published_or_final_version / Geography and Geology / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

As a growing developing economy, China impressed the world by its astonishing growth rate and fast structural transformation. Mean-while, the openness also increased a lot after China adopted the reform and opening up policy in 1978. This paper first constructs real GDP, capital and labor series in China from 1952 to 2012 following instructions by some scholars, and then uses the simple growth accounting method to show that the agricultural productivity growth plays an important role in structural transformation: higher agricultural productivity growth accompanies with further structural transformation, or, lower agricultural employment share. And the role does not change much when the openness of China becomes higher, inconsistent from the outcome of Matsuyama (1992) at a first glance. / 作為一個在成長的發展中國家，中國驚人的增長率和快速的結構轉型給世界留下了深刻的印象。同時，在中國1978 年實行改革開放的政策後，中國的開放程度也大大增加。本文根據一些學者提供的思路構建了中國1952 至2012 年的實際GDP、勞動力及資本的時間序列，然後用簡單增長核算方法展示了農業的生產率增長在結構轉型方面的重要角色：更高的農業相對生產率增長會伴隨更深的結構轉型。當中國的開放程度變高時，這種角色沒有太多改變。初步地看，這和Matsuyama (1992)文中的描述並不一致。 / Chen, Xilu. / Thesis M.Phil. Chinese University of Hong Kong 2015. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 83-87). / Abstracts also in Chinese. / Title from PDF title page (viewed on 11, October, 2016). / Detailed summary in vernacular field only.

The objective of this study is to evaluate the changes in import and export demand in China and India on the United States and global agriculture in 2018. A spatial equilibrium model is developed to optimize production and trade in China, India, and other major importing and exporting regions in the world. This research focuses on four primary crops: wheat, com, rice and soybeans. In the model China and India are divided into 31 and 14 producing and consuming regions, respectively. The model also includes five exporting countries and ten importing countries/regions. The results indicate that India will be able to stay largely self-sufficient in 2018 and China will increase its soybean and com imports to meet rising domestic demand. The research also gives perspectives on production and trade in the United States and other major exporting and importing countries.