foot of home living space, respectively, indicating that there was a significant level of hypothetical bias in the elicitation process. Length of home ownership, living space, market value of home, attitude about whether or not respondents consider termites to be an existing problem in their neighborhoods, income, ethnicity, and gender were significant variables in determining respondents' willingness to pay for termite control. The differences between hypothetical and real willingness to pay were attributed to length of home ownership, living space, attitude about whether or not respondents consider termites to be an existing problem in their neighborhoods, and income.

Agriculture has been identified as one of the major sources of nonpoint water pollution due to discharges running off farmland. This study assessed the current adoption of Best Management Practices (BMPs) in the Louisiana sugarcane industry and provided policy recommendations based on the empirical results. Fifteen BMPs recommended by Louisiana State University Agricultural Center were examined in three categories: Soil Erosion and Sediment Control, Nutrient Management, and Pesticide Management. Based on neoclassical economic principles of individuals utility maximization, this study evaluated seven multivariate probit models using primary data collected from a mail survey of Louisianas sugarcane producers. The results indicated that remarkable progress has been achieved in BMPs promotion since 1999. The primary factors that significantly impacted BMP adoption were: awareness of the Master Farmer Program for sugarcane, farm size, ownership, and farmers risk attitude. It is recommended that educational programs provided by LSU AgCenter continue to play a vital role in promoting sugarcane BMPs .

Aquaculture industries in the U.S. generate $1 billion in farm-level sales. Genetic improvement of fish stocks may be a way to increase the market share of aquaculture within the U.S. seafood market as well as the market share within the world market. This study evaluates the preferences, beliefs, and opinions of aquaculture producers across the U.S. about topics such as cryopreservation, genetic improvement, and the future of the aquaculture industry. Willingness-to-pay values for specific genetic improvements by aquaculture grow-out producers were elicited. A national survey of aquaculture producers was used to elicit the information used in the analysis. The survey included sections for hatchery producers, foodfish grow-out producers, and demographic information. Hatchery producers were asked questions relating to their production methods and costs as well as their opinions and knowledge about cryopreservation and its benefits. Producer opinions of cryopreservation services were analyzed using an ordered probit model. Choice-based conjoint analysis was used to elicit relative importance and willingness-to-pay estimates for specific genetic attributes from foodfish grow-out producers. The attributes were growth rate, disease resistance, and resistance to 10% lower dissolved oxygen levels. The choice-based responses were analyzed using a conditional logit model. Contingent valuation questions were also asked to grow-out producers so that willingness-to-pay estimates for supply reliability and genetic uniformity could be calculated. The contingent valuation responses were analyzed using a double-hurdle model. Results showed that the hybrid striped bass hatchery producers were the most interested in cryopreservation services. Growth rate proved to be the most important genetic attribute available to foodfish grow-out producers. Producers were willing to pay a 22% price premium to acquire a fish stock with a 20% improved growth rate. Trout producers were willing to pay the most for supply reliability. Overall, producers were willing to pay an 18% premium to improve the genetic uniformity and increase the reliability of supply. This research shows an interest in the genetic improvement of aquaculture foodfish stocks as well as an interest by hatcheries for cryopreservation services. More research is needed to determine the specific costs hatcheries would need to bear to incorporate cryopreservation services.