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GOVERNANCE, NATURAL RESOURCES AND LOCAL DEVELOPMENT IN MOZAMBIQUEMassuanganhe, Israel Jacob 18 March 2010 (has links)
The role that agriculture should play in economic development has been recognised for years. In
recent years, concern has been expressed over rising agricultural and food prices. The world market
prices for major food commodities have risen sharply to historic highs of more than 60 percent above
levels just two years ago. Many factors have contributed to the rise in food commodity prices. Some
factors reflect trends of slower growth in production and more rapid growth in demand that have
contributed to a tightening of world balances of grains and oilseeds over the last decade. Other
factors that have added to global food commodity price inflation include the declining value of the US
dollar, rising energy prices, increasing agricultural costs of production, growing foreign exchange
holdings by major food-importing countries, and policies adopted recently by some exporting and
importing countries to mitigate their own food price inflation (Trostle, 2008).
Mozambique has a vast extension of land and diversity of natural resources. Resources are
inadequately used, the rural income continues to fall, and poverty is increasing. The rural standard of
living has been deteriorating year by year. To date, estimations reveal that between 60 and 80
percent of cultivated land in all the provinces is concentrated in areas between 0.2 and 1 ha. For a
sample of 192 farmers, using a translog stochastic production frontier like that of Bravo-Ureta and
Pinheiro (1993), who estimated a Cobb-Douglas total value product frontier for analysis purposes,
the study found that the average economic efficiency (EE), technical efficiency (TE) and allocative
efficiency (AE) for the sample were 11.6%, 83.0% and 13.7% respectively. These results suggest
that there is considerable room to maximise resource usage and increase agricultural output without
additional input and given the existing technology.
The adoption of new technologies designed to enhance farm output and income has received
particular attention as a means to accelerate economic development. However, output growth is not
only determined by technological innovations, but also by the efficiency with which available
technologies are used in the absence of inefficiency factors. As Bravo-Ureta and Pinheiro (1993)
noted, the evidence presented in this study suggests that there is much room for improving the
efficiency of natural resource management in general. The results based on frontier methodology
are generally consistent with the notion that local actors play an important role in the management of
local resources; consequently, public investments designed to enhance human and social capital at
local level can be expected to generate additional skills and output even in the absence of new
technologies. The participation of citizens in all stages is crucial.
It is recognised that qualitative variables have influence and potential importance in efficiency.
Governance is considered within the framework of power, process and practice and how these have
shaped peasant access to and control and use of natural resources. Over the years, state visions of
appropriate agriculture development have largely been extended to the peasant sector through a centrally directed structure and process. Pioneering efforts at decentralising entrustments over the
use and management of resources to the peasant communities have largely resulted in
recentralisation at the district level, where such efforts are still practised in the trickle-down mode.
This is in part because the policy thrust seeking to empower the peasant communities is supply-led,
and thus defined according to the terms and processes of external agents, including funders and
central governments.
The research found that by improving institutionsâ, citizensâ and communitiesâ capacity to address
local governance and decision-making through prominent, decentralised natural resources
management policies, they could participate more effectively in local development, gain experience
in democratic processes, and hold local officials responsible for their decisions. The study concluded
that natural resources play a strategic role in rural economies both as a potential source of long-term
development and as the essential contributor to sustained food security. Access by the poor to
natural resources (land, forests, water, fisheries, pastures, etc.) is essential for sustainable poverty
reduction. Many rural communities are dependent on natural resources in one way or another.
Decentralising natural resource management and using local decision-making power is critical to
improve the revenue generation of citizens and local authorities. Local representative bodies need
power over the resources that affect rural sustainable livelihoods in order to become legitimate actors
around which civic organisations and citizens rally for justice, sustainable livelihoods and economic
improvement. Decentralising natural resource management (NRM) can give local governments
allocative powers over lucrative opportunities, both of which can help build local government
legitimacy. In short, local development can emerge.
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EFFECTS OF CUSTOMS UNION TARIFFS ON DOMESTIC RICE COMPETITIVENESS: THE CASE OF IRRIGATED RICE IN NIGERAbdourahmane, Touré Ali 14 July 2011 (has links)
Nigerâs irrigated rice production system was evaluated within the context of the countryâs
common external tariff regime. The effects of the common external tariff (CET) on the
performance of the irrigated rice production system were evaluated at various comparison
points where local rice enters into competition with imported rice and by considering the
main rice marketing systems (retail and wholesale markets). These comparisons were made
taking into account the various brands of imported rice that are commercialised in the
country. The results of the policy analysis matrix (PAM) base scenario for the irrigated rice
system under the CET show that the system is generally competitive (positive private
profitability) and has potential for growth (positive economic profitability). These results
are disaggregated by type of rice quality, type of rice market (retail or wholesale) and by
two points of comparison (Niamey and Tillabery).
At both points of comparison, the PAM indicators show positive financial profitability,
indicating that the system is generally competitive and that operators are making some
financial gains. Moreover, the irrigated rice production enterprise reveals positive
economic profitability for both retailers and wholesalers. Therefore, as an economic
activity, it generates net positive income for the national economy per unit of land devoted
to this activity. It can be maintained that despite the fact that the inputs used in irrigated rice
production are affected by the various common external tariff (CET) measures, the activity still performs to a level that permits the various actors to earn some positive income and
sustain their businesses. Despite its competitiveness and efficiency, however, irrigated rice
production still performs below potential because it lacks certain additional incentives.
To investigate this issue, various sensitivity analyses were performed, using single factors
as well as simultaneous changes in several factors. These sensitivity analyses were
performed in order to diagnose the effects of possible policy changes on elements such as
financial and social profitability, production incentives, and protection coefficients. The
sensitivity analyses show that private and social profits, ceteris paribus, are sensitive to
improvements in technological factors such as farm-level productivity and post-harvest
techniques that enhance the milling conversion rate of paddy into milled rice. The
incentives and protection coefficients are also found to be sensitive to possible policy
changes. Furthermore, private and social profits, including incentives and protection
coefficients, are sensitive to changes in economic factors relating to the reduction of import
duties on inputs, as well as to increases in import duties on imported rice and changes in
exchange rates.
Nigerâs irrigated rice system generally performs well under the CET regime, but because
certain resources are diverted away from it, the system is in fact being taxed. There is a
need to provide greater incentives to everyone active in the system, in the form of
technological improvements (farm-level productivity improvement and post-harvest quality
enhancement). Greater incentives should also be given in terms of improving marketing
channels, especially retail marketing, where a great number of women rice traders are
active. More research needs to be conducted on this aspect.
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CLIMATE CHANGE AND VULNERABILITY TO FOOD INSECURITY AMONG SMALLHOLDER FARMERS: A CASE STUDY OF GWERU AND LUPANE DISTRICTS IN ZIMBABWEMutsvangwa, Eness P 18 August 2011 (has links)
This thesis assesses the vulnerability of smallholder farmers to food insecurity in Gweru and
Lupane districts of Zimbabwe and links this to climate change. Current changes in climate for
most parts of Zimbabwe have resulted in increased frequency of droughts, dry spells and
erratic rainfall. This has resulted in loss of food production and smallholder farmers are most
vulnerable to these climatic catastrophes as they affect the food security status of the
household. Few studies have been done at local and household levels, most climatic studies
have been done at global and national levels. This study seeks to contribute to this knowledge
gap.
Poverty and food security studies have proved that poor and food insecure households are
more vulnerable to climate change, considering that they have limited options to curb against
climate change. Using data obtained from a survey carried out in Gweru and Lupane districts
in Zimbabwe, descriptive statistics analysis was undertaken to characterize the households, in
terms of gender, education of the household head, cropping patterns of the household,
perceptions to climate change and also organizations working within the communities and
how they help reduce vulnerability to climate change. Results show that cereal crop
production is common and important in these two districts, considering that the largest pieces
of land are allocated to cereals. Thus cereals constitute a large proportion to the householdâs
food security. Chuadhuriâs model of measuring vulnerability to poverty was used to measure
vulnerability to food insecurity for households in Gweru and Lupane districts. Results show
about 88% of the households in both districts are vulnerable to food insecurity thus, have
more chances of being negatively impacted by climate change.
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THE EVALUATION OF CREDIT RISK IN STRUCTURED FINANCE LENDING TRANSACTIONS IN AGRICULTURELubinda, Mwala 17 October 2011 (has links)
The study focuses on the evaluation of credit risk in Structured Finance lending transactions in agriculture. The secondary motivation of the study is that Structured Finance lending techniques have the potential of increasing access to credit for farmers, especially smallholder farmers, in the agricultural sectors of developing and emerging countries. Recent studies, in agriculture finance, done by the World Bank, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), highlights that application of Structured Finance lending techniques such as warehouse receipts, agricultural value chain financing and securitization, inter alia, has the potential of deepening credit services in agricultural sectors, especially in developing countries. Access to credit services, among other things, has the ability to unlock the potential for agriculture in developing and emerging countries.
The primary motivation of the study is the observation that most of the studies that have been done so far, with regard to the application of Structured Finance in agriculture, have primarily focused on the principles underlying Structured Finance lending techniques in agriculture and not on the fundamental question that is of importance to a lending institution, in any lending transaction, namely: how to evaluate or measure the credit risk associated with Structured Finance lending transactions in agriculture. Therefore, the study contributes to the body of literature on Structured Finance in agriculture finance by developing a model or tool that can be used to measure credit risk in agricultural based Structured Finance lending transactions.
Therefore, the primary objective of the study is to develop a credit risk model for agricultural-based Structured Finance lending transactions. To develop the credit risk model, the study conceptualizes theoretical framework of modelling credit risk as proposed by Merton (1974) as well as the principles underlying Structured Finance lending techniques in agriculture. Time series econometric forecasting techniques and risk simulation techniques are used to achieve the primary objective of the study. The developed model measures credit risk as the Probability of Default (PD).
To demonstrate the application of the developed credit risk model, the study uses a conceptualized example, where the production of white and yellow maize in the Free State province of South Africa, during the 2009/2010 production season, is financed by Structured Finance loans. Using the developed model, the study shows that the probability of a farmer in the Free State province, defaulting on a Structured Finance white maize production loan with a face value of R3783/ha (for instance) is 0.0347 or 3.47%.
The output of the developed model, which is the probability of default (PD), can be used by agricultural financial institutions (or agricultural lenders in general) to appraise Structured Finance loans; appropriately price Structured Finance loans and determine the amount of capital to hold against credit risk, inter alia. In other words, the developed credit risk model is a tool that can help financial institutions to manage credit risk in agricultural based Structured Finance lending transactions.
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ECONOMIC GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT THROUGH AGRICULTURE: THE CASE OF THE NORTH WEST PROVINCE OF SOUTH AFRICACloete, Philippus Christoffel 17 October 2011 (has links)
The overall objective of the study was two-folded, firstly to improve the success of rural
agricultural development in the North West Province (NWP) through the development of an
institutional framework and secondly, to quantify the impact of the proposed institutional
changes on the different agricultural sectors in the province. The development of an institutional
framework contributes towards the existing mechanisms available to role-players and decision
makers involved with rural agricultural development. The ability to quantify and simulate the
impact of changes in the institutional framework addresses the concerns of researchers that
theory is outstripping empirical research to an excessive extent in the field of institutional
economics. Furthermore, by simulating the impact of the proposed institutional framework, indepth
knowledge on the economic impact of rural agricultural development in the NWP was
gained. In order to reach the first objective, a review/study was undertaken of the principles of the New
Institutional Economics theory and how it relates to agricultural development in the NWP. This
was followed by a SWOT-analysis to identify the main agricultural opportunities and factors
inhibiting rural agricultural development in the province. From this, an institutional framework
was developed to create an enabling environment for rural agricultural development in the NWP.
The proposed institutional arrangements/improvements include amongst others: the
establishment of public-private partnerships between government, private sector and
communities, the introduction of rural finance systems, equity sharing schemes, integrated
research-training programmes and market access solutions. A strategic framework for the
implementation of the proposed institutions and institutional arrangements was also developed.
The second objective was achieved through the application of two methodological approaches.
In the first approach, the economic impact of the proposed institutional framework was estimated
through a partial macro-economic equilibrium model, calibrated to a Social Accounting Matrix
for the NWP. Different scenarios were simulated, with the land reform programme that served
as a proxy for calculating the impact of the proposed institutional changes. From this, the
baseline scenario assumed 30% of agricultural land being redistributed with a 20% success rate.
This scenario closely mimics reality in the province. The second scenario assumed a success
rate of 35%, with the success rate in the third scenario being 50%. The main results from this
analysis include the quantitative impact of the land reform policy on the different agricultural
sectors of the province as well as the impact of the proposed institutional framework thereon.
The simulated results proved that development policies (i.e. land redistribution) yield different
economy-wide impacts within the various agricultural sub-sectors of the province. Results from
the baseline scenario show that the grain and oil-seed sectors of the province have the most
significant impact on the economy, reducing provincial GDP by 6.19% compared to the 4.19%
of the livestock sector. Moreover, under the assumptions of the baseline scenario, the grain and
oilseeds sub-sector will reduce employment opportunities with 25 307, and government income
with an estimated R 160 million. The rest of the scenarios confirm that the creation of an enabling environment for rural
agricultural development through the introduction of the proposed institutional framework will
significantly reduce the impacts of development policies. For example, in scenario 3 the grain
and oilseed sector reported a 3.19% decline in the contribution to GDP compared to the 6.19%
under the assumptions of the baseline scenario. The impact on employment opportunities is also
likely to decrease by 3% for every 15% increase in the success rate.
The second methodological approach entails the calculation of three sets of economic multipliers
(production, value added and labour). The calculated multipliers were used to determine the
economy-wide impact of the proposed institutional framework. Despite numerous shortcomings
of economic multipliers, this analysis was performed to quantify the direct, indirect and induced
economy-wide impacts resulting from the proposed institutional changes. Results from the
multiplier analysis confirm the positive impact that the creation of an enabling environment
might have on the proposed land reform policies.
The main conclusion of the study is that the lack of proper and functional institutions could be
seen as the main reason for the high rate of rural agricultural development failure in the NWP.
Thus, should government fail to address the identified institutional shortcomings, the success
rate of rural agricultural development will remain a mere 20%, which will have severe
consequences for the economy and the rural people in the province. It therefore calls for the
creation of an enabling environment that will support rural agricultural development. This could
be achieved through the implementation of the proposed institutional framework; however,
commitment from all role-players involved in rural agricultural development will be a
prerequisite for success in this regard.
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MEASURING ASYMMETRIC PRICE AND VOLATILITY SPILLOVER IN THE SOUTH AFRICAN POULTRY MARKETUchezuba, David Ifeanyi 19 October 2011 (has links)
Over the last decade South Africa experienced two events during which food prices increased
significantly. The periods of high food prices were also characterised by a high degree of
volatility in prices. The result of the aforementioned events were that food security in South
Africa was threatened, but at the same time evidence emerged that due to the current market
structure in the agricultural industry certain role players used their market power to
manipulate food prices. In an effort to better understand pricing behaviour in the food
industry it is necessary to investigate the nature of price transmission in different agro-food
chains. It is furthermore important to understand the nature of price volatility and the degree
to which such volatility spillover from one level of a value chain to the next.
The primary objective of this study is to measure asymmetric price and volatility spillover in
the broiler value chain. The poultry (broiler) industry was chosen as a case study because
there is an increasing demand for broiler meat in South Africa, culminating in increased per
capita consumption compared to other meat categories such as the red meats. It is estimated
that the per capita consumption of broiler meat increased steadily from 2001 to 2009. The
sector is one of largest and fastest growing agricultural sectors in the country, contributing
significantly to the total gross production value of agriculture. The specific issues addressed
in measuring asymmetric price and volatility spillover in the broiler value chain includes: (i)
the identification of the direction of flow of information (causality) between producers and
retailers, (ii) examining the degree of asymmetric price transmission across the farm-retail
value chain, (iii) quantifying volatility and volatility spillover across farm and retail prices,
and (iv) investigating volatility spillover from feed materials to farm and retail market prices. The data used for this study include farm and retail poultry prices, as well as the daily nearmarket
monthly spot prices for yellow maize, sunflower seed and soybeans. Two types of
adjustment models, namely the threshold autoregressive (TAR) and momentum threshold
autoregressive (M-TAR) models were used to investigate asymmetry in farm-retail market
prices, whereas the exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity
(EGARCH) model was used to measure the price volatility and the volatility spillover effect
between retail and farm prices and between these prices and poultry feed ingredients (yellow
maize, soybean and sunflower oilseed).
The result obtained with the M-TAR model shows that the relationship between farm and
retail prices is asymmetric. The retail price was found to respond asymmetrically to both
positive and negative shocks arising from changes in producer prices, but the response is
greater when the shocks are negative, i.e. when the producer price rises to lower marketing
margins in the value chain. The sizes of the adjustment parameters in the farm-retail
combination reveal that retail prices do not respond to shocks completely and
instantaneously, but respond within a distributed time lag. The results indicate that within one
month, the retail prices adjust so as to eliminate approximate 2.8 % of a unit-negative change
in the deviation from the equilibrium relationship caused by changes in producer prices. This
implies that the retailers must increase their marketing margin by 2.8% in order to respond
completely to a unit-negative change in farm prices. The results show that farm price granger
cause retail price, implying that retailers depend on what happens at the farm level in order to
form their market expectations.
The results obtained with the M-TAR error correction model were to a great extent consistent
with the results obtained with the EGARCH model. For instance, results from the volatility
model show that the magnitude of volatility in the retail and farm prices for the periods
2000M1 to 2008M8 is 1.8% and 2.8%, respectively. The volatility in the farm price was
found to approximate the volatility implied by the adjustment shocks in the farm-retail price
relationship investigated with the M-TAR error correction model. The results of the
asymmetric volatility measurement show that there is significant asymmetric volatility
spillover from the farm to the retail market implying that the response to rising prices differs
from the response to a price decline. This relationship was also observed with the asymmetric
price transmission model. An investigation into the impact of the prices of the major broiler
feed materials, namely yellow maize, sunflower and soybean, shows that there is a volatility
spillover from the yellow maize price to farm and retail prices. This implies that any change
in the price of yellow maize will have a significant impact on the retail and farm prices.
Market influence also flows from the sunflower oilcake price to the retail market price.
The presence of an asymmetric relationship between farm and retail prices signifies the
existence of concentration and market power. In a situation like this, tighter anti-competition
laws will discourage anti-competitive behaviours. It will be worthwhile to increase access to
agricultural information systems amongst the role players in order to reduce information
bottlenecks in the vertical market system.
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TRANSACTION COSTS AND CATTLE FARMERS' CHOICE OF MARKETING CHANNEL IN NORTH-CENTRAL NAMIBIAShiimi, Theofilus 17 November 2010 (has links)
Approximately 70 % of the Namibian population depends on agricultural activities for their
livelihoods. Moreover, agriculture remains an important sector in Namibia, because its national
economy is widely dependent on agricultural production. However, two distinct land tenure
systems (communal and commercial farming sectors) separated by the Veterinary Cordon Fence
(VCF) complicated the marketing of cattle from the Northern Communal Areas (NCA). Cattle
producers in the NCA have the option to market their cattle via the formal or informal market.
Although efforts have been made to encourage producers to market their cattle through the
formal market, limited improvement has been observed. In this study a number of factors were
analysed to determine their influence on the decisions made in respect of cattle marketing.
Factors influencing the decision of whether or not to sell through the formal market were
analysed using the Probit Model. Factors influencing the proportion of cattle sold through the
formal market in cases where the producer has decided to use that market to sell her/his cattle
were analysed using the Truncated Model. Testing the Tobit Model against the alternative of a
two-part model was done by means of Craggâs Model. Factor analysis was used to study the
underlying structure resulting in transaction costs.
The empirical results revealed that problems related to transport to MeatCo, improved
productivity, accessibility to market-related information and accessibility to information on new
technology are some of the factors significantly affecting the decision of whether or not to sell through the formal market. Payment arrangements by MeatCo, animal handling, accessibility to
new information technology, age of respondents and lack of access to marketing expertise are
some of the factors influencing the proportion of cattle sold through the formal market.
The results suggest that substantially more information is obtained by modelling cattle-marketing
behaviour as a two-decision-making framework instead of a single-decision-making framework.
Factor analysis identified discounting factors, delivery aspects and market features as the
underlying structure resulting in transaction costs.
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IMPLICATIONS OF TRADE LIBERALISATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH FOR SOUTH AFRICAN AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIESTeweldemedhin, Mogos Yakob 22 November 2010 (has links)
The main aim of this study is to examine the impact of trade liberalisation on agricultureâs
ability to contribute to economic growth and poverty reduction in South Africa. Several
secondary objectives were examined that address: (i) the impact of trade liberalisation on
the South African agricultural international trade performance; (ii) the relationship between
trade liberalisation and poverty alleviation; (iii) the impact of trade liberalisation on Total
Factor Productivity (TFP) in agricultural industries, and (iv) the short-term source of
agricultural adjustments. Different methodologies were applied to achieve the specified
sub-objectives, including calculation of the Intra-Industrial Trade (IIT) coefficientsâ (with its
key determinants) Gravity model, the Error Correction Vector Model and the Exact
Maximum Likelihood method.
The Gini coefficient of exports and imports was calculated as 0.55 and 0.62, respectively.
The aggregate, with respect to the South African agricultural IIT, was higher than the
average attributed to advanced countries. This shows that South Africa needs to reinforce
the position of a bilateral agreement, which should be accompanied by regional or even
multilateral liberalisation. The econometric analysis conducted on determinants of high IIT,
gives a more magnified effect of the coefficients of export to import ratios and the TIMB
(trade balance). If the South African industries implement and increase trade liberalisation on the diversified level of industrial specialisation, the IIT level would remain high, and
significant economic gain might be achieved.
The gravity model finding shows that all variables were significant at one percent, and
carried the expected sign. Only the EU dummy variable had an inverse relationship,
implying that the EU trade agreement creates a negative impact on export capacity for
South African farmers. Essentially, South African farmers are not in a position to compete
with the subsidised farmers of the development involved. These results have several
important policy implications for South Africa. Firstly, trade agreements, whether
implemented unilaterally or bilaterally, will enhance potential trade flows between South
Africa and other countries or regions. Secondly, from an export promotion standpoint, the
distance variable in the modelâs results shows that importing countriesâ per capita income is
elastic and significant in determining export. Therefore, it is important for South Africa to
maintain trade links and, in order to realise export potential, to extend these to high per
capita income countries or regions. On the other hand, to avoid vulnerability and potential
crises in EU regions or countries where the largest proportion of South Africaâs export is
directed, it is important that South Africa continues to concentrate its export promotion
efforts in other regions of the world.
The study has also tested the impact of trade liberalisation using both the cross-sectional
and time series approach, covering nine agricultural commodities; the cross-sectional
approach covered the period of 1995-2007, and the time-series covered the period of 1970-
2007. Both approaches validate the above proposition with a high degree of statistical
reliability.
Finally, the study identified the main sources of agricultural economic growth by categorising
the variables into five main areas: cyclical reversion, structural policies and institutions,
stabilisation policies, cyclical volatility and external conditions. The components of the
structural policies and institutions category were found to be statistically significant, and
were positive at the specified significance level (only RDGDP was related negatively). This
implies that the growth was achieved with improved education, financial depth and trade
openness. However, the negative relationship of RDGDP shows that the sector is suffering from debt crisis. Subsequently, farmers need to follow an effective debt management
system.
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A STUDY ON THE INTEGRATION OF POTATO MARKETS IN SOUTH AFRICAdu Preez, Leandré 14 August 2012 (has links)
Potatoes are the most important vegetable product in South Africa and the third most
important food crop in the world. Potatoes are planted in all the regions and sold on all of the
Fresh Produce Markets of South Africa. The markets serve as the price setter for the
industry and producers are not sure about the movement and the fairness of prices they
receive. Marketing strategies are based on price information and producers cannot
accurately determine their strategy if price information is incorrect or unavailable. The study
therefore investigated the integration of potato markets in South Africa based on price data.
The primary objective of the study is to analyse market integration within the potato industry
of South Africa. The existence of price relationships and spatial linkages between markets
are determined by the study. Market integration was determined by applying the Threshold
Vector Error Correction Model (TVECM). The TVECM is used more often in recent literature
and is methodologically stronger than some of its predecessors. The method allows for nonstationarity
of variables and considers the possibility of non-linear and asymmetric type of
variables. The pivotal role played by transaction costs are incorporated into the model. The
study also tested whether a two or three regime model would best fit the data, instead of
imposing a specific regime. The data used in the study is weekly data ranging from January
1999 to June 2009. The study was done on eight selected Fresh Produce Markets (FPM)
namely Johannesburg (JHB), Pretoria (PTA), Bloemfontein (BFN), Kimberley (KBY), Durban
(DBN), Cape Town (CTN), Pietermaritzburg (PMB) and Port Elizabeth (PE).
The following results were obtained. First, on the statistical properties of the variables - all
price variables are non stationary. Based on co-integration analyses long run relationships
between all market pairs considered were found. The market pairs are thus co-integrated or
integrated in the long run. Second, after results suggested non-linearity, decisions were
made to test for the presence of market integration in the short run by fitting TVECM. A set
of two and three regime TVECM were estimated. Overall, results indicated that in the short
run, the markets are not integrated. In addition, results from regime switching showed no
discernible pattern on the time of switches between regimes.
In conclusion the results from the direction of causality test indicated a one directional flow
with Johannesburg FPM being the main destination market. Overall, results attest to a prior expectation that Johannesburg is the leading FPM in South Africa. Markets are integrated in
the long run but are not integrated in the short run.
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FINANCIAL BENCHMARKING ANALYSIS: NORTHERN CAPE FARMERSHenning, Janus I F 14 August 2012 (has links)
The primary objective of the study was to develop a financial measurement-based
benchmarking system for GWK on the financial status of their producers. Financial
benchmarking systems provide the producers with opportunities to evaluate their past
and current financial performance, not only to their own financial status but also to other
producers that are included in the benchmarking data. To have a better understanding
of the performance of the farmâs financial status and to have a possible explanation of
why certain changes had occurred, the first secondary objective was to compare trends
of the whole agriculture sector of South Africa with those that occurred to the GWK
producers in the study. It was found that the GWK producers had followed more or less
the same trends than those experienced by the South African agricultural sector.
After the trends were compared between GWK producers and the South African
agricultural sector, the limited financial statements obtained from GWK, were analyzed
by calculating the financial measurements for each farm over the five years. This was
done in order to determine the border values that can be used to divide each
measurement into three performance groups. These groups will be used to determine
the position for each measurement of a farm relevant to the other farms in the
benchmarking system. When the producer has seen the indication that a certain
measurement is in the midpoint of bottom performance groups, he knows there are
other options available to improve that position, as is already being done by other
producers. This leads to another secondary objective that was identified and analyzed.When a producer wants to improve one or even more than one financial measurement,
certain changes have to be made that will influence the income statement and balance
sheet. As these statements are interactive and a change in one area of the statement
will have an influence on the overall results, it is necessary to have an idea or indication
of what these influences can be. To provide some background on what the possible
outcomes can be the correlation between the measurements and their determinants
were determined. These correlations will provide important information on what the
possible results of a certain change by a producer on a farm can be. As the financial
market is ever-changing, the changes cannot always be hundred percent predictable,
but one can at least provide an idea of what can be expected.
The last secondary objective is to rank the farms according to their operating efficiency
for each enterprise, using DEA. As results indicated, this method of benchmarking can
be used in coordination with the border measurement benchmarking system. The
difference that exists is that the DEA benchmarking system only divides the farms into
two groups as being efficient and inefficient. These two groups can be compared to the
results obtained from the border measurement benchmarking system; the farms
identified as being the efficient ones are mostly the farms that had most of their financial
measurements in the top performance and the top half of the midpoint performance
groups. The opposite is also true for the farms identified as being inefficient.
Conclusions and recommendations from the study include that a benchmarking system
can provide very important information to producers on the performance of their farms,
not only to past performance, but also with regard to their rivals. When certain
adjustments have to be made to improve the performance of the farm, it is important to
remember the possible correlation that exists between the financial measurements and
what the possible outcomes can be. The correlation between the measurements is also
a point that is available for future research. Lastly, it is recommended that when a
farmâs financial position is benchmarked to other competitors, more than one
benchmarking system is to be used. This will provide more accurate information to the
actual performance of the farm, as a wider spectrum is covered by using for example
the border measurement and DEA benchmarking systems.
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