As a consequence of climatic change, climate variability is expected to increase and climate extremes to become more frequent. Rising water and food demand are further exacerbating the risks to global water and food security. The variability but also the spatial inter-connectedness in our globalized world make our systems more vulnerable to shocks and disasters. To sustain the global water and food security, more knowledge about risks, especially risks of simultaneous shocks is needed. This thesis maps and quantifies risks to global water and food security from a water-food-climate perspective. It starts on a global scale looking at water security in major river basins and then concentrates on major food producing regions of three important crops. The thesis explores how storage can buffer inter- and intra-regional hydrological variability. A water balance model is developed and used to find hotspots of water shortages and to identify river basins where more investment in infrastructure is needed to improve and sustain water security. Looking at food security, global wheat, maize and soybean breadbaskets are identified and used to estimate risks of simultaneous production shocks. Focusing on wheat, I apply different copula approaches to model joint risks of low yields. It is shown quantitatively that (i) it is important to include spatial dependencies in risks studies and that (ii) inter-regional risk pooling could decrease post-disaster liabilities of governments and international organizations. The last part of the thesis focuses on climate impacts on food production. Relevant climate variables for crop growth in the breadbaskets are identified and joint climate risks are estimated using regular vine copulas. It is shown that so far, only wheat has experienced an increase in simultaneous climate risks. In maize and soybean production regions, positive and negative climate risk changes are offsetting each other on a global scale. Looking at future projections, however, it is shown that under a 1.5 and 2 °C global mean warming, simultaneous climate risks increase for all three crops, especially for maize where the return periods of all five breadbaskets experiencing climate risks decrease from 16 to every second year. The findings of this thesis can inform policy makers, businesses and international organizations about risks to global water and food security resulting from climate variability and extremes. It indicates where policies and infrastructure investments are needed to maintain water security, it can assist in building inter-governmental risk pooling schemes and contribute to current climate policy discussions.

Shandong Province, renowned as China’s greatest agricultural province, is dominated by smallholders growing rain-fed crops and vulnerable to severe weather shocks that can increase poverty rates. Weather index insurance, an innovative agricultural risk management product, may be an effective mechanism to address vulnerability to catastrophic weather risk in rural regions of China, including Shandong. This project evaluated current household livelihood and risk management strategies and farmer interest in weather index insurance. Data from 174 participants were collected using a methodology that included focus groups, questionnaires, and personal interviews. Despite limited access to formal financial services, Shandong farmers generally employ informal, well-diversified income strategies and rely on no-interest informal loans from community members to manage adverse impacts of natural disasters, such as drought. Households sometimes rely on reducing consumption as a risk coping strategy; however, unlike many regions of the world, Shandong farmers do not tend to sell livelihood assets to manage weather shocks. A majority of interviewed participants were interested in weather index insurance after they understood its basic concept; however, participants expressed concerns regarding basis risk and program implementation.

En milieu rural malgache, la terre constitue le principal moyen d’existence des paysans. Toute la vie des ménages est centrée sur l’exploitation agricole, qui mobilise hommes et femmes, membres de la famille et de la communauté comme main-d’œuvre. Mais depuis quelques décennies, particulièrement dans les régions des Hauts-Plateaux, les parcelles cultivables, héritées et partagées depuis plusieurs générations, deviennent de plus en plus exiguës. Les revenus agricoles ne permettent donc plus aux familles de subvenir à leurs besoins fondamentaux. Ainsi, face à la menace d’insécurité alimentaire, aux besoins croissants de ressources monétaires (éducation, santé, etc.), aux risques liés aux parcours de la vie et à l’exploitation agricole, les ménages sont contraints de diversifier leurs sources de revenu. Pour avoir davantage de revenus monétaires, ils vendent leur force de travail hors de l’exploitation familiale. Les modes d’organisation économique se trouvent alors modifiés et les ménages doivent opter pour de nouvelles stratégies à court, moyen ou long terme dans leurs activités productives. Ce travail de thèse analyse, pour deux communes rurales des Hauts-Plateaux, la mise en œuvre des différentes stratégies à travers les structures des ménages et les réseaux de solidarités intergénérationnelle et communautaire. La recherche montre que l’organisation actuelle des activités permet d’assurer à la fois la continuité de l’exploitation agricole, la survie de la famille et la cohésion sociale. / In Madagascar rural areas, the land is the main livelihood of farmers. The community and all family members’, men and women, are involved on farming. But in recent decades, arable plots on the Central Highlands, inherited from ancestors and shared for many generations become more and more cramped. The incomes are insufficient for family’s basic needs. Thus, facing the food insecurity threatens, the increases of need for money (education, health, etc.), the life and farm risks, households are forced to diversify their sources of income. To earn more, they sell their labor outside the family farm. Then, the economic organization style is modified and households must find new short and medium term strategies in their productive activities. This book analyzes the implementation of different strategies through household structures and networks of solidarity (intergenerational and community) in two rural towns in the Highlands. Research shows that current organization of activities ensures the continuity of the farm, the family survival and social cohesion.

No description available.