The objective of this study is to evaluate the changes in import and export demand in China and India on the United States and global agriculture in 2018. A spatial equilibrium model is developed to optimize production and trade in China, India, and other major importing and exporting regions in the world. This research focuses on four primary crops: wheat, com, rice and soybeans. In the model China and India are divided into 31 and 14 producing and consuming regions, respectively. The model also includes five exporting countries and ten importing countries/regions. The results indicate that India will be able to stay largely self-sufficient in 2018 and China will increase its soybean and com imports to meet rising domestic demand. The research also gives perspectives on production and trade in the United States and other major exporting and importing countries.

published_or_final_version / Geography and Geology / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

Participation in the agricultural land district enrollment and development rights acquisition program of the Maryland Agricultural Land Preservation Foundation (MALPF) is examined as the adoption and diffusion of an innovative agricultural land preservation policy by Maryland farmland owners. In personal interviews, each of 104 study participants answered a series of 128 questions relating to nine hypotheses on MALPF program participation. Point biserial correlations were calculated to differentiate non-participants (N = 26) from participants (N = 78), district members who have not offered easements (N = 26) from those who have (N = 52), and participants who have sold easements from those who have not (N = 26, respectively). Factor analysis and logit regression were used to develop predictive models of: (a) joining a district; (b) offering and easement; and (c) successfully selling and easement. Contact with other landowners already engaged in successively higher levels of participatory behavior and contact with formal agricultural land policy communication channels are important to both differentiating among the four levels of MALPF program participation and predicting landowner participatory behavior. Higher levels of participation are evident among landowners located in more remote portions of rapidly growing counties. Landowner attitudes toward government institutions, environmentalism, and farming as a way of life influence MALPF program participation as do landowner practices in financial management of the farm enterprise. These findings suggest MALPF program modifications may be needed in the form of: offering a period of trial district enrollment and trial easement sales; intensifying efforts in marketing and information dissemination; and targeting recruitment efforts at specific segments of Maryland farmland owners.

Orientador: Rogério Teixeira de Faria / Coorientador: Willians César Carrega / Banca: Everton Luis Finoto / Banca: Luiz Fabiano Palaretti / Resumo: O déficit hídrico é considerado um dos principais fatores limitantes na produção de amendoim, com perdas elevadas na região centro-sul do Brasil, principalmente na safra da seca, entre janeiro e junho. A irrigação pode contribuir para aumentar e estabilizar produtividade, além de afetar a fitossanidade da cultura, porém o recurso hídrico disponível é escasso nas regiões de cultivo. Dessa forma, a determinação da demanda hídrica do cultivo é essencial para se obter alta produtividade com maior eficiência de uso de água. O objetivo do trabalho foi avaliar os efeitos de níveis de irrigação plena e deficitária sobre a produtividade e incidência de Cercosporidium personatum em amendoinzeiro semeado na época da seca. O experimento foi conduzido em delineamento de blocos casualizados em esquema fatorial 5 x 2, sendo 5 níveis de irrigação (L1= 8%; L2= 27%; L3= 63%; L4= 94% e L5= 100% da evapotranspiração da cultura) e semeados em 2 épocas, com quatro repetições. Os resultados mostraram que é mais vantajoso o cultivo com irrigação plena em E2, devido aos incrementos de produtividade em até 30% em relação a E1. A irrigação deficitária reduziu altura de plantas, massa de sementes e produtividade de vagens, enquanto que a irrigação plena (L5) proporcionou produtividades de 4.141 a 5.102kg ha-1 em E1 e E2, respectivamente, com incrementos em cerca de três vezes às produtividades obtidas no menor nível de irrigação (L1). O déficit hídrico promoveu maior severidade de danos de C. personatum... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Abstract: Crop water deficit is considered one of the main constraint in the peanut production, with high losses in the central-eastern Brazil, mainly during the dry season, between January and June. Irrigation can contribute to increase and stabilize productivity, as well as affect crop sanity, but the available water resources are scarce in the growing regions. Thus, the determination of the crop water demand is essential to obtain high yield with greater efficiency of water use. The objective of this work was to evaluate the effects of full and deficit irrigation levels on the yield and also the incidence of Cercosporidium personatum in peanut sown in the dry season. The experiment was conducted in a randomized block design in a 5 x 2 factorial scheme, with 5 irrigation levels (L1 = 8%, L2 = 27%, L3 = 63%, L4 = 94% and L5 = 100% of crop evapotranspiration) and sown in 2 planting dates, with four replications. The results showed more advantage for treatment with full irrigation in E2, due to yield increases of up to 30% as compared to E1. Deficit irrigation reduced plant height, seed mass, and pod yield, while full irrigation (L5) provided yields of 4,141 to 5,102 kg ha-1 in E1 and E2, respectively, with increments of about three times the yields obtained at the lowest irrigation level (L1). The water deficit promoted greater severity of C. personatum and there was a lower incidence of the disease in E2. Under ideal water conditions and regardless of sowing time, the cultivar IAC 505... (Complete abstract click electronic access below) / Mestre

This thesis is a documentation of the author's learning journey with the farmers, researchers and development agents in the eastern hills of Nepal.The purpose of the study was to find a solution to the problem of food security faced by the farmers in this area. The basic assumptions underpinning agricultural development in Nepal are that food security can be improved through the application of agricultural technologies and increasing production. The findings of this research question these assumptions.The study demonstrated that external changes which take place in the real world are connected to the internal changes which occur within the individuals and groups involved.An action research methodology was chosen to find alternative strategies to examine the current approaches to addressing the food security situation. The findings revealed three dimensions needing to be addressed to deal with food security at the farming household level. The fact that a collaborative partnership must be established between all the stakeholders involved in order to bring about improvements in the situation was revealed.This called for the conversion of 'experts' into 'co-partners' in the learning process. The learning journey showed that it is possible to initiate change, and the changes achieved indicate a huge potential for researchers and those interested in food security to make a real and lasting difference / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

In this dissertation, I study the effects of climate change on agricultural total factor productivity and crop yields and their variability. In addition, an examination was conducted on the value of select climate change adaptation strategies in forestry. Across the study, the climate change scenarios analyzed were based on the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report. Climate change impacts on the returns to research investments were examined extending the work of Huffman and Evenson (2006), incorporating climatic effects. The conjecture is that the rate of return of agricultural research is falling due to altered resource allocations and unfavorable weather conditions, arising from the early onset of climate change. This work was done using a panel model of Agricultural Total Factor Productivity (TFP) for the forty-eight contiguous states over 1970?1999. Climatic variables such as temperature and amount and intensity of precipitation were added into the model. The main results are (1) climate change affects research productivity, varying by region; (2) this effect is generally negative; (3) additional investments are needed to achieve pre-climate change TFP rates of growth; and (4) the predicted investment increases are on the order of 18%. The second inquiry involved the impact of historical climatic conditions on the statistical distributions of crop yields through mean and variability. This was done statistically, using historical yields for several crops in the US, and climate variables, with annual observations from 1960 to 2007. The estimation shows that climate change is having an effect on the first two moments of the distribution, concluding that crop yield distributions are not stationary. The implication is that risk analysis must consider means and volatility measures that depend on future climatic conditions. The analysis shows that future mean yields will increase, but volatility will also be greater for the studied crops. These results have strong implication for future crop insurance decisions. Finally, an examination was done on the value of select forestry adaptation strategies in the face of climate change. This work is motivated by the known fact that forestry sector is already heavily adapted to changing climatic conditions. Using the Forestry and Agriculture Sector Optimization Model for the United States (FASOM), I found that rotation age is the most effective adaptation strategy being worth about 60 billion dollars, while changes in species and management intensity are worth about 1.5 billion, and land use change between forestry to agriculture is worth about 200,000.

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In consideration of the chronic poverty of farmers in Rwanda as well as in other developing countries where self-sufficient agriculture is practiced, this study examines what the well studied theory of specialization and trade, if implemented, could bring to Rwandan farmers in terms of production and profits. / To attain this objective, a spatial optimization model with linear programming was built and used to maximize the potential production and net returns which were compared to those from the traditional system. The model was built in a way that it also shows the pattern of trade and quantities traded. / The results show that a regional specialization system would allow, on the national level, more production, higher net returns, and more trade than the traditional system (self-sufficient agriculture) as expected according to the theory of specialization and trade. Nevertheless, the net return in some regions decreases in the new system, which necessitates a compensation plan for those regions. / However, it has to be noted that despite these gains, the adoption of the new plans requires a consideration of many other factors that are not covered in this study. Of those factors, the most obvious are the need to improve the transportation and marketing infrastructure, changing farmers' attitudes and objectives towards commercial agriculture, and securing equity, security, and sustainability in the system.

There are many challenges facing business, industry and its operations, the associated service provision and the supply chain management in the global market today. Simon and Sohal (1995, p.14) acknowledge the dramatic and irreversible changes that the South African business environment has undergone over the past five years, from 1990 to 1995. Such changes are mainly shift of focus from inward-looking import substitution with substantial protection to a globally-oriented open economy. Businesses are faced with a challenge to optimise their operations to compete in the new economy. Many organisations have not survived the competition, as they lacked the necessary competitive edge. Challenges faced by these organisations varied from unavailability of suitably qualified management through to challenges with local legislation and the impacts of low-cost production imports, which led to closure of some businesses. From a community standpoint, closure of businesses poses a challenge to the socioeconomy of the inhabitants of the country. This research seeks to establish if the closure of businesses and subsequent impacts on the socio-economic status of communities was as a result of the changes during the globalisation era. Research methodology To address the objectives of the study, a population of tea "experts" was inferred from data received from DTI (2004). This inference was done through use of a ratio of 1 :60 (Manager: Labourers) due to the fact that the industry is labour-intensive. A total of 48 "experts" were identified as an adequate, representative sample for the analysis. These "experts" were from both the private tea industry and the govenunent regulatory departments involved with agricultural activities. A total of 96 questionnaires were sent to the "experts", with a return rate of 50% of these, which equated to the required sample size (of 48 completed questionnaires). Data analysis was carried out through using an Excel spreadsheet and converting frequency of responses to percentages. Objectives The objectives of the study included: • To identify issues and strategic challenges facing the global tea industry in the literature and applying them to the South African tea industry; • Analyse the tea estates in South Africa with specific reference to Magwa Tea Estate in the Eastern Cape, the old Transkei; • Identify appropriate strategies that may enhance the performance of the South African tea industry; • Assess the incentives provided by global governments to tea estates and compare them to the South African conditions; and • Examine the potential of applying some of the global success strategies into the South African tea estate industry. Conclusions While one cannot discount the phenomenon of globalisation, it has been shown that some areas in which business was devoid included capable management teams, flexibility on strategies, strengthening of the Rand and Land Claims against land occupied by the tea estates. The result was a collapse in the tea industry. The recommendations below suggest means by which the tea industry may be revived to carry its original mandate of providing jobs to the rural communities. However, the industry requires the development of sustainable competitive strategies. Recommendations • The organisation should continue to adopt a philosophy m which entrepreneurship is promoted and encouraged; • Ensure employment of a well-trained management team to develop and lead the strategy; • Encourage efficiency of operations; • Encourage government subsidies (especially in the form of regulations on imports to prevent dumping); • Employ appropriate competitive advantage strategies; • Root out corruption and mismanagement of the institution; Development of an interrelationship between the growers and retailers such that the growing of tea is sustainable; • They need to have strong communication skills which must encompass strong negotiation skills. / Thesis (M.B.A.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2006.